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Iceland’s Grímsvötn Volcano


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

New dedicated thread for discussion specifically on the Grímsvötn (Grimsvoetn) Volcano

Ash from an erupting Icelandic volcano is expected to reach Britain by tomorrow, airlines have been warned. The ash could force the authorities to shut airports and close UK airspace, in a move which could disrupt many thousands of passengers almost exactly a year since a different Icelandic volcano closed airspace across Europe.The latest warning is based on five-day weather forecasts but experts said the wind patterns were changeable and could yet sweep the cloud away from the UK.Aviation authorities yesterday said no disruption was expected to European or transatlantic airspace over the next 24 hours.

However, if the eruption continues at the same rate and winds do not change, ash could reach northern Scotland by tomorrow and spread to England, France and even Spain by Thursday or Friday, forecasters said.Grimsvoetn, Iceland’s most active volcano at the heart of its biggest glacier, began erupting late on Saturday, sending a plume of smoke and ash 12miles high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/8529178/Ash-cloud-from-Icelandic-volcano-to-hit-Britain-tomorrow.html

Ash coverage maps from the MetO:

VAG_1306129365.png

The eruption began after 17:30 on Saturday May 21st (see photos). The altitude of the plume is monitored by two weather radars, one located in Keflavík International Airport 220 km from the volcano, and a mobile one currently situated approx. 80 km away from the volcano.

Initially the plume reached approx. 20 km altitude but during the night it fell to 15 km, occasionally rising to 20 km. During the morning of the 22nd the plume was lower still, or at around 10 km in altitude, rising occasionally to 15 km.

Lightning is monitored using the British Met. Office lightning detection system. Lighthing activity follows a similar pattern as the plume altitude with intermittent periods of strong lightning activity. During the most intense lightning period the number of lightnings per hour were 1000 times more than during the Eyjafjallajokull Eruption.

The Grímsvötn volcano is Iceland‘s most active volcano. It last erupted in 2004 and the current eruption is in a similar location. Flash floods south of the volcano often occur associated with eruptions, but can also happen in between eruptions. The latest such flood occurred in October 2010, so a big flood currently appears unlikely.

The MODIS satellite picture taken around 5 o'clock this morning shows the plume; at sunrise the plume casts a dark shadow to the west:

modis_truecol_P20111420510.jpg

http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/2011/nr/2177

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Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.

nice images! thanks coast!!

and oh dear here we go again!!! Is this going to be as bad as eyjaf in regard to closed airspace in the UK i wonder! Im interested in how the airline agencies respond to this one :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

and oh dear here we go again!!! Is this going to be as bad as eyjaf in regard to closed airspace in the UK i wonder! Im interested in how the airline agencies respond to this one :rolleyes:

According tp the news they are 'in a better position this time around'. I'm not quite sure if that means they were too cautious before or they are now not prepared to take a few calculated risks to keep the UK airspace open and traffic flowing.

This is what Eurocontrol are saying as the CAA are still quiet at the moment:

CFMU have been advised by Icelandic met office that there has been a volcanic eruption of volcano Grimsvotn in Iceland at 20110521 1900Z. The plume hight estimated by radar 8-12km.

ASH CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH SCOTLAND ON TUEDSDAY 24TH MAY.

IF VOLCANIC EMISSIONS CONTINUE WITH SAME INTENSITY CLOUD MIGHT

REACH WEST FRENCH AIRSPACE AND NORTH SPAIN ON THURSDAY 26TH MAY.

NO AIRSPACE CLOSURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW EXCEPT IN ICELANDIC AIRSPACE/AERODROMES.

ALL ICELANDIC A/D'S ARE CLOSED FOR IFR-TRAFFIC UNTIL 1900 UTC ON 23RD MAY, AND IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSED.

NEXT TELECONFERENCE IS PLANNED AT 0800 UTC ON 23RD MAY.

