Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Carl46Wrexham]

Just light rain here in Telford at the mo, still havent had an overhead storm since 28th July 2008 or was it 19th July 2007?

It would have been July 2008 because we got a good hit that night as well. If someone had told me then that we'd be waiting for another one nearly 3 years later I'd never have believed it.

[DAVID SNOW]

So far so good at the moment- latest obs. showing temps. responding to thinning/breaking of the cloud to the south and east. Should it continue to break up across the Mids and N England this afternoon, the stage is pretty much set for strong thunderstorms.

Sunny here now(South West Essex)Temp up to 19C, DP at 15 degrees.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yep its sunny down here in surrey, its very very humid and sticky feel to the air, at one point the rain that fell this morning was steaming of the ground looked cool

[Stormyking]

Feels so so muggy still and there is so much AcCas, Mid level Cumulus and there is a shower to the east of me I can see it!

NAE looks nice for this evening and tonight, as does the GFS

[NO LONGER POSTING]

19 c

83% humidity

dew point 15 c

Feels so so muggy still and there is so much AcCas, Mid level Cumulus and there is a shower to the east of me I can see it!

NAE looks nice for this evening and tonight, as does the GFS

hope this moves up to hit me

[Marcus_surfer]

Last night was not too great, we saw some lightning and a few rumbles but that was about it...we also had hardly any rain.

[sendandreturn]

Just took up Pauls offer on the net weather radar. Pretty nice discount for those who are unsure!

whats the offer

[Costa Del Fal]

Brightening up here now and with lots of good skies in the South, it should be game on hopefully for this afternoon.

Tonight could see alot of rain for some people. NAE says here but NMM and GFS have pushed things East a little overnight.

[The PIT]

Looking like a day for norms I'm afraid. Lack of day time warming here killing the issue stone dead at the moment. Pity as I was hoping for a bit of interest. Hosepipe twitching right now.

[Phelpsy]

14°C here at the moment and sayss Humidity 100%. Breezy and sun trying to make an appearance now and then. Lower cloud moving in from SE direction but moving quite quickly. Hoping it al clears ready for later.

[Snow free zone]

Once this band of rain moves through it's game on for us in the NW I reckon. We need to get this current rain out of the way ASAP so the sun can get to work.

[Kain]

whats the offer

Discounts on the radar prices. £20 for a year sub of the 5 min radar. Ive gone for NW lite though. Hopefully a reliable lightning detector service

[sparky1972]

Odd really, I'm not that far from you as the crow flies, and it's sunny here, albeit with some cloud floating around.

would love a bit of sunshine to pick temps up here, rain got heavy for around 5 mins, now just light rain but sun trying to make an apperance. i have read that tonight might bring a better chance of storms, fingers crossed.

[TEITS]

Brightening up here now and with lots of good skies in the South, it should be game on hopefully for this afternoon.

Tonight could see alot of rain for some people. NAE says here but NMM and GFS have pushed things East a little overnight.

Now you have said the NMM goes with the GFS makes me sway towards these models than the NAE.

So those who live around Hampshire and those directly N could be in for a treat later tonight. Looking very good for those in the E Midlands also. Have to say im not convinced we shall see many storms breaking out this afternoon though.

[Gord]

Well that was a decent amount of rain this morning...very much needed.

Now we wait and see what happens next. Cloud is breaking now and the southern sky is looking brighter. Rain clearing in our country is a beautiful thing to watch...watching the brighter skies approach as a few low clouds skoot along trying to keep up with the main rain band. Better in mountainous areas though!

Plenty of time this afternoon and this evening for things to develop.

As for tonight....we'll just have to wait and see.

[Snowangel-MK]

Sadly no T-storm here last night… just a piddly 1mm of rain overnight, it’s started to brighten up in the last hour or so and the sun is trying really hard to break through J

Current Data for Milton Keynes at 11:45 AM BST on May 07, 2011

Temperature 19.6 °C

Dew Point 16.9 °C

Humidity 81%

[Andy Pepler]

iv just been out to check my rain meter and we had 13.6mm in the last 24 hours

temp 21.4

dew point 15.0

pressure 1010

humidity 67%

if this warming keeps up i may get to see more sparks tonight..

[Arnie Pie]

Question; The cloud base over Birmingham seem to be moving in the direction of the 850 Hpa wind vectors as opposed to the 300 Hpa wind vectors

I`m thinking that there is a simple answer out there

[Neilsouth]

I have a good feeling about tonight in kent!

I have a bad had and not just that we've had dark mackeral skies which is a sign that it's rather unstable and just needs that gun to fire , will probably be very much later on

I'll be in sussex tonight

[Paul]

Question; The cloud base over Birmingham seem to be moving in the direction of the 850 Hpa wind vectors as opposed to the 300 Hpa wind vectors

I`m thinking that there is a simple answer out there

The cloud base will be at a lower level than 300hpa - that'll be where the tops (of the higher ones) are. That's also the directional shear coming in to play where the wind changes direction with height - good for storm development..

[Costa Del Fal]

Now you have said the NMM goes with the GFS makes me sway towards these models than the NAE.

So those who live around Hampshire and those directly N could be in for a treat later tonight. Looking very good for those in the E Midlands also. Have to say im not convinced we shall see many storms breaking out this afternoon though.

However the latest NMM 06z has just come out and is rather different again. It breaks out some heavier storms over the SW and West Midlands this evening and then the main rain/storms later seem to move up through West/Central Midlands and another smaller area moving into the SE and E Midlands areas.

[Nick L]

Fingers crossed for this evening! Was woken up at 5am by a crash of thunder and absolute torrential rain, much needed.

[A.J]

Brightening up here now and with lots of good skies in the South, it should be game on hopefully for this afternoon.

Tonight could see alot of rain for some people. NAE says here but NMM and GFS have pushed things East a little overnight.

Good to know things are starting to brighten up a few miles to the south...The rain's tapering off here now, with quite a southerly breeze, feeling rather cool, but muggy at the same time...NMM has moved things further east tonight, but at this close range, the models go out of the window IMO (even hi-res models) and nowcasting and radar watching takes over.....It's a bugger trying to predict snow during the winter even with the hi-res models, as there were times during the snowy spell in december that both NMM & NAE were not accurate to within 100 miles even at T-6, let alone trying to forecast storms with all their extra dynamics at this short timescale!

[Paul]

whats the offer

Discounts on the radar prices. £20 for a year sub of the 5 min radar. Ive gone for NW lite though. Hopefully a reliable lightning detector service

The offer code to use is UKSTORM

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/login.pl

[Costa Del Fal]

Good to know things are starting to brighten up a few miles to the south...The rain's tapering off here now, with quite a southerly breeze, feeling rather cool, but muggy at the same time...NMM has moved things further east tonight, but at this close range, the models go out of the window IMO (even hi-res models) and nowcasting and radar watching takes over.....It's a bugger trying to predict snow during the winter even with the hi-res models, as there were times during the snowy spell in december that both NMM & NAE were not accurate to within 100 miles even at T-6, let alone trying to forecast storms with all their extra dynamics at this short timescale!

Very true, these storm systems can be very unpredictable. Central Midlands certainly taking the brunt after CS England i think though but with many either side getting a good share of the cake.