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Super Typhoon Songda


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The fourth TC of the season has formed from invest 98W, which has rapidly organised over the past 24hrs. Intensity is 30kts. TD 04W is located at 8N, 142E and has a good amount of convection over the increasingly well defined LLC, with some good banding in the southern semicircle. As I discussed in the invest thread, outflow and low level convergence were poor, but now both of these environmental factors have improved markedly. Coupled with the low shear and warm water, it has caused some rapid development. 04W is moving west-northwestward on the southwestern side of a subtropical steering ridge at present, which takes the cyclone in the direction of Luzon. Long term motion is uncertain due to poor model agreement, so it is too early to tell when/if there will be a landfall. With the favourable conditions however, there is more confidence in the depression intensifying over the next couple days.

EDIT: JTWC forecast just out is very aggressive with the intensity, which is not surprising due to the small size of the system and the very favourable environment ahead. JTWC forecast an intensity of 95kts by 120hrs.

Edited by M'Lady
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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

A burst of convection covered a before partially exposed LLCC.

TD4 is not in very favorable environment and NW shear is affecting TD4.

A forecast for TD4 forecasts recurving to east of Luzon and track to Japan.

Edited by Wobbuffet
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

04W has struggled under unexpected northerly shear over the last day. However, the shear is now easing some some explosive convection has fired over the LLC, which, as Wobbuffet described, was partially exposed. Waters are very warm at around 30C, and with shear expected to now stay low, some significant strengthening should occur. Outflow is also expected to improve vastly, aiding the strengthening. Although 04W is likely to recurve east of Luzon, the storm is likely to get close enough to provide flooding rains (and high winds to the east coast). Any westwards deviation in track could bring a landfall of a significant typhoon, as JTWC are expecting 04W to have an intensity of 105kts by day 5. Looks like the season is kicking off early this year!

wp0411.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Depression 04W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Songda, with intensity rising to 35kts.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed Cookie, shaping up to be a real beast this one, and quite early in the season! Songda has some deep convection over the LLC which is forming into a currently slightly irregular central dense overcast. Banding is becoming stronger too, and intensity has risen to 45kts. With shear expected to remain low and waters a toasty 30C, further strengthening is likely. JTWC expect Songda to be a 115kt cat 4 by Friday, very near to the east coast of Luzon (as shown by the track map above), which is quite concerning. Songda is still travelling along the southwestern periphery of the steering ridge to the north and east, which is expected to be broken down by an advancing trough off mainland China in the coming days, inducing a poleward turn in Songda's track. I don't think this turn will happen soon enough to spare Luzon (especially the east of the country) some dangerously high winds and flooding rains, even though a direct landfall is not forecast at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Intensity has increased to 55kts, and JTWC expect Songda to be the season's first typhoon within the next 12hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Songda has not intensified as quickly as forecast due to an increase in northwesterly shear. Intensity has risen modestly to 60kts. Banding in Songda's southern quadrant is still quite strong but central convection has weakened over the last few hours. The moderate shear is also reducing poleward outflow causing subsidence over the northern quadrant resulting in diminishing convection. This shear is expected to ease for the second time and finally allow Songda to become a typhoon. The rest of the forecast remains practically the same, with a re-curve scenario just east of Luzon and Taiwan, and the storm reaching a peak intensity of 115kts once the environment becomes favourable again.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Songda has finally become a typhoon, with intensity now at 65kts. The structure of Songda now indicates some faster intensification providing the upper level environment remains favourable. An eye is clear to see on satellite imagery, surrounded by a well formed CDO and good banding. The eye is fairly small and is becoming better defined with time. A re-curve is still expected east of Luzon and then Taiwan. Songda should eventually become extratopical south of Japan.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

As I said earlier, Songda is strengthening at a faster rate now due to the typhoon finally sorting it's structure out and escaping that shear. Intensity has risen to 75kts. JTWC forecasting Songda to peak at low end cat 4 on SS scale.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Songda has rapidly intensified overnight, with intensity increasing to 105kts, making the typhoon a cat 3 on the SS scale. Further strengthening is likely under low shear and over waters of around 30C. JTWC officially forecast a peak of 125kts, but it is possible Songda could become stronger than this before reaching cooler water. Songda, as it has got stronger, has contracted in size and the intense typhoon is now quite small. This is good news for Luzon, unless the typhoon deviates westward from the forecast track. Songda should pass well east of Taiwan so shouldn't cause too many problems here. However, Songda could give some very high winds and heavy rain to Japan as it becomes extratropical just south of the country.

wp042011.11052506.gif

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

Songda is a strong Category 3 typhoon with winds about 120 mph.

5-day forecast:post-15004-0-56339900-1306331912_thumb.g

Edited by Wobbuffet
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

It certainly is Cookie. I don't think it's totally out of the question that Songda could become a cat 5. Intensity is low 115kts, making Songda a cat 4 on SS scale.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Songda has become a Super Typhoon, with intensity rising to 130kts this morning, high end cat 4. Songda could strengthen a little more with low shear persisting, along with excellent outflow and sea temps of around 30C. Cat 5 status is certainly a possibility, despite not being explicitly forecast by the JTWC.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Songda has become a category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds rising to a whopping 140kts. Songda has a perfectly defined eye embedded in a near circular CDO feature. Eyewall replacement cycles will determine intensity changes in the next 24hrs until the environment deteriorates.

Songda is the first category 5 tropical cyclone on the SS scale so far this year worldwide.

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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

Songda photogallery

Satellite images

supersongdawpac2011sat2.jpg

supersongdawpac2011sat3.jpg

Microwawes

supersongdawpac2011mwaw.jpg

supersongdawpac2011mwaw.jpg

Forecast

supersongdawpac20115d2.gif

Songda is a Category 4 supertyphoon with sustained winds of 150 mph and it will recurve north-northeastward ahead of trough Songda started to interact with.

Cloud tops are slightly warming.

Songda is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and new eyewall is developing in decaying outer eyewall.

Edited by Wobbuffet
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thanks for the images Wobbuffet, what a beauty!

As you quite rightly described, Songda is completing an eye wall replacement which has caused Songda to weaken to 125kts. Songda is moving over decreasing ocean heat content and increasing shear, so even after the cycle is complete, Songda should continue to weaken from now.

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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

Songda become extratropical yesterdaj mornng,but JTWC put it active all morning and afternoon.I think they wanted earliest tropical storm landfall in Japan in history.

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