IN THE MEANTIME AIRCRAFT OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ALL RELEVANT NOTAMS, SIGMETS AND THE ASH CONCENTRATION CHARTS ON WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES.

https://www.public.cfmu.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

Currently no delays to talk of:

post-6667-0-28859000-1306136987.jpg

Here is the MetO ash chart for tomorrow night:

VME06_ASH_CONC_FL000-200DT201105230300VT201105240000IT230600_T018.PNG

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/volcano/public/natlantic.html

As a complete coincidence, ICAO Europe carried out a training exercise recently:

Paris (France), 14 March 2011 – The European and North Atlantic Volcanic Ash Exercises Steering Group (EUR/NAT VOLCEX/SG) of the EANPG COG and NAT IMG has been finalizing preparations for the next regional volcanic ash exercise – named Exercise VOLCEX11/01 – that will take place on the 13 and 14 April 2011. Exercise VOLCEX11/01 will exercise an eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano in Iceland, with a simulated volcanic ash cloud spreading south across North Atlantic and European airspace.

http://www.paris.icao.int/index.htm

Latest decoded METAR for Glasgow airport:

Location...........: EGPF

Day of month.......: 23

Time...............: 07:50 UTC

Wind...............: true direction = 200 degrees; speed = 23 knots with gusts of 34 knots

Visibility.........: 8000 m

Weather............: in the vicinity shower(s) of

Cloud coverage.....: broken (5 to 7 oktas) at 1500 feet above aerodrome level

Cloud coverage.....: overcast (8 oktas) at 2000 feet above aerodrome level

Temperature........: 12 degrees Celsius

Dewpoint...........: 10 degrees Celsius

QNH (msl pressure).: 998 hPa

Since the previous observation (but not at present), the following

meteorological phenomena were observed: rain

volcano_1902354c.jpg

8dCjfMep-CBN6wMaRiIwmQl3eO4xWdUDeETzWmgv6sWg.jpg

post-6667-0-28859000-1306136987_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

English translation of a Norwegian article:

Ashes of the volcanic eruption in Iceland last night has spread, and Iceland has closed all its airspace for air traffic. This means that it not yet going to fly to or from Iceland. Chief of the control centers lane of Avinor, Jens Petter Duestad, says that the Icelandic government that the air will determine how long it will be closed, but the radar images he has seen indications that the situation will not change over the next 24 hours.

This will konsevensar for all traffic in Icelandic airspace , also traffic to and from Norwegian airfields. Flights to the west, such as the United States, flying in a different route far north or south of the Island, "said Jens Petter Duestad, head of the lane control centers in Avinor . He estimates that there may be delays for those who want the road, but that the Norwegian airspace not yet been hit by volcanic eruption.

New aviation maps during the night shows the distribution of ash with a high concentration from Iceland and the north. Duestad says that the aviation authorities in Iceland that will control all routing of air traffic. There may be delays, but it depends on how much traffic is. Sunday is normally a day with fewer passengers than the rest of the week. It is very difficult to say how many people will be affected by route changes, he says.

Geologist Hjörleifur Sveinbjørnsson of Iceland Meteorological Institute says the BBC that although this is a violent eruption, there is little chance that it will be as big as last year. But the Icelandic air authorities have introduced a no fly zone in a radius of 220 kilometers around Grimsvötn.

Hjördis Gudmindsdottir, spokeswoman at the Icelandic Aviation Authority, said that the airspace is closed until they get a better overview of the consequences. She confirms that the closure will affect all traffic to and from Iceland.

http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/verden/1.7642887

The ash from Grimsvötn is not so fine-grained as the ashes from the eruption of Eyafjällajøkulll last year which apparently means they are falling to the ground faster.

f6zJ-lNDBTLZ0rgVB50PTQBqFyxqqB17qS9XAlKevhUA.jpg

Fantastic lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PdBPV3wxz8

Current satellite:

post-6667-0-93327100-1306141185.jpg

Iceland's aviation authority said on Monday it hoped to reopen the island's main airport later today or tonight after it was closed due to an eruption at the country's most active volcano at the weekend.

"It looks better today and we are hoping to reopen Keflavik airport later today or tonight. We are not quite sure at what hour, but at least we are looking at it being possible," aviation authority spokeswoman Hjordis Gudmundsdottir said.

