Chase 2011 - Day 11 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Changeover day for Tour 1 into Tour 2 and for the lucky late departures a bonus chase day in the Low Rolling Plains below the Panhandle along a dryline. Supercell structures and some low panhandle magic should see some amazing pictures and hopefully a daytime Tornado for the departing guests

Going to go all out for the spoils on this one with 2 carloads and end tghe day late in DFW

Target at the moment somewhere between Abilene and Lubbock along the Dryline

Paul S

[nsrobins]

Looking at the 09 RUC I might position myself in far SW OK rather than TX for structure and lightning later today.

Weds is a different story and despite rumblings about poor model initiation parameters a moderate risk seems justified for a central/south plains event.

[nsrobins]

Loving the defined dryline - surface dps of 20F in Amarillo and already 64F in Childress (2m ts 75F - phew). The boundary will diffuse very slowly eastward so if it's DL storms you like then look no further than the Pease country between Hollins and Dickens. Might not have to head as far as Lubbock Paul on this one. 13Z RUC - nice CAPE realised at 22Z ahead of the DL but i can't see much in the way of directional shear although you never know - a bit of Caprock Magic perhaps? And man it's hot! <BR><BR>Edit: Actually I take back the bit on directional. Childress SkewT delivers about 60deg directional between surface and 700HPa so not to be sniffed at. <BR><BR>And just i I post I see SPC have removed the slight for my target. Bah humbug. They're wrong I reckon - just wait and see.

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like an active Thunderstorm moving towards Tulsa Judging by the latest radar...very messy out there?? <_<

[Cloud]

Is that a dry line bulge over North Tx?

[Paul]

Paul's done a briefing!

Live stream is online too:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=chaselive;sess=

[John Hanrahan]

Best briefing EVER!

[nsrobins]

Tuesday another bust (in terms of my forecast target, although I see you got some lightning action later DFW area) and I was wrong to dismiss SPC removing the slight risk. Being my own worst critic I will make at effort when I get a moment to analyse why the conditions did not spark. This is important to the learning process IMO. So, moving on . . .