Atlantic Hurricane Season 2011

[onlyME]

When will the first named storm form?

Which storm will be the first hurricane?

Which storm will be the first major hurricane?

Which storm will be the first Cat5?

Which storm will be the strongest?

Which storm will be the last?

When the last storm will form?

How many landfalls will the US have?

Date when is first named storm:Late June

First hurricane:Bret

First major hurricane:Don

First Cat5:Gert

Strongest storm:Jose

Last storm:Ophelia

Date of last storm:early December

Number of US landfalls:4,1 on Eastern Seaboard

Edited April 20, 2011 by Wobbuffet

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

When will the first named storm form?

Which storm will be the first hurricane?

Which storm will be the first major hurricane?

Which storm will be the first Cat5?

Which storm will be the strongest?

Which storm will be the last?

When the last storm will form?

How many landfalls will the US have?

Date when is first named storm:2nd Week June

First hurricane: Cindy

First major hurricane: Franklin

First Cat5: Franklin

Strongest storm: Nate

Last storm:Rina

Date of last storm:2nd week November

Number of US landfalls:5,2 on Eastern Seaboard

[onlyME]

Could the mod pin this thread?

Edited April 20, 2011 by Wobbuffet

[Somerset Squall]

When will the first named storm form? Last week of May

Which storm will be the first hurricane? Bret

Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Emily

Which storm will be the first Cat5? None

Which storm will be the strongest? Katia

Which storm will be the last? Sean

When the last storm will form? Mid-November

How many landfalls will the US have? 5

[Cookie]

When will the first named storm form? 1 week of June

Which storm will be the first hurricane? Bret

Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Emily

Which storm will be the first Cat5? Emily

Which storm will be the strongest? Emily

Which storm will be the last? Tammy

When the last storm will form? first week November

How many landfalls will the US have? 6

[onlyME]

I refreshed my predictions:

Date when is first named storm: Early June

First hurricane: Cindy

First major hurricane: Franklin

First Cat5: Franklin

Strongest storm: Franklin

Last storm: Nate

Date of last storm: late December,location simillar to Zeta

Number of US landfalls: 4,2 on Eastern Seaboard

Edited May 1, 2011 by Wobbuffet

[Ben_Cambs]

I was reading through the MetOffice site earlier and found their 2011 Atlantic tropical storm season forecast:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2011-hurricane-forecast

[johnholmes]

This is the output from UK Met and NOAA

Met O forecast

Our forecast for the 2011 season is for 13 tropical storms between June and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 10 to 17, which is very close to the 1980-2010 long-term average of 12. This is in contrast to 2010 which had a total of 19 tropical storms.

And the American forecast

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

So the basic storm forecast looks similar from both centres.

I'll drop this in the other area as its probably a better place for it?

Edited May 26, 2011 by johnholmes

[Cookie]

This is the output from UK Met and NOAA

Met O forecast

Our forecast for the 2011 season is for 13 tropical storms between June and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 10 to 17, which is very close to the 1980-2010 long-term average of 12. This is in contrast to 2010 which had a total of 19 tropical storms.

And the American forecast

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

So the basic storm forecast looks similar from both centres.

I'll drop this in the other area as its probably a better place for it?

we usally chuck it in a new thread, but where you have put it is fine!

[philglossop]

When will the first named storm form? 2nd week of June

Which storm will be the first hurricane? Arlene

Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Don

Which storm will be the first Cat5? Franklin

Which storm will be the strongest? Nate

Which storm will be the last? Think we'll get to Sean

When the last storm will form? 1st week November

How many landfalls will the US have? 4 (1 Eastern seaboard)

[onlyME]

Now i think it will go to Philippe which will be in November and hit Florida,later become extratropical over SW Georgia,and become a strong blizzard raging through east US coast.

Edited May 27, 2011 by Wobbuffet

[Iceberg]

Have to admit a forecast between 10-17 leaves alot of room for error.

From me the ITCZ is just too far south atm and isn't like to be far enough north to allow storm development until mid June. I'd still be looking for an ITCZ around the 7-10N mark capable of spawning waves between 10-12N for any real chance of non GOM development.

Once we get to the above state though I think it will be a pretty active season with lots of waves and invests and a fair few storms due to generally lower shear.

