Model Watch For Tour 1

[Paul Sherman]

12z GFS Shows a Fast Start to Tour 1

Temps of 77f and Dp's of 65f with Cape around 2,500jkg across Central Oklahoma.

All pie in the sky but nice to see something for Saturday 30th April, some other Chase ops in the week with the ridge getting smashed to oblivion by Friday 6th

Hope it continues to improve

[Paul Sherman]

Oops Spoke To Soon It Seems

GFS Now coming into the better Mesoscale Model Resolution and.....well anyone up early enough please do not look at the 00z Run.

It has a great Set-Up for the 28th when we land and also a great looking LP in Kansas for the 29th for official landing day.

Again the later part of the run can probably be binned but we are getting into territory where even the SPC Goes upto Friday 29th April.

Happy Easter GFS

[Dorsetbred]

Oops Spoke To Soon It Seems

GFS Now coming into the better Mesoscale Model Resolution and.....well anyone up early enough please do not look at the 00z Run.

It has a great Set-Up for the 28th when we land and also a great looking LP in Kansas for the 29th for official landing day.

Again the later part of the run can probably be binned but we are getting into territory where even the SPC Goes upto Friday 29th April.

Happy Easter GFS

Been there, done it

Looking decidedly YUK this morning, your right Paul

Seems as though the wait is on until the 5th before something appears on the outlook

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

Seriously starting to think about getting the activities Maps Out for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas now, also Superdrug doing a Buy 1 get 2 Free on Sun-Tan Lotion at the moment which could come in handy.

There will be plenty to do, Bit of Skiing in Colorado at Breckenridge should really P**s a certain member of the Michaelwaites off :ph34r: :lol: And Amarillo is on route

I Wonder if the Travel Insurance covers Skiing and Boarding ??

[dogs32]

Yep

Seriously starting to think about getting the activities Maps Out for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas now, also Superdrug doing a Buy 1 get 2 Free on Sun-Tan Lotion at the moment which could come in handy.

There will be plenty to do, Bit of Skiing in Colorado at Breckenridge should really P**s a certain member of the Michaelwaites off :ph34r: :lol: And Amarillo is on route

I Wonder if the Travel Insurance covers Skiing and Boarding ??

Paul May 6th looks good for Cape but jet stream is very bad.I think it was the 6th.............

but the days leading up to this look very bad

CIN not good either and lack of moistre until another re load

maybe things will get better nearer the time

I feel sorry for u guys...but still would hold on

[Paul Sherman]

Do you know anyone who owns a boat then Pat ??

Dont fancy sailing around the Gulf Of Mexico

[dogs32]

Do you know anyone who owns a boat then Pat ??

Dont fancy sailing around the Gulf Of Mexico

LOLOLOL....u could head for the beach LOL..

well hoping things turn around for u lot...costs a fortune to see sun

whats the most reliable time frame for the States

as they are more accurate in this department

[Dorsetbred]

Yep

Seriously starting to think about getting the activities Maps Out for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas now, also Superdrug doing a Buy 1 get 2 Free on Sun-Tan Lotion at the moment which could come in handy.

There will be plenty to do, Bit of Skiing in Colorado at Breckenridge should really P**s a certain member of the Michaelwaites off :ph34r: :lol: And Amarillo is on route

I Wonder if the Travel Insurance covers Skiing and Boarding ??

Rather than take Ian's role of activities coordinator, here's some suggestions:

In Austin we could go to:

The Museum of the Weird

The Museum of Ephemerata

The Cathedral of Junk

OR go

Searching For The Elusive East-Tex Bigfoot

Or go chasing

The Ever Mysterious Marfa Lights (Some chasing at least)

Fresh snow right now in Breckenridge on their webcam, so skiing still is a possibility.

A trip to the top of Pikes Peak is also a good event, and one to get high on

[Dorsetbred]

LOLOLOL....u could head for the beach LOL..

well hoping things turn around for u lot...costs a fortune to see sun

whats the most reliable time frame for the States

as they are more accurate in this department

Pat

I now from the time I've spent in the USA, that the seven day window is really the point where accuracy begins, and with that your aiming quite high say 90%.