Keflavik is Iceland's main airport, located near the capital Reykjavik.

Gudmundsdottir said there were indications that the ash cloud could be clearing above the North Atlantic island, though it was too soon to know for sure and that a more detailed assessment would be made later on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/23/uk-iceland-volcano-airport-idUSLNE74M00O20110523

post-6667-0-93327100-1306141185_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

strangely, not a single earthquake recorded in iceland for about the past 7 hours

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Posted
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.

Lots of new pictures this morning on Iceland Review Online. Ash especially.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

strangely, not a single earthquake recorded in iceland for about the past 7 hours

The blogs are discussing this - small earthquakes are happening but the harmonic tremor seems to be drowning them out, apparently.

Pretty much all of the helicorders on the island seem to be showing the harmonic tremor signal, from what I can make out:

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/allarsort.html

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
http://www.metoffice..._1306151334.png , latest predictions from the VAAC (Met Office). Places the ash cloud right over Scotland and Ireland at 06z tommorow morning. I'd imagine airspace up here will be shut and the transatlantics from Heathrow/The Continent will be routed much further south , but we'll see what happens.
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

The blogs are discussing this - small earthquakes are happening but the harmonic tremor seems to be drowning them out, apparently.

Pretty much all of the helicorders on the island seem to be showing the harmonic tremor signal, from what I can make out:

http://hraun.vedur.i.../allarsort.html

some quakes have appeared which were'nt there earlier. they must be sorting the data to filter them out from the harmonic tremor

does anyone know how they arrive at a negative magnitude value?

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland
  • Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

Aberdeen Airport tweets:

We remain open just now, and in the longer term we are taking advice from the experts. The decision to fly will rest with airlines.

Airlines and helicopter operators will take those decision based on their own risk assesments - a change from the way we operated last year.

We will play our part in helping them get all the data they need to make an informed decision.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Latest update from Eurocontrol:

The daily plan for volcanic ash conference is as follows:

0800, 1400 and 1900 UTC

NEXT TELECONFERENCE IS PLANNED AT 1400 UTC ON 23RD MAY.

According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in London,

depending on the continuing eruption of the volcano and the meteorological conditions,

there is a risk that some ash cloud may reach parts of northern Europe in the next 48 hours.

IN THE MEANTIME AIRCRAFT OPERATORS ARE STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ALL RELEVANT NOTAMS, SIGMETS AND THE ASH CONCENTRATION CHARTS ON WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND UPDATES.

The current active Notams are: A0209, A0210 and A0211/11

CAA update as follows:

The UK Civil Aviation Authority today said that new arrangements put in place since last year’s volcanic ash cloud would ensure high levels of public safety while helping to limit any disruption in the event that volcanic ash reaches UK airspace this week. But the CAA warned that disruption to aviation couldn’t be ruled out.

The current weather outlook suggests that there is the possibility of ash reaching Scottish airspace from Tuesday onwards, and affecting other parts of the UK and Ireland later in the week.

The CAA is actively monitoring the situation and is in close touch with the Met Office, Department for Transport, airlines and airports and NATS, the UK air traffic services provider. The impact of volcanic ash on aviation would depend on weather patterns, and the nature and density of ash present in the airspace.

Since last year’s volcanic ash crisis, measures have been put in place to ensure preparedness for a similar event. In the event that UK airspace is affected, the following arrangements will apply:

• Areas of high, medium and low density ash will be identified using information provided by the Met Office’s Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. This is based on data provided from the source of the volcano, satellite, and weather balloons, as well as ground based instrumentation such as radar

• Information on the high and medium density zones will be communicated to the aviation industry by means of a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM)

• Any UK airline wishing to operate in areas of medium or high density ash, will need to have a safety case approved by the CAA. Many airlines already have such safety cases in place and agreed for medium density. None has so far submitted a safety case to operate in high density ash.

• A safety case sets out the measures airlines will put in place to mitigate the risk of flying through ash. They also include input from aircraft and engine manufacturers. Safety cases have been used by airlines for many years to set out how they will safely deal with other unusual or challenging issues.