When will the first named storm form? 4th week of June

Which storm will be the first hurricane? Cindy

Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Don

Which storm will be the first Cat5? Gert

Which storm will be the strongest? Jose

Which storm will be the last? Nate

When the last storm will form? 2nd week November

How many landfalls will the US have? 3

[Buzzit]

Im going for a less extreme version of 2008

When will the first named storm form? 2nd week of June

Which storm will be the first hurricane? Cindy

Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Cindy

Which storm will be the first Cat5? N/A

Which storm will be the strongest? Jose

Which storm will be the last? Ophelia

When the last storm will form? 1st week November

How many landfalls will the US have? 4

[Somerset Squall]

Only me and Buzzit going for no cat 5's then. Well, I suppose we are overdue one considering the last cat 5 in the Atlantic was Felix in 2007.

[Rob]

When will the first named storm form? Mid July

Which storm will be the first hurricane? Bret

Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Don

Which storm will be the first Cat5? Gert

Which storm will be the strongest? Gert

Which storm will be the last? Sean

When the last storm will form? Last week of November

How many landfalls will the US have? 6

[onlyME]

I have prediction for Emily.

Forms in Mediterranean sea west of Creta,then slowly intensifies to Cat2 hurricane in Otranto Strait,and once in Adriatic,it intensifies to small but powerful Cat5 hurricane fed by humid and unstable air from Balkans.Then it brushes Croatian coast with weakening from 180 mph 921 mb Cat5 to 125 mph 949 mb Cat3.Then it turns abruptly westward and totallly destroys Venice as a low-end Cat4 with 939 mb pressure.Then it recurves northeastward in a wake of acold front and dissipates on extreme southeastern Austria.It merged with the cold front and created catastrophic thunderstorms all over Hungary.

August 11-19(remnants dissipated in a cold front on August 22 over Romania and Bulgaria).

It does not get retired.

Tomorrow I will upload a tracking map.

Edited June 3, 2011 by Wobbuffet

[onlyME]

Color code:

Dark blue-remnants/predecessor low

Sky blue-TD

Green-TS

Yellow-Cat1

Orange-Cat2

Red-Cat3

Purple-Cat4

Fuchsia-Cat5

[Ladyofthestorm]

I dont know if anyone has seen this from elsewhere but it maybe relevant., from the Environment News Service.

Very active Hurricane Season Predicted

[johnholmes]

I dont know if anyone has seen this from elsewhere but it maybe relevant., from the Environment News Service.

Very active Hurricane Season Predicted

This is the prediction from UK Met, link below

http://www.metoffice...thatlantic.html

and from NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep....oks/figure1.gif

both suggesting about the same values

10-17 or 12-18

Edited July 25, 2011 by johnholmes

[jimbo36]

Looks like Hurricane Emily could be the first major hurricane of Atlantic season, all ingredients and motion for a good one :-)

[jimbo36]

Looks like Hurricane Emily could be the first major hurricane of Atlantic season, all ingredients and motion for a good one :-)

oh well maybe not now

[Coast]

The squiggly lines of storm paths are everywhere on the map — in the Atlantic Ocean and even the Gulf of Mexico.

But none, thankfully, crossed the state of Florida. During a busy hurricane season that saw 18 named tropical storms, with seven of those morphing into hurricanes, the Sunshine State was not impacted a single time. "It was an incredibly good year for us," said Michelle Palmer, deputy state meteorologist for Florida. "We like calm seasons."

The only names we didn't make it to on the 2011 list were Tammy, Vince and Whitney. And while hurricane season doesn't officially end until Wednesday, forecasters say we have likely seen the last of tropical activity for the year. Tropical Storms Bret and Emily teased the east coast of the state, and the remnants of Hurricane Rina got close to the west coast. "But no other storm really got anywhere near us," said Nicole Carlisle, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

That wasn't the case elsewhere.

Irene became the first hurricane of the season in August and made two landfalls in the United States, leaving 56 deaths in its wake amid widespread flooding, and causing damage of more than $10 billion. Slow-moving Tropical Storm Lee dumped heavy rains in September over much of Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi and eventually into New York and Pennsylvania, causing about $1 billion in damage.

