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Chase 2011 - Day 12 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Wednesday looks insane on the current Models with a 45% hatched for Severe, looking like a dryline play further south and Triple Point further North. At this time due to the early start from DFW Will be playing the Dryline in Central Oklahoma through C Kansas

    post-24-0-32791100-1305008501_thumb.gif

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Can't wait

    Ps where are you now

    Can't wait

    Ps where are you now?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Hi Ed

    Just South of Oklahoma City, so heading down the Turnpike towards Lawton this morning and will be refining the target when I locate the Dryline later, will be returning to the Best Western Hotel this evening in Dallas Fort Worth :good:

    Have sent Toms mobile number to Aaron :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    Good old Woodward has always been kind to us :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury
  • Location: Aylesbury

    Some ridiculous dew points here already. Severe thunderstorm watch for us folks still in Irving. Could be a bumpy take off! Good luck tour 2, I have a good feeling about today.

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    Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

    not going Woodward now heading west on the I40 to Weatherford where we will grab something to eat after our first core punch of the chase only a small one to start with though

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire

    hows it looking we got CG's T1 positioned for target location in DFW top floor of car rentals

    in the south west

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    Posted
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)
  • Location: Greenhithe, N/W Kent (home) City Of London (work)

    Should get interesting,

    000

    FLUS44 KFWD 110835

    HWOFWD

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

    335 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

    TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121000-

    MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-

    HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-

    ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-

    JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-

    FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-

    LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-

    335 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY

    AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND

    DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED

    TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

    THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST

    CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND

    DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORM

    CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH

    THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...

    ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Hi Folks...Looks as though there is a potent storm heading towards Dallas-Fort-Worth ,BEST OF LUCK...! :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire

    flights are at 4 6 and 9. have decided on a target but will have reposition to check in in terminal d

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Look as though a "derechho" is going through the metroplex,,...!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire

    lol thats the plan ....btw core punch underway ...awesome

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Interesting MD for Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado Panhandles - SPC talking of possible 'Cold Core Tornadogenesis' - not often you hear that!:

    post-1052-0-84855000-1305144661_thumb.gi

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0151 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

    AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS...FAR NWRN OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 111851Z - 112015Z

    THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO

    DEVELOP BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z.

    SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NWRN KS INTO

    SERN CO EXTENDING TO A SFC LOW 45 S LHX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH

    FROM THE LOW INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE

    INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT 20 E LHX EXTENDING SEWD

    TO 45 ESE GUY AND FARTHER SSE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AIR

    MASS BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN THE

    WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS

    ERODING IN MANY AREAS YIELDING FULL INSOLATION. THIS HAS ALLOWED

    TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S IN THE WARM

    SECTOR...AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S E/NE OF THE DRYLINE. WITHIN

    THIS AREA...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE

    RATES /DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER

    THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES/ HAS ALLOWED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO

    INCREASE TO AOA 500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING

    THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SWRN KS AND SERN CO AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX

    SWINGING THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH

    IMPACTS THE AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 50 KT WILL

    YIELD A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG

    WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE

    THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY BACKED INVOF THE WARM FRONT

    AND TRIPLE POINT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD ALSO EVOLVE BETWEEN

    THE TRIPLE POINT AND SFC LOW...WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG

    LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND BUOYANCY WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR

    COLD CORE TORNADOGENESIS.

    ..COHEN.. 05/11/2011

    Nice squall line moving through Nern/Central Texas too atm, including DFW area, MD for bow echo with damagine winds out also:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0738.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy...
  • Location: Stanstead Abbotts, Hertfordshire

    thx Ian the team are taking a rest in Bennigans after the succesful core punch . briefing and pictures to be posted tomorrow

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    heading north of woodward now hunting down some tops 45 miles to our north glad to hear the chase is going well in DFW

    Ian.

    The two of us are happily sat in the airport lounge in DFW, with the camera aimed across the runway taking lightning shots and drinking Chardonnay.

    Flight is delayed :aggressive:

    DUE TO BAD weather, so why did you guys leave DFW area, it's been great and another cell is set to hit us soon, window seat in the lounge camera armed and ready, but will I be sober by the time I board the flight?

    Next area of storms is just to the south of us right now

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    Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

    we are just south of Greensburg heading north there is a cell to our west trying to fire going to take a closer lok

    nice one quentin yeah you are being treated to a lat show pity it is delaying your flight we are near greensburg at the mo fingers crossed

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London

    The BBC weather forecast at 10.30 tonight was ramping up the tornado risk later in the week.

    Good luck guys. Looks like it could be special. :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yep, can see the cell just SW/W of Dodge City, sat shows nice line of cu/cb firing along DL west of Greensburg:

    post-1052-0-48448200-1305153113_thumb.gi

    Best place to be today, away from the squall line further E and SE moving through Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, certaintly for a discrete supercell with chance of a tornado.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Anyone got a sat link of these storms building across the states?, looped...

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Yep, can see the cell just SW/W of Dodge City, sat shows nice line of cu/cb firing along DL west of Greensburg:

    post-1052-0-48448200-1305153113_thumb.gi

    Best place to be today, away from the squall line further E and SE moving through Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, certaintly for a disrete supercell with chance of a tornado.

    Squall line is doing us fine, some great lightning and torrential rain, something we have searched 10days for :whistling:

    Next cell has gone to our SE, and the rain has eased.

    Watching the cell over Dodge, I'm seeing some characteristic wrap on the radar, fingers crossed for tour 2, hope you get more than we did :cray:

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