[dogs32]

Pat

I now from the time I've spent in the USA, that the seven day window is really the point where accuracy begins, and with that your aiming quite high say 90%.

thx..I just forgotten as the GFS is more reliable than the UK version.............well heres hoping things change for u

[Paul Sherman]

Just been told that although they have 260cm of Snow Breckenridge closes it's ski lifts on Sunday 24th April Plenty going on in Colorado from searching around tinternet

[chionomaniac]

Are there places to go for walks to get great photography opportunities?

[dogs32]

this is looking nasty.....

is there another Model thats fairly good for Long Range??

I know the USA GFS is good for 7-10 ish.SOMETIMES

The Met use different Models for different time periods and switch as the time counts down to a event

[gpspete]

I was looking to the southeast of Dallas on the forcast models towards Louisiana coast i was thinking a thunderstorm possibilty as the afternoon seabreezes bring the hot gulf air ashore and it hits the colder land mass air

would probably lead to typical uk type afternoon summertime showers now that would be desparate times but i think there may be some action to the west of Dallas in the mountains thunderstorms for lightning shots

i think Paul has done or mentioned that option before,

I still think for tour 1 there will be some rapid changes as no forecast in the world is that accurite more than 4 to 5 days ahead after more than 3 or 4 days meteoroligists always quailfy there forecasts with terms like "may " "a chance" "50%" "10%" etc

[Cookie]

worried

[craig1uk]

This might be an option I guess, http://www.nwc.ou.edu/tourdetails.php, they do ask for booking to be two weeks in advance tho, but though I'd throw it out there anyway, be nice to see where the magic happens (or does'nt )

[duckeyh]

worried

I'm practically suicidal after reading the model write up On the bright side at least we'll get a good tan

[TornadoJo]

Chin up peeps.

Theres loads to do in america.

I vote we go Alien hunting in Roswell.

Failing that we've got the black hills and colorado mountains. Theres the Cherokee reserves etc and the grand canyon.

There must be theme parks or swimming pools as well.

How bout a football match?

asn't there a Twister museum or something as well?

I'm sure it'll all work out fine. We'll have fun times no matter what!

[duckeyh]

Ah America .....the land of opportunity

Am up for some kind of chasing even if it for Aliens , weird lights or ghosts......or apparently there's a railroad on a hill in Texas on which some strange force pushes cars up it....

[DubWeatherAddict]

[Paul Sherman]

Ah you guys are great, as the girls say there is plenty to do but a Storm or 2 would make it all the better, nice to know that we can all blame the weather gods together.

06z believe it or not was even worse than the 00z if that can be possible, I am going to peek at the 12z from behind the curtain and get louise to run the frames :lol: :lol:

[Dorsetbred]

Ah you guys are great, as the girls say there is plenty to do but a Storm or 2 would make it all the better, nice to know that we can all blame the weather gods together.

06z believe it or not was even worse than the 00z if that can be possible, I am going to peek at the 12z from behind the curtain and get louise to run the frames :lol: :lol:

Packing his sun cream and bermuda's is now rushing for a darkened room, the 12z is gross and disgusting now pushing back right up to the 8th

[Dorsetbred]

Ah America .....the land of opportunity

Am up for some kind of chasing even if it for Aliens , weird lights or ghosts......or apparently there's a railroad on a hill in Texas on which some strange force pushes cars up it....

Claire

There are two in Texas, to be found at:

Texas

El Paso: Thunderbird Drive facing south.[73]

San Antonio: Just east of the San Antonio Missions National Historic Park at the railway crossing at Villamain Road and Shane Roa

Both are optical illusions but still interesting to see.

[Tom Lynch]

I always live in hope and there are about 6 days to go.

[Paul]

I've added a couple of charts for the USA to our ECMWF output:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=