Forecasters had predicted the season would see more activity than a normal one, with an average of 10 named storms and six hurricanes. They called for between 14 and 19 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes, Carlisle said, with three to five of those growing into major hurricanes. "It looks like their forecast was pretty well on the mark," Carlisle said. "It was a pretty busy season."

A one-two combo of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean and a series of low-pressure troughs over the continental United States created the atmospheric conditions that spared Florida from any tropical wrath, the forecaster said. This year was similar to the 2010 season, Palmer said, when there were a lot of storms but they nearly all stayed away from the state.

The Bermuda high pressure over the Atlantic was farther east than a typical year, Palmer said. And multiple troughs of low pressure and cold fronts sinking southward over the United States helped create a protective shield for the East Coast, she added.

http://www2.tbo.com/...orms-ar-327667/

[Coast]

A lone area of unsettled weather keep forecasters on alert as the last official day of the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season draws near

Chances were slim, only 10 percent, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Nov. 29, the eve of the season’s close, that a weak area of low pressure located about 200 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands would develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

“This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it interacts with an upper-level low. Upper level winds are not currently favorable for significant development,†a NHC forecaster said. Hurricane season in the Atlantic basis runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

So far, 19 tropical storms formed this year – the third highest total since recordkeeping began in 1851. The 2011 season tied with the years 1887, 1995 and 2010. The long-term seasonal average, 1944-2010, is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Six hurricanes and three major hurricanes formed in 2011. The 2011 season made history being the first year ever that none of the first eight tropical storms reached hurricane status.

One of the three major hurricanes, Irene was the only one to hit the U.S. coast. It is the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2008. Fortunately, it was downgraded to a Category 2 prior to making landfall. Officials said it was the “most significant†to strike the northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991. “Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,†said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.â€

It’s been six years since a major hurricane, a Category 3 or above, has hit the U.S. coast. The last major hurricane to hit the coast was Wilma. That hurricane made landfall very near Cape Romano, which is about 20 miles west of Everglades City, at 6:30 a.m. Oct. 24, 2005. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 125 mph - a strong Category 3 Hurricane. Irene was the most destructive and deadly of all 2011 storms. Fifty-five deaths in the United States and Caribbean were attributed to Irene, as was most of the season’s $10 billion in damages. Irene was the first hurricane to make landfall on the coast of New Jersey in 108 years.

Other significant 2011 storms include Hurricane Katia, which caused severe weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland and power blackouts as far east as Saint Petersburg in Russia. Tropical Storm Lee caused major flooding in Pennsylvania, New York and into the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario. The strongest storm of the season was Ophelia, which reached category four strength in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda.

Season summary

Hurricane season for the Atlantic basin begins June 1. On average one tropical storm forms every other year during that first month. This year, 2011, was one of those years. Tropical Storm Arlene formed June 29 and made landfall along the coast of Mexico June 30. Three named storms formed in July – well above the long-term average of one.

Tropical Storm Bret formed July 17 off the eastern coast of Florida. The storm never came close to land, tracking north and east before disintegrating over the Atlantic Ocean July 22.

Tropical Storm Cindy from July 20 well offshore in the eastern Atlantic and was never a threat to land. It became a post-tropical storm on July 23. Tropical Storm

Don formed July 27 about 190 miles north of Cozumel Mexico. It fell apart as it came ashore the coast of Texas near Baffin Bay July 29. August was the busiest month with a tropical depression and seven named storms, including Irene, which became the season’s first hurricane and first major hurricane.

Emily formed Aug. 1 about 50 miles west-southwest of Dominica. The storm degenerated into a tropical low Aug. 4.

Tropical Storm Franklin formed about 460 miles north-northeast of Bermuda early in the morning of Aug. 13. By end of day, the NHC announced it had lost its tropical characteristics. It was never a threat to land, remaining over the northern Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Gert formed Aug. 14 about 275 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Two days later, Gert had degenerated into a post-tropical low. Tropical Storm Harvey formed Friday, Aug. 19, about 285 miles east-southeast of Belize City and made landfall near Dangriga Town, Belize on Saturday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph.

Hurricane Irene formed Aug. 20 east of the Leeward Islands about 190 miles east of Dominica. Irene was the ninth named storm of the season and the first hurricane and major hurricane. It is the first to hit the United States since 2008. Irene made landfall twice along the U.S. East Coast - first in North Carolina on Aug. 27 and again the next day in New Jersey. Irene is blamed for as many as 55 deaths and billions of dollars in damage.

