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Chase 2011 - Day 20 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Well after yesterdays Cap Bust today sees a much better risk for Tornadoes from 2 plays, Triple Point in Central Kansas and Dryline further south. Am favouring the triple point in an area from Hutchinson to Hays down to Pratt for the best chance of Tornadoes at the moment.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1220 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND

CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH CLOSED UPPER LOWS

OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND OH VALLEY DRIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY

EAST. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THESE

FEATURES. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD TROUGH WRN KS ATTENDED BY A

WARM FRONT. DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN TX...WRN OK AND WRN KS

BEFORE ONCE AGAIN RETREATING OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST A WEAK OCCLUDED

LOW AND FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD BE IN

PROGRESS FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...THE

ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL

KS...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF WRN TX AS RICHER

MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY

LAYER AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO

2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH WRN KS

AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH ERN

PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. THIS ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING SUGGESTS

STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER

CNTRL KS. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S AS THE

DRYLINE MIXES EWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM

35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ISOLATED

TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...INITIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT/WARM

FRONT OVER CNTRL KS WHERE BACKED SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LARGER 0-1

KM HODOGRAPHS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK INTO TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ

STRENGTHENS AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY MORE LINEAR IN NATURE...MAY DEVELOP LATE

THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK AS PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES

THE RETREATING DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT FOR

ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Even more emphasis today on wha tthe low level cloud cover does from mid-afternoon. I'm quite liking the ever-enthusiastic GFS with it's moisture return of in excess of 60F in WC OK but as we've seen so many times ecently it's probably over-egging this a tad and as usual will probably have the dryline too far east at 21Z. If I was going to pick `a target based on my meagre analysis I'm looking at Kinsley, KS

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

SPC Raise it up to 10% hatched for much of KS and extreme northern OK. Not surprised looking at the latest HRRR WRF output which shows a nice string of supercells forming from about 3pm-4pm local time. Hutchinson was my target for today, yesterday and I don't see a whole lot of reason to drastically change that at the moment. Perhaps just a little west of there to be on the cells from initiation.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

09z RUC shows intiation in the Wichita to Hutchinson area of central Kansas too around 3pm, an area of enhanced ascent near the dryline/warm front triple point looking at forecast analysis:

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SBCAPE and 0-3km helicity looking rather favourable for tornadic supercells in this area too:

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Main limiting factor may be low cloud but already signs that this is burning off on Oklahoma City and other areas.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Decent looking Cu field developing right along and East of the dryline now with inhibition more or less diminished.

Could be a lively evening's chasing.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Some pretty robust updrafts already here on the Kingman, Harper county line

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Cell going up near Kingman has a nice base and the towers are looking good overspreading directly above me.

Also.. loving the radio at the moment. Thunderstuck by AC/DC then Rainbows in the Dark by Dio. Awaiting Gods of Thunder by Kiss next :p

... randomly... it was Kiss! but not God of thunder :p

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Upgrade to MOD risk - I still like my target of Kinsley (AKA 100mph inflow-city) for imminent initiation or just east of here. Backing surface flow should give all the chasers gathered in C KS something to get excited about pretty shortly.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Tornado watch for central Kansas, storms south of Greensburg towards OK border look interesting signature wise, just hope it's not another May 4th 2007:

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 309

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

145 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

NUMEROUS TORNADOES

ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS

WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL

HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILL

CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 307...WW 308...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS WARMED SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF WARM

FRONT...NEAR A ICT-RSL LINE...AND EAST OF A DRYLINE IN WRN KS FOR

STORMS TO INITIATE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEP LAYER

SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS...

WITH THE LARGER HAIL NEAR OR BIGGER THAN BASEBALL SIZE. ALSO...THE

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT

TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE TORNADOES ARE MOST

LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER

WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.

...IMY

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes

Likelihood High Moderate

Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind

Moderate Moderate

Severe Hail 2"+ Hail

High High

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 309

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

145 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILL

CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 307...WW 308...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS WARMED SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH OF WARM

FRONT...NEAR A ICT-RSL LINE...AND EAST OF A DRYLINE IN WRN KS FOR

STORMS TO INITIATE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEP LAYER

SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS...

WITH THE LARGER HAIL NEAR OR BIGGER THAN BASEBALL SIZE. ALSO...THE

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT

TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE TORNADOES ARE MOST

LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER

WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Unconfirmed tornado touchdown (rain-wrapped) north of Dorrance or just north of I-70 in Russel County in north central Kansas. Definate rotation shown by the velocity couplet on the storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Well I pretty much busted. Got onto the storm south of Wichita. Looked pretty good with nice midlevel inflow band. Fairly high based but crazy shotgun lightning all around. The storm split halting development for a while, but it came back with a vengeance. It displayed a good lowering for a while but then pretty much went poof in just a few minutes. I headed to the eastern storms and as I got there, the tail end charlie took a downward turn. I stopped to chat with other chasers in Lyons and whilst there, it ramped up again. I got back on the chase and as soon as I got close, it died. I called that cell off and started heading east to find a motel and the cell came back from the dead a few minutes later, a funnel was reported and I'd just ditched that cell. It was down to a rain shower at best when I left. Got back on it near Minneapolis and it looked real evil. to get out of the way of the approaching core, I took a gravel road which became dirt and it took me almost 2 hours to navigate my way out! There was just no where to turn around so I had to keep slowly driving down the mud till I got to a junction and could swing it around and do the same in reverse. The car now is covered with mud, with most of it somehow ending up on the roof, but at least I didn't get cored. Fog looks like it'll put pay to any lightning shots tonight so I've checked into a motel in Salina to be in a central location for tomorrows chase. Hoping for better luck!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Lol Nathan

Today just did not pan out the way it was supposed to, we had a strange one also, the early Elk City Supercell was close enough for us to take a peek at a nice Classic Supercell with Wall Cloud but this also had splitting issues and promptly died, then went for the Southern Kansas cell and got onto some dirt roads that took an hour to get off, a new cell then went up 45 miles to our west on the dryline away from everything else so as we now had tarmac we chased passing just west of Greensburg, again this cell split and died, then meandered west to near Dodge City and another LP Supercell formed literally to our South West, we played a bit in the hail and got some nice Pictures, then punched back through it North and it was now a HP Supercell, after we emerged battered and east of it we literally nearly had a spin up in the field next to us with the funnel cloud over our heads, again crazy pictures, ended the night in Great Bend (Kansas)

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Sounds fun. I was actually pretty sure I was going to me stuck in the mud. Left the car, not stuck, but between two hills with ditches either side to walk to a farm I'd passed about a mile back and despite a light on, nobody answered the door. Thought about sleeping in the car and shifting tomorrow when it had dried, but noticed the amount of rain forecast and decided to go for it. I've never driven so slowly and still not been in control. I was doing 1 or 2 mph and the car was not going straight! It was moving forward however. If I slid into the ditch, I was able to reverse it back to the flat as I was going up hill, and tried again. On about the 6th attempt I got to the top of the hill and was able to do an 8 point turn and then try it all in reverse. I only had about 400m of mud to navigate, if that and I was there at least 2 hours including the walk :p. The Escape actually feels worse on the mud than last years Nissan Versa, mainly because I can't work out how to disable traction control on it. there's a TCS button but pressing it does nothing! Last thing I want when trying to gun it up a muddy hill is for the car to just remove power because the wheel spun.... Give me a manual anyday...

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