Chase 2011 - Day 18 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Hoping for some Colorado Magic today but it is just nice to be back in the field and chasing after so many quiet days, have to pass through the scene of 2 of our best Tornadoes from last year as well, currently heading for Lamar (Colorado) lets see if we get an upgrade.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0715 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID

ATLANTIC AND DELMARVA REGION...

...MID ATLANTIC...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION

CENTER OVER NC TRACKING NORTHWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE MID

ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE

STORMS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER

SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DEEP NEAR-SATURATED

CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A SEMI-TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. A FEW BREAKS IN

THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTHERN NC INTO

CENTRAL VA...WHERE ONLY SLIGHT DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO

ENCOURAGE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN

THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE

QUICKLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE

AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500

J/KG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY EVENING

FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO EASTERN CO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN KS

AFTER DARK. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND

WEAK INSTABILITY PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF THOSE

STORMS THAT FORM. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES AND

DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

[Gorky]

I liked the look of the models for today so left Yellowstone a little earlier than planned to put a few more miles in and made it to Laramie, Wyoming overnight. Going to take a short trip east to Cheyenne where I know I have a 3G connection rather than the slow one I have right now and I'll check the models properly. I've seen plenty of tornadoes last year on May26th which started as a 2% day so I'm never going to rule out anything on a day like today. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to a slight risk.

[Paul Sherman]

Liking the latest RUC Which shows a nice cell popping off over our target location around 6pm ahead of the convection hugging the Rockies. Thats all 3 models showing the same so we will be off in 90 minutes for the 3-4 hour drive Northwards up Highway 287

[Supercell]

Liking the latest RUC Which shows a nice cell popping off over our target location around 6pm ahead of the convection hugging the Rockies. Thats all 3 models showing the same so we will be off in 90 minutes for the 3-4 hour drive Northwards up Highway 287

I thought we only trusted the GFS these days.

[Paul Sherman]

:lol: We have our lucky lizard with us now who we named RUC!

Btw however stunning the scenery is in the below picture we are ready for 4 days of back to back chasing now

[stevestorms]

The HRRR shows near the same maybe a little North of your Target looks good for seeing something :-) fingers crossed

[Nick F]

Yes Lamar looks a good call, two areas really in eastern Colorado I would target: north of Denver around Greely or over far eastern Colorado near Kansas Border, the former has higher CAPE shown by 12z RUC:

... the latter along KS border has better helicity indicated by both RUC and NAM and NAM shows greater CAPE in a narrow axis ahead/east of dry line, so maybe better chance of a tornado, though the supercells may be too high-based given lack of surface moisture/CAPE:

[NL]

If the GPS is correct and the team are around Kit Carson, then they're about 50 mile from a cell thats just been tornado warned.

TornadoWarning - 17/2345Z

WWUS55 KBOU 172324 SVSBOU SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 524 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2011 COC087-172345- O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110517T2345Z MORGAN CO- 524 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY... AT 524 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MORGAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE WARNED COUNTY.

[Gorky]

I spent about an hour at Fort Morgan earlier. was my original target for the day, but I bailed due to the grunge in the area... just wasn't feeling it thought it'd be better to head south and at least get closer to tomorrows target! Ooops....

[IanM]

Lol

You think you have problems, we have sent 1 car upto the Tornado warned storm with Tom, Paul S & Ian Michaelwaite and Arron are trying to change a tyre in a developing Hailstorm with rotation at the tail end of the line, bad place to be Pmsl

[Gorky]

Saw a couple of high based rope tornadoes just after my last post. Literally clicked submit, looked up and saw a distant dust swirl. 15 miles away so not got great photos :/

[Roger J Smith]

Wednesday 18th looking like a very active day in western KS with storms moving into OK around sunset. Thinking Scott City for set-up on this. Storms likely to propagate southeast late in day, chase could go south and end up near OKC.

[ian cameron]

sat just north of stratton just about to get cored hopefully

[ian cameron]

now south of bethune cell now has a meso

[UkStormChaser]

Ian,

We are all at the Burlington Inn. Please re-group. From Paul.

Oh yeah, and one rope tornado in the bag for Paul S and Ian M cars. Along with awesome HDR shots and hail video too come.

[ZONE 51]

Ian,

We are all at the Burlington Inn. Please re-group. From Paul.

Oh yeah, and one rope tornado in the bag for Paul S and Ian M cars. Along with awesome HDR shots and hail video too come.

[ian cameron]

ok heading to burlington we are 11 miles away pos flat tyre

[Gorky]

I'm at a rest stop east of Burlington midway to Goodland. Not sure I'll risk a coring to get back. Gonna decide on whether to stay here and do lightning photography, or head to Goodland and set up there. It's only 10 miles away but this line is advancing so slow....

Did any of you guys see the oil tank explosion by Kirk btw? got hit my lightning and went boom Half the field was on fire after that!

[UkStormChaser]

ok. how is your progress with the pos flat tyre

/

[Paul Sherman]

Another strange one for 2011. Ian M got a flat when we were flying north on dirt roads, was flanking 2 cells that went onto merge, the storm about 20 miles to the north went Tornado warned so we sent Tom and Ian onto it with 5 of the guests who had never seen a Tornado before, little did we know that our fun was about to begin with rotation and a Golf ball sized hail core above us, the tyre was changed in 15 minutes with a few of the lucky ones getting hit by soft golfballs, I was charged with watching the radar and keeping dry

After the tyre got changed we punched back east through more golf balls on I-70 And witnessed a Rope Funnel cloud just to our west. Then met up with the others who by now had another flatty and ended the day in yet more Hail, 70mph winds and Lightning in Burlington.

Paul S

[Gorky]

What is it with you guys and tires.. Got a saboteur in your midst? :o

Anyway, yet again, 2% Tor in Colorado works out a treat. I swear a 2% Colorado is equivalent to a moderate anywhere else... Had a pretty rough day with lots of teething issues but now resolved. I was hoping for a leisurely chase to ease me in but never mind... I'll take what I got. Everytime I had a 50/50 decision I took the wrong one it seems and ended up seeing the tornadoes from a long way off when I really shouldn't have needed to. Not too impressive from that distance. I even managed to only get 3 decent lightning shots in Goodland as bolts were crashing everywhere I wasn't aiming at and I was having trouble keeping the camera out of the rain. Can't complain with that result from a See Text though

[Nick F]

After the tyre got changed we punched back east through more golf balls on I-70 And witnessed a Rope Funnel cloud just to our west. Then met up with the others who by now had another flatty and ended the day in yet more Hail, 70mph winds and Lightning in Burlington.

Paul S

I swear US tires are sub-standard to those used in Europe or something, the sides of their interstates seem to be littered with tyre remains from blowouts.

It increases the adreneline when your chase vehicle becomes immobile, either blowout or stuck in mud on a wet dirt track, and you have a storm over you or bearing down on you. At least it wasn't a high risk tornado risk day.

[Neilsouth]

Ian,

We are all at the Burlington Inn. Please re-group. From Paul.

Oh yeah, and one rope tornado in the bag for Paul S and Ian M cars. Along with awesome HDR shots and hail video too come.

Lets just hope the HDR shots are spot on as I've got alot of experience in excelling HDR, it really needs to be done right ( the right settings and processing )

I look forward to seeing these

[TornadoJo]

Dirt Road are evil.

Nough said!

[Arron]

Quick vid of one of the cells we chased near Burlington