Model Watch - Tour 4

[Paul]

Only 12 days until the start of tour 4, so time to tune in to some model watching for it, particularly as I'll be out on this one

For those on the tour, your final info packs will be on their way to you this weekend (on email)..

Obviously we're way out currently, but on today's charts the severe risk at the start of the tour is way up north, so a big drive in prospect to get up there!

[Dorsetbred]

HEADLINE NEWS

Paul Sherman, Netweather TV's storm chasing expert was heard to say today, after looking at the 12 day models....

"It looks like this year is going to my first in capturing a tornado in Canada.

This year has really been an unusual one, but a touchdown in Canada would make my year"

[Supercell 89]

HEADLINE NEWS

Paul Sherman, Netweather TV's storm chasing expert was heard to say today, after looking at the 12 day models....

"It looks like this year is going to my first in capturing a tornado in Canada.

This year has really been an unusual one, but a touchdown in Canada would make my year"

That would be awesome but along drive from Dallas though

[Supercell 89]

What's the furthest North you've chased in a season Paul? We managed South Dakota last year

[Dorsetbred]

Something else tour 4 might want to watch for.

Grimsvötn volcano has started to erupt in Iceland which might cause some fun and games for return flights!

Fingers crossed it doesn't cause any issues.

Edited May 22, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[jimbo36]

PANIC.....

Can someone advise what else may determine the direction of the volcanic ash cloud, current GFS forecast for next Wednesday morning shows jet stream directly from Iceland to UK.

Worried for tour 4 flights as i'm on it :-(

[Paul]

I'd not start to panic as yet - it may not even be erupting any more at that point.

[Mikel Nimbus]

It is a bit of a worry but having experienced the same thing on tour 1 last year, things seemed to return to normal quite quickly once the ash was blowing elsewhere. The airlines will always honour the tickets of the passengers on that flight and re-schedule other passengers around that.

GFS showing northerly set up for the whole UK on Tuesday before Azores high creeps up on Wednesday. ECM makes for much better viewing with a ridge over S'ern England much earlier.

As for stateside, is it still too early to be taking GFS seriously? TX and OK seem to have some good CAPE values for the rest of tour 3.

Edited May 25, 2011 by Mikel Nimbus

[Paul]

Ash situation looks like an improving one at the moment, so hopefully it stays that way.

Models also looking pretty good - obviously some way off though and always subject to change.

First chase day, plenty of energy!

Jet a bit far north, so maybe not too much potential for anything really severe

But still plenty of convective stuff going on

Next day not looking too bad either

[jimbo36]

Ash situation looks like an improving one at the moment, so hopefully it stays that way.

Models also looking pretty good - obviously some way off though and always subject to change.

First chase day, plenty of energy!

Jet a bit far north, so maybe not too much potential for anything really severe

But still plenty of convective stuff going on

Next day not looking too bad either

Cheers Paul, looking good to start with, volcano can do what it likes once we're out there, don't mind being delayed coming home!! was stuck in Florida for 12 days last year because of ash cloud, so looks like this one's got my name on it again!!

Edited May 25, 2011 by Paul
Mended the layout!

[Supercell 89]

Looking good ref the Ash Cloud with High pressure ridging in mid-week next week but even better than that the Volcano has stopped erupting ...for now lol

Edited May 26, 2011 by Supercell 89

[Nick F]

Just having a scan of the 12z GFS and ECM and not the best picture for severe storms on first chase day of Thurs 2nd June, a large upper ridge across the mid-west may rule out severe storms across much of the Plains,

though perhaps stronger upper winds and enough cyclonic flow towards the Great Lakes together with moisture for a few storms across Minnesota, the Dakotas and Iowa:

These charts still way out at 180 hours, so subject to change, though theme of upper ridge over the mid-west has been there over last few days' runs. Looking further ahead out to t+240 into the first weekend of June, the upper ridge still there on ECM and GFS cancelling out severe storms apart from maybe over the northern Plains States bordering Canada where a faster more cyclonic flow is evident. So maybe a long drive north for Tour 4 as it stands atm.