Andrew Haines, Chief Executive of the CAA, said:

“Our number one priority is to ensure the safety of people both onboard aircraft and on the ground. We can’t rule out disruption, but the new arrangements that have been put in place since last year’s ash cloud mean the aviation sector is better prepared and will help to reduce any disruption in the event that volcanic ash affects UK airspace.â€

http://www.caa.co.uk/application.aspx?catid=14&pagetype=65&appid=7&newstype=n&mode=detail&nid=1996

If you want the ICAO volcanic ash contingency program, it can be downloaded in .pdf format here:

http://www.paris.icao.int/documents_open/show_file.php?id=334

Looks like it will be across Scotland at lower levels tomorrow:

VME06_ASH_CONC_FL000-200DT201105230900VT201105240600IT231200_T018.PNG

Several NOTAMS (Notifications for Airmen)are running for the area between Scotland and Iceland, obviously some are for the high winds but others for the ash fallout:

FVXX01 EGRR 231146

VA ADVISORY

DTG: 20110523/1200Z

VAAC: LONDON

VOLCANO: GRIMSVOTN 1703-01

PSN: N6425 W01720

AREA: ICELAND

SUMMIT ELEV: 1725

ADVISORY NR: 2011/009

INFO SOURCE: ICELANDIC MET OFFICE

AVIATION COLOUR CODE: RED

ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION CONTINUING

OBS VA DTG: 23/1200Z

post-6667-0-91703600-1306162132.jpg

http://notaminfo.com/ukmap

post-6667-0-91703600-1306162132_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Aberdeen Airport tweets:

Current METAR for them is:

Location...........: EGPD

Day of month.......: 23

Time...............: 14:20 UTC

Wind...............: true direction = 210 degrees; speed = 25 knots with gusts of 50 knots

Wind direction.....: variable between 180 and 240 degrees

Visibility.........: 10 km or more

Weather............: in the vicinity shower(s) of

Cloud coverage.....: few (1 to 2 oktas) at 3800 feet above aerodrome level

Cloud coverage.....: scattered (3 to 4 oktas) at 4400 feet above aerodrome level

Temperature........: 13 degrees Celsius

Dewpoint...........: 04 degrees Celsius

QNH (msl pressure).: 990 hPa

Next 2 hours.......: no significant changes

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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

New webcam in Grimsvotn area now up and running. Not a lot to see at the moment because of ash cloud but I apparently managed to first view it during a tremor. At first I thought it was extremely windy when I opened the page, then the shaking stopped abruptly and didn't recur so I realised I was lucky enough to view it during a tremor. In the words of my sons, COOL!

http://live.mila.is/grimsvotn2/

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

New webcam in Grimsvotn area now up and running. Not a lot to see at the moment because of ash cloud but I apparently managed to first view it during a tremor. At first I thought it was extremely windy when I opened the page, then the shaking stopped abruptly and didn't recur so I realised I was lucky enough to view it during a tremor. In the words of my sons, COOL!

http://live.mila.is/grimsvotn2/

Either it's very windy or there's an earthquake going on. I'm going for windy.

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Posted
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex
  • Location: Bognor Regis West Sussex

Either it's very windy or there's an earthquake going on. I'm going for windy.

Ah PIT I am so disappointed. I refreshed the page and you are right, it is wind! Sorry for the misinformation folks. must be it stopped shaking when the page froze. :oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
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Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire

Not looking too good for air travel

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

British Airways and KLM have now also cancelled flights to scotland tommorow

http://www.ajc.com/business/british-airways-cancels-its-954758.html

"British Airways says it is canceling all Tuesday morning flights between London and Scotland Tuesday morning because of forecasts of volcanic ash in Scottish airspace."

"Royal Dutch Airlines KLM says that it is canceling more than a dozen flights to and from Scotland and northern England because of the volcanic ash cloud from Iceland. The airline says on its website Monday evening that 16 flights scheduled for Tuesday morning to and from Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle will be cancelled."

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