Tropical Storm Jose formed Aug. 28 in the eastern Atlantic while Irene was making its way along the Atlantic Seaboard. Jose skirted to the west of Bermuda before heading off into the open waters.

Katia formed Aug. 29 about 535 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The NHC tracked its path until Sept. 10 when it went post-tropical about 295 miles east-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland. Katia was the second hurricane and second major hurricane of the season. It followed a similar path to Irene, only remaining offshore, traveling through the Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Lee formed Sept. 2 south of Louisiana and made landfall over south-central Louisiana Sept. 4. Lee created problems for residents of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle over the Labor Day weekend before moving on to bring rain and winds to residents still cleaning up from Hurricane Irene. The red flags waved on Pinellas County beaches due to rip current dangers as Lee kicked up large waves in the Gulf of Mexico. Lee was the first tropical storm to made landfall in Louisiana since Hurricane Gustav in 2008.

Maria began as Tropical Depression 14 the afternoon of Sept. 6 and became a tropical storm on Sept. 7. It was located about 1,220 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Maria followed a similar path to Hurricane Katia, moving offshore the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. It became a hurricane on Sept. 15 and was a post-tropical cyclone by Sept. 16.

Nate, the 14th named storm, formed Sept. 7 in the Bay Campeche. Nate made landfall Sept. 11 along the coast of Mexico just north of Barra de Nautla.

Ophelia formed Sept. 20 in the central tropical Atlantic and degenerated into a remnant low on Sept 25, before becoming the fourth hurricane of the season and the third major hurricane.

Philippe – the season’s 16th named storm, formed Sept. 24, following in Ophelia’s wake. The storm became a hurricane Oct. 8 before becoming post-tropical Oct. 9.

Rina formed Oct. 23 and became a hurricane – the sixth and final of 2011 - Oct. 24. Rina passed near the Yucatan Peninsula before being downgraded to a depression Oct. 28.

Sean formed Nov. 8 and was the final and 19th tropical system and the eighteenth named storm of the 2011 season. It passed near Bermuda Nov. 11 and became extra-tropical the next day.

“Although the 2011 hurricane season has ended, our need to prepare for disasters hasn't,†said Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Being prepared for all kinds of hazards, from hurricanes to blizzards to tornadoes, is a year-round activity. We encourage all members of the team, especially the public, to continue to prepare for emergencies by staying informed of forecasted weather events, making an emergency plan, and building your emergency preparedness kit. Visit Ready.gov to learn more.â€

NOAA will issue its initial outlook for the 2012 hurricane season in May just prior to the official start of the season on June 1.

http://www.tbnweekly...2911_fpg-02.txt

[Coast]

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends today (Nov. 30), has kept storm-chasing aircraft busy this year. The planes spend hours at a time flying through tropical storms and hurricanes to capture crucial data for forecasters on the ground. Seven hurricanes and 12 tropical storms swirled across the Atlantic region this year, making 2011 one of the most active seasons on record. For the majority of those 19 storms, aircraft took to the skies to investigate.

The main arm of the United States' weather-scouting fleet is the Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss. — better known as the Hurricane Hunters. "We had a lot of business this year, but it was a good year because not much of that [severe weather] impacted Americans in a negative way," said Lt. Col. Sean Pierce, pilot and director of operations for the 53rd.

Busy year

The Hurricane Hunters' workhorse is the massive WC-130J aircraft, a prop plane equipped with a bevy of weather-sensing instruments. There are only 10 of these aircraft on Earth, all owned by the 53rd. This year, one of the planes, all of which are close to 10 years old, was out for maintenance, so the squad was down to nine aircraft in what proved to be an active hurricane season.

On a typical flight, which lasts more than 10 hours, the WC-130Js fly with a crew of five — two pilots, a navigator, a weather tech who deploys various instruments, and a meteorologist, who acts as flight director.

At least twice this year, aircraft were needed in up to three storms at once, "which is the most challenging environment for us operationally," Pierce told Our Amazing Planet. Hurricane Irene required some of the most flight time this season, and sent hurricane hunters farther north than usual.

