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Model Watch For Tour 2


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Well T336 Is now the start of Tour 2 so if anyone wants to keep an eye on the Models for Tour 2's start date then please feel free, you might not want to of course as the other thread has had more ups and downs than the Big One at Blackpool! :lol: :lol:

I am sure Nick and Nathan will post some charts over the next few days.

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

Been chopping and changing between runs already Pat lol :lol: the Jet was nowhere to be seen........

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Been chopping and changing between runs already Pat lol :lol: the Jet was nowhere to be seen........

mate trust me...u aint seen anything yet...its iether T2 OR T3..its going to be hell..honest

to many scary dreams..got a huge hunch on this.

my dreams come true.though i dont beleive the bikini girls dreams

if i get it wrong i wont go next year :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Well T336 Is now the start of Tour 2 so if anyone wants to keep an eye on the Models for Tour 2's start date then please feel free, you might not want to of course as the other thread has had more ups and downs than the Big One at Blackpool! :lol: :lol:

I am sure Nick and Nathan will post some charts over the next few days.

Paul S

and trust me the big on at Blackpool has some major ups and downs and I will be going on that ride a few days before I head out to the USA

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

is that good?

:bomb: :bomb: :bomb::help: :help: :help:

the day of my funeral :lol:

jet is not that good though for shear

electric storms anyone?

looks like a huge reload :drinks:

its a long way off but I still like the colours

post-3696-0-00789600-1304099400_thumb.pn

post-3696-0-79574300-1304099545_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales
  • Location: Aberystwyth, West Wales

lol Pat! Is there any particular GFS run you guys stick to? chopping and changing every run atm, but preferring the 12z for obvious reasons :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

lol Pat! Is there any particular GFS run you guys stick to? chopping and changing every run atm, but preferring the 12z for obvious reasons :lol:

Arron...my moto is....colours and colours....I dont care if there right left Orange black purple Orange....so long as it looks like Armagedeon with coluors.. :lol:

No LOSS of life though...

when its a sea of endless light blue is when I will cry :lol:

gives me hope...LOLOL

now open a bud and put some trance music on with words about colours..LOL :lol:

Arron I hope my dreams dont come true.. :rofl:

16 bikini ladies go chasing with us..LOL

AND WE ALL escape from a F5..lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

is that good?

the jets too far north but looks like there may be some normal storm activity

looking forward looks to be a good reload coming but that far out including the charts i posted

not worth taking seriously yet

:drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

the jets too far north but looks like there may be some normal storm activity

looking forward looks to be a good reload coming but that far out including the charts i posted

not worth taking seriously yet

:drinks:

Pete have u seen all the charts on our tour... :bomb:

long way off..but looking consistent

If anything its expanding

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Pete have u seen all the charts on our tour... :bomb:

long way off..but looking consistent

If anything its expanding

There is an insane amount of cape, but with the jet stream all wrong there looks to be no trigger. The gun is loaded but locked away in the cupboard!

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

cape ok will probably build as model time frame gets closer

need the jet to get a good kink in it to make a good trigger

post-9919-0-78277900-1304342523_thumb.gi

gfs and ecwmf showing from what i can tell differances so not taking any notice of models yet

need a much closer time frame to be verifiable

postings on stormtrack bye others that hopefully know more than my casual amature knowledge seem to be saying will be ok

so everything crossed lets havesome good luck

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

cape ok will probably build as model time frame gets closer

need the jet to get a good kink in it to make a good trigger

post-9919-0-78277900-1304342523_thumb.gi

gfs and ecwmf showing from what i can tell differances so not taking any notice of models yet

need a much closer time frame to be verifiable

postings on stormtrack bye others that hopefully know more than my casual amature knowledge seem to be saying will be ok

so everything crossed lets havesome good luck

I have been keeping a close eye on this, Pete. The high cape values for the start of tour 2 have been very consistent, however as you say the jet stream alignment has been less than favourable. But I have noticed that this is changing and edging into something more favourable as each run passes. Originally, the GFS was predicting a very northern based jet with a slight NW-SE tilt, which would not be favourable at all, now we are seeing signs that the jet stream could fragment as it crosses the USA with the more southerly segment crossing the plains at a more favourable tilt. We are not quite there yet, but at T+180 for the 10th, there is still time for a big change around either way. When one has paid out money in the hope of seeing storms in one particular week, I now realise that this type of model watching is far more nail biting than the usual winter snow watch!!

Keeping my fingers crossed anyway!

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I have been keeping a close eye on this, Pete. The high cape values for the start of tour 2 have been very consistent, however as you say the jet stream alignment has been less than favourable. But I have noticed that this is changing and edging into something more favourable as each run passes. Originally, the GFS was predicting a very northern based jet with a slight NW-SE tilt, which would not be favourable at all, now we are seeing signs that the jet stream could fragment as it crosses the USA with the more southerly segment crossing the plains at a more favourable tilt. We are not quite there yet, but at T+180 for the 10th, there is still time for a big change around either way. When one has paid out money in the hope of seeing storms in one particular week, I now realise that this type of model watching is far more nail biting than the usual winter snow watch!!

Keeping my fingers crossed anyway!

And with USA chasing you can get decent storms of fairly weak looking set ups.

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

copied from a post on stormtrack : Tuesday or Wednesday (May 10th/11th) starting to looking interesting per 02.12Z ECMWF. A large bowling ball 500 hPa low with very good meridional flow is indicated with the EC showing 60+ deg F dewpoints advecting northward across west-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. I'm not buying the 02.12Z GFS solution, however, the model has trended to less of a zonal upper pattern to more of an amplified solution. Shear looks good as well. Way to early to obsess about mesoscale details but NWP suggests more of an active convective pattern across the high plains...finally! Think its too early to start a FCST thread and still keeping the trend discussion in this longer range thread. full link http://www.stormtrac...9569#post309569

post-9919-0-16162500-1304371632_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

caution when looking at this novice reading the storm chasers handbook as i go !

jumping forward a bit GFS looks good for the 18th may potential Oklahoma Panhandle (almost) on the 00z waitng to see the 12z

previous days back to the 11th /12th there looks to be potential perhaps Texas Hill country or a bit further east wind shear not great but there is some

there looks to be 2 jets setting up a northern and southern weaker one this looks to be evident when looking at the wind plots as you get higher, correct me if wrong as i am a novice at this.

will compare to ECWMF later/ tonight

for the 18th

post-9919-0-06986700-1304420238_thumb.pn post-9919-0-61155200-1304420267_thumb.pn post-9919-0-32853100-1304420469_thumb.pn

back to the 11th May 12th similar but slightly further NE

post-9919-0-92973600-1304421637_thumb.pn post-9919-0-51192400-1304421728_thumb.pn post-9919-0-42016900-1304421773_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Welcome to tour 2 here - let the storm come to Dallas for arrival day.

Is this enough cape?????

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

It is looking pretty good for the start of tour 2:

ECMWF

Shallow low pressure over the plains:

usaecm500.168.png

GFS

Similar setup, low pressure a bit further north

usajsslp.png

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