East & Central Pacific Invest Thread 2011

[Somerset Squall]

97E has been upped to 70%, good rotation and steadily increasing convection.

98E has been upped to 50%. The LLC is looking impressive with convection wrapping towards the centre.

I think we could well see Irwin and Jova very soon.

[summer blizzard]

97E has been upped to 70%, good rotation and steadily increasing convection.

98E has been upped to 50%. The LLC is looking impressive with convection wrapping towards the centre.

I think we could well see Irwin and Jova very soon.

A few posters on American have been excited in recent days as both GFS and ECWMF have shown the twin systems with one hitting Mexico repeatedly. Looks good.

[summer blizzard]

Both are very likely to be upgraded at the next advisory as they clearly have closed lows. 97E looks perfect.

[Somerset Squall]

97E has become Hurricane Irwin.

98E has become Tropical Storm Jova.

Invest 99E has formed several hundred miles east of TS Jova. Convection is beginning to show rotation around a broad low pressure area. Conditions are favourable for further development with low shear and warm sea temperatures in the area. NHC give a 30% chance of TD formation in the next 48hrs. Kenneth anyone?

The East Pacific is on fire at the moment! And the Atlantic is pretty quiet. What a turn around!

[summer blizzard]

97E has become Hurricane Irwin.

98E has become Tropical Storm Jova.

Invest 99E has formed several hundred miles east of TS Jova. Convection is beginning to show rotation around a broad low pressure area. Conditions are favourable for further development with low shear and warm sea temperatures in the area. NHC give a 30% chance of TD formation in the next 48hrs. Kenneth anyone?

The East Pacific is on fire at the moment! And the Atlantic is pretty quiet. What a turn around!

Ironically while the east pacific has had few storms the quality has been fantastic with the figures should both make hurricane status at 10/8/6 while the Atlantic sits at 17/4/3.

[summer blizzard]

99L is now at 90%. Jova is now a hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

99E became TD12E but failed to become a named storm.

A VERY late season invest (90E) has formed in the far east of the basin and has a good shot at becoming a tropical storm. Jeff Masters' latest blog highlights how rare named storms are after this date in a year, and why we don't normally see much TC formation in November in the East Pacific:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1988

Satellite runs show rotation evident with invest 90E, with some loosely organised convection. NHC give 90E a 10% chance of TC development within the next 24hrs. This is far as the system may take some time to develop as it is quite broad and convection is currently not deep. However, models are keen to make this system a tropical storm, and sea temps certainly still support this. One to watch.

[Somerset Squall]

90E looks close to becoming a tropical depression. Convection is gradually building towards the LLC, which is well defined. Waters are warm and shear is low. NHC give an 80% chance of 90E becoming a tropical depression in the next 48hrs.

Edited November 19, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

90E became Major Hurricane Kenneth, a cat 4 hurricane, the latest such storm on record.