During the final flight into the giant storm, a crew sent a dropsonde — a small, largely biodegradable weather sensor that travels aboard a tiny parachute — into the Hudson Bay, right near the Statue of Liberty, just as Hurricane Irene made landfall, Pierce said. Irene was the first hurricane to hit the United States in three years and caused more than $1 billion in damage.

Invaluable data

53rd Squadron hurricane hunters flew 868 hours on 88 missions this year, said John Pavone, chief of air reconnaissance coordination, all hurricanes, at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami.

The center of circulation of Tropical Storm Lee, as seen from a WC-130J aircraft.

"That's a little more than in an average year because this was a little more than an average year," Pavone said, adding that 2011 is tied with three other years — 1887, 1995 and 2010 — for third most active Atlantic hurricane season since record-keeping began in 1851.

The weather-sensing planes, at the behest of the NHC, take to the skies whenever tropical weather systems appear to threaten people or property. Hurricane-hunting crews fulfilled 127 of the 129 requests the NHC sent out this year for the Atlantic region, Pavone said, "which is a pretty high success rate, which is what we've come to expect from them over the years." "Their data are critical to us," said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and spokesman for the NHC. Feltgen said that over the ocean, where tropical weather systems originate, there's no infrastructure in place to monitor and record data for forecasters trying to predict what a storm will do.

"They are basically performing an MRI of the storm, and they give us an exact location; they're able to determine the structure of the storm and the strength of the storm," Feltgen told OurAmazingPlanet. "All that data is critical for going into the computer forecast models."

http://www.ouramazin...unters-air.html

Hurricane Hunters website here:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/

[Coast]

Officials gather in Norman to discuss 2011 weather disasters

Meteorologists and officials from across the country gathered Tuesday at the National Weather Center in Norman for the first Weather-Ready Nation workshop, discussing weather events and natural disasters in 2011.

The amount of natural disasters and extreme weather events in 2011 has been quite trying for Oklahoma and the rest of the U.S. This year, there have been 12 separate national weather events that caused $52 billion in economic losses, according to the National Weather Service. Data also shows that 552 people have been killed in tornadoes so far this year. “It was certainly a historic tornado year,†said Russell Schneider, director of NOAA National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.

In order to prepare for future disasters, officials from across the country are gathering in Norman this week at the National Weather Center for the first Weather-Ready Nation workshop. During the sessions, participants will look at 2011 disasters and discuss ideas on how to improve the public's awareness and preparedness. The conference continues through Thursday.

“We're trying to begin a national conversation on creating a more weather-ready nation,†Schneider said. “By that, we mean not just improving our tornado warnings, watches or forecast, but translating that information into more effective community action to save people's lives and to help us recover more quickly from disasters that may be in our future.†In Oklahoma alone this year, residents have dealt with excessive heat, deadly tornadoes and a 5.6-magnitude earthquake — the largest quake ever recorded in the state. Gov. Mary Fallin attended the workshop Tuesday morning to discuss another Oklahoma weather incident she had to deal with before her inauguration — a winter storm. She said she underwent training for severe weather situations and was able to work with officials to help residents who were stranded on highways.

A few months after that, Fallin was faced with finding assistance for residents after the May 24 tornadoes swept through the state, killing 11 people. The state then faced a severe drought and an excessive heat wave that extended to Minnesota and Wisconsin. “Now I'm just waiting on the locusts. Hopefully, they don't come or we'll have to find a new place to live,†Fallin said. Other weather events, such as flooding, tornadoes and Hurricane Irene have also affected other parts of the country. Schneider said the U.S., overall, saw major property loss throughout the year because of the weather events.

On average, tornadoes kill 80 people a year, Schneider said. This year the numbers increased significantly, and the nation had the most tornado fatalities since 1936, he said. The only year to exceed the 2011 and 1936 fatality total was in 1925, when the tri-state tornado swept through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, killing 695 people in its path. Schneider said officials plan to have follow-up meetings to discuss similar topics from the workshop and are working on research projects that might allow meteorologists to predict tornado activity further in advance. “There's no way to predict what the coming year will bring,†Schneider said. “We wouldn't predict a similar year this year, but we can't rule that out at this point.

http://newsok.com/of...4#ixzz1gVC1MPhh