Chase 2011 - Day 12 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Wednesday looks insane on the current Models with a 45% hatched for Severe, looking like a dryline play further south and Triple Point further North. At this time due to the early start from DFW Will be playing the Dryline in Central Oklahoma through C Kansas

Paul S

[chionomaniac]

Can't wait

Ps where are you now

Can't wait

Ps where are you now?

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Ed

Just South of Oklahoma City, so heading down the Turnpike towards Lawton this morning and will be refining the target when I locate the Dryline later, will be returning to the Best Western Hotel this evening in Dallas Fort Worth

Have sent Toms mobile number to Aaron

[ian cameron]

heading up to OK city at the mo then were going north west to woodward

[stevestorms]

Good old Woodward has always been kind to us :-)

[icbinb]

Some ridiculous dew points here already. Severe thunderstorm watch for us folks still in Irving. Could be a bumpy take off! Good luck tour 2, I have a good feeling about today.

[ian cameron]

not going Woodward now heading west on the I40 to Weatherford where we will grab something to eat after our first core punch of the chase only a small one to start with though

[duckeyh]

hows it looking we got CG's T1 positioned for target location in DFW top floor of car rentals

in the south west

[dallas]

Should get interesting,

000

FLUS44 KFWD 110835

HWOFWD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

335 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121000-

MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-

HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-

ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-

JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-

FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-

LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-

335 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY

AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED

TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST

CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORM

CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...

ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Folks...Looks as though there is a potent storm heading towards Dallas-Fort-Worth ,BEST OF LUCK...!

[John Hanrahan]

I'm delighted some of T1 will get some more action at the airport. How long more are ye hanging around before flights?

[duckeyh]

flights are at 4 6 and 9. have decided on a target but will have reposition to check in in terminal d

[John Hanrahan]

LOL

[ANYWEATHER]

Look as though a "derechho" is going through the metroplex,,...!!

[Cloud]

DFW is a great spot for watching storms as you can jump on that inter terminal train and get good panoramas. lol

Today looks very messy in Oklahoma/Kansas.

[duckeyh]

lol thats the plan ....btw core punch underway ...awesome

[Nick F]

Interesting MD for Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado Panhandles - SPC talking of possible 'Cold Core Tornadogenesis' - not often you hear that!:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0151 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...WRN KS...FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111851Z - 112015Z

THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NWRN KS INTO

SERN CO EXTENDING TO A SFC LOW 45 S LHX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH

FROM THE LOW INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE

INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT 20 E LHX EXTENDING SEWD

TO 45 ESE GUY AND FARTHER SSE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AIR

MASS BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN THE

WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS

ERODING IN MANY AREAS YIELDING FULL INSOLATION. THIS HAS ALLOWED

TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S IN THE WARM

SECTOR...AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S E/NE OF THE DRYLINE. WITHIN

THIS AREA...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE

RATES /DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER

THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES/ HAS ALLOWED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO

INCREASE TO AOA 500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING

THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SWRN KS AND SERN CO AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX

SWINGING THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH

IMPACTS THE AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 50 KT WILL

YIELD A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG

WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY BACKED INVOF THE WARM FRONT

AND TRIPLE POINT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD ALSO EVOLVE BETWEEN

THE TRIPLE POINT AND SFC LOW...WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG

LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND BUOYANCY WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR

COLD CORE TORNADOGENESIS.

..COHEN.. 05/11/2011

Nice squall line moving through Nern/Central Texas too atm, including DFW area, MD for bow echo with damagine winds out also:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0738.html

[ian cameron]

heading north of woodward now hunting down some tops 45 miles to our north glad to hear the chase is going well in DFW

[duckeyh]

thx Ian the team are taking a rest in Bennigans after the succesful core punch . briefing and pictures to be posted tomorrow

[Dorsetbred]

heading north of woodward now hunting down some tops 45 miles to our north glad to hear the chase is going well in DFW

Ian.

The two of us are happily sat in the airport lounge in DFW, with the camera aimed across the runway taking lightning shots and drinking Chardonnay.

Flight is delayed

DUE TO BAD weather, so why did you guys leave DFW area, it's been great and another cell is set to hit us soon, window seat in the lounge camera armed and ready, but will I be sober by the time I board the flight?

Next area of storms is just to the south of us right now

Edited May 11, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[ian cameron]

we are just south of Greensburg heading north there is a cell to our west trying to fire going to take a closer lok

nice one quentin yeah you are being treated to a lat show pity it is delaying your flight we are near greensburg at the mo fingers crossed

[Mikel Nimbus]

The BBC weather forecast at 10.30 tonight was ramping up the tornado risk later in the week.

Good luck guys. Looks like it could be special.

[Nick F]

Yep, can see the cell just SW/W of Dodge City, sat shows nice line of cu/cb firing along DL west of Greensburg:

Best place to be today, away from the squall line further E and SE moving through Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, certaintly for a discrete supercell with chance of a tornado.

[Neilsouth]

Anyone got a sat link of these storms building across the states?, looped...

[Dorsetbred]

Yep, can see the cell just SW/W of Dodge City, sat shows nice line of cu/cb firing along DL west of Greensburg:

Best place to be today, away from the squall line further E and SE moving through Texas, Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, certaintly for a disrete supercell with chance of a tornado.

Squall line is doing us fine, some great lightning and torrential rain, something we have searched 10days for

Next cell has gone to our SE, and the rain has eased.

Watching the cell over Dodge, I'm seeing some characteristic wrap on the radar, fingers crossed for tour 2, hope you get more than we did