Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[conor123]

Just had an extra brief (a minute or so tops to be honest) heavy downpour here out of nowhere, raining lightly now, first rain since..4th April.

Edited May 5, 2011 by conor123

[Alex95]

Large warm rain drops here in Newcastle now. Hopefully a taster for the weekend. Saturday could actually see the storms hold together quite well as they sweep through the UK from France. There hasn't been an imported storm here since the last night of July 2008!

[Costa Del Fal]

Like the NMM 12z for tomorrow evening alot. Look at all that Mid Level Cape move in to Southern and Central Zones. GFS doesnt quite like the idea so much though but even the GFS has the potential with good Shear values etc.

The potential however for some decent high based Lightning shows hopefully for what must be the first time in ages hopefully.

Edited May 5, 2011 by Blizzards

[Stuart]

and hope there can get up here

[sn0wman]

Same Stuart!

[Static Prevails]

The excitement is drawing nearer. I'm hopeful for tomorrow, and if anything's coming my way on the radar at some point tomorrow it'll be hard to keep myself calm. Sure, we had a short 15 minute storm in early April that saw two or three flashes, but I want the real deal. Things look good for my area, so you better not disappoint weather, or I will be most displeased. :ph34r:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Don't really know what to expect for my area after been let down for all the other days..

[tomp456]

so whats the likely hood of any imports from the ole' channel in the next few days?

[Adi F]

I'm not too hopeful for my area now. My storm risk has been downgraded again. I guess it's going to be a wait and see game ! apart from following GFS there are many other charts that I may check later. There's always a chance of an upgrade by tomorrow though.

Why don't you go out for the evening, your welcome to come and sit up on the Southdowns with me. Anyone else that wants to watch is welcome too. Time and place to be arranged by mother nature.

[tomp456]

'will it thunder' can **** off. only 35% chance of something in the next few days.

GAHHHHHHHHHHHH...

:(

:(

[slb97]

'will it thunder' can **** off. only 35% chance of something in the next few days.

GAHHHHHHHHHHHH...

:(

:(

I think we'll get some rain - not sure about thunder as there appears to be mixed messages on the weather forecasts and met office website doesn't mention thunder for London and south east at all but you never know! Really hope so though!

[tomp456]

I think we'll get some rain - not sure about thunder as there appears to be mixed messages on the weather forecasts and met office website doesn't mention thunder for London and south east at all but you never know! Really hope so though!

hmm yeah hope is all we can do really

I'm 90% sure of rain. The Met Office sucks at predicting thunderstorms just so you know Ignore the met office we have experts on the forums which may give us hope

[matt_in_dudley]

Is it me or did thunderstorms used to last longer than they do now? Does anyone know why? Some storms in the 90's used to last hours...these days you are lucky if they last half an hour!

[tomp456]

Is it me or did thunderstorms used to last longer than they do now? Does anyone know why? Some storms in the 90's used to last hours...these days you are lucky if they last half an hour!

a few years ago, 08/9 i think it was. one had a storm that lasted for a good 1-2 hours. But that was a few years ago

The average storm lasts just 15 minutes I've read somewhere on the internet. Why? Because mother nature is a b****

[Costa Del Fal]

Is it me or did thunderstorms used to last longer than they do now? Does anyone know why? Some storms in the 90's used to last hours...these days you are lucky if they last half an hour!

We had thunder for some 2 hours a couple of weeks ago! The 28th July 2008 consisted of about 2 large storms very close with each other giving combined thundery activity for some 6 hours i think it was!

Tomorrow night could deliver a longer lasting storm. Right now im quietly confident about tomorrow...for now anyway. :lol:

[Kain]

Not holding out much hope for tomorrow and the weekend really. Ive seen meny of these hypes turn into non events over the years to learn not to look forward to anything stormwise lol

[knocker]

At the moment I find it difficult to get a grip on the areas the plume is going to effect. The METO seem more bullish about than the GFS thst has convective precip. hitting the SW tomorrow evening but with little CAPE or Li.

[Adi F]

The Met Office sucks at predicting thunderstorms just so you know

They are good at predicting Spanish Plumes though...

Edited May 5, 2011 by Adi F

[Weather Wizard]

Does any one know how London is supposed to do tommorow

Thanks

[Jane Louise]

Why don't you go out for the evening, your welcome to come and sit up on the Southdowns with me. Anyone else that wants to watch is welcome too. Time and place to be arranged by mother nature.

Thanks for the offer Adi, If something happens I have plans to go up to our local hill.Should be careful though being that high up. :lol:

My thoughts regarding the storms from what I've seen so far tonight are...... the Met Office looks good. Mr Michael Fish has also mentioned it on his video forecast on Netweather he even mentioned the word SPANISH PLUME lol :lol: even the BBC are going for a Spanish plume too.:o

I think it's going to be an exciting few days and I do hope we all get our storms. Looking forward to a night time storm if one heads my way lol.

[tomp456]

Not holding out much hope for tomorrow and the weekend really. Ive seen meny of these hypes turn into non events over the years to learn not to look forward to anything stormwise lol

ahh loving the negativity.

[Phelpsy]

Me to Jane, fingers crossed for our neck of the woods. Im getting excited already lol!

[Jane Louise]

We had thunder for some 2 hours a couple of weeks ago! The 28th July 2008 consisted of about 2 large storms very close with each other giving combined thundery activity for some 6 hours i think it was!

Tomorrow night could deliver a longer lasting storm. Right now im quietly confident about tomorrow...for now anyway. :lol:

Always good to be positive. I've tried the Reverse psychology trick before and nothing happened. :lol:

If you're confident then I'm confident.

[camiscool]

Back to the models and potential ...enough of this negativity

[Nick F]

Ireland looks like a good spot for a strong t-storm with a risk of a tornado tomorrow afternoon, a strong southerly jet aloft with winds backing towards the surface should provide some strong vertical shear and some decent CAPE provide the extra ingredients needed for rotating updrafts in any storms that develop here:

Then tomorrow night, it looks like a shortwave trough drifting north from NW France will interact with plume of warm moist air advecting north too, which will bring some heavy thundery rain and perhaps an MCS across southern and central areas of England overnight - as upper winds strengthen from the south, some uncertainties on exactly where may see thunder.

Then Saturday, Much of the UK away from the far west will still be in a warm humid southerly flow east of cold front, so CAPE should build nicely with insolation, GFS indicated highest CAPE values across northern England, perhaps away from the detritus left over from overnight thundery rain/storms further south, and a prefontal trough could trigger home-grown storms from Midlands north, which may benefit from strong deep-layer shear and low-level shear - so perhaps risk of a supercell and thus a tornado risk too, but areas with a severe risk may change by Saturday. Lightning wizard shows a decent tornado parameter for northern England on Satuday early evening anyway:

The cold front in the west then looks to sweep east overnight into Sunday morning, which itself may bring some thundery activity which will be accompanied by strong vertical shear.

So an interesting 48 hours or so to come! With further storms possible in the west into early next week in the returning Polar maritime air post cold front.