[Supercell 89]

Certainly looks like being a very hot week for a large swathe of the US next week. To my untrained eye i'd say Thursday & Friday isn't looking top bad and has some potential from the latest outputs? Then again i could be wrong

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

Only got two days left now! For those jetting out on Wednesday, my flight is at 11.25am from T5 if anybody fancied meeting up before jetting off? Message me if your interested

Edited May 29, 2011 by Supercell 89

[jimbo36]

Certainly looks like being a very hot week for a large swathe of the US next week. To my untrained eye i'd say Thursday & Friday isn't looking top bad and has some potential from the latest outputs? Then again i could be wrong

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

Only got two days left now! For those jetting out on Wednesday, my flight is at 11.25am from T5 if anybody fancied meeting up before jetting off? Message me if your interested

i'm flying from gatwick > atlanta > dallas so see you there

[Kris T]

Certainly looks like being a very hot week for a large swathe of the US next week. To my untrained eye i'd say Thursday & Friday isn't looking top bad and has some potential from the latest outputs? Then again i could be wrong

http://www.hpc.ncep....ov/medr/9kh.gif http://www.hpc.ncep....ov/medr/9lh.gif

Only got two days left now! For those jetting out on Wednesday, my flight is at 11.25am from T5 if anybody fancied meeting up before jetting off? Message me if your interested

I'm on the 3:15pm flight from T3 so I'll see you in Texas!

[Supercell 89]

Alright cool, I shall see you all there

[nsrobins]

A rather 'slack' start to Tour 4 in a ridgy set-up with only text to slight risks within reach for Thurs and Fri (I assume today is changeover).

I think there could be some structure to be had Thurs over Far W OK/CO border with elevated storms likely but the general pattern dictates you'll need to go along way north for substantial parameters until the weekend at least.

This may change with lee troughs - tricky to forecast and even harder to localise - offering more hope in the west central plains should they appear.

[Roger J Smith]

Tomorrow (Thursday 2nd) looks good for discrete supercell development in eastern Colorado along a slow-moving but intense cold front. There are also good dynamics setting up in parts of NE and SD but I would imagine that's too far from DFW for tomorrow's planning.

Somewhere around Limon CO would be my suggested chase target and once developed, any cells are not likely to move ultra fast, with considerable backbuilding potential suggesting that these may provide good to excellent viewing potential.

[Nick F]

Looks like the severe storm potential for chasing on Tour 4 will slowly retreat north over the coming days, as a sub-tropical ridge builds north and NW over the Plains.

I'm not sure if today's the first chase day for Tour 4 or not, but looks like potential for some supercells to develop along the dryline later over the TX and OK Panhandles and western Kansas and the far NE of New Mexico and far SE of Colorado. I would target somewhere like Guymon in OK Panhandle.

For Friday, cold front moves SE from Wyoming and Dakotas, so storms look like developing along this boundary in the afternoon/evening through western Kansas and through central and eastern Nebraska, SPC have only a see text, but should think this will upgrade to SLIGHT risk on later outlooks.

For Saturday, the cold front looks like becoming stationary through Nebraska, Iowa and further east into Ohio, so severe storms redevoloping along this during afternoon/evening, Ern Nebraska and Iowa perahps a good bet.

Sunday sees strong ridging over much of the Mid-west, though some storms are indicated across the upper Mississippi valley. Monday and Tuesday height falls are indicated over the northern plains/northern High Plains as the trough over western US slowly makes inroads east across the mountain west - so potential for severe storms across Montana and into the Dakotas.

So a long drive north over the coming days to keep up with the action!!

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Nick

You pretty much put down my thoughts for the first 5 days on the trip

Leaving DFW Today and heading up the 287 for the Panhandle risk, then onto Western Kansas, then its further North for days 3-5 with Tuesday looking good at the moment.

Paul S