Chase 2011 - Day 28 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

After a travel day back to Oklahoma we get back into the action with a decent Dryline Set-Up for Friday.

Could be a late start!

[chionomaniac]

I guess I would probably head towards Seiling - Fairview Ok area ( nowhere near Amarillo!) but would keep an eye on the dryline positioning in the morning. ( I now know that this is can be done visually as well as looking at the dewpoints).

[nsrobins]

Capping issues today. Gradient of DL should be enough to get parcels to condense in nice moisture ahead of it but positioning will very much be a visual check to see if Cu can become aggitated.

Good structure to be had if it does get going though tor risks low at this point.

Later in the weekend and it's up to the northern high plains at last?!

[nsrobins]

There may be a tad more in this evening than the SPC are making out - if anyone is interested in having a go.

IF a storm can fire, and given that RUC drop inhibition in SW OK at 22Z, then a really nice supercell of two is possible and in these slight risk marginal set-ups it's always worth a stab as you never know.

Lawton, OK for an easy late lunch I reckon.

You may be thinking ahead to set-ups further north of course.

[Harry]

All I can say is keep in mind the Hope, KS supercell last year, which erupted pretty much on top of us.

That was a Slight Risk, 7pm initiation and turned out to be the only tornadic supercell in the whole of the US that day, and with the exception of our German colleagues were pretty much the only chasers on it.

[Roger J Smith]

Likely to see one or two supercells near dry-line in w OK after 20z ... with jet further north, and model evolution showing strong potential overnight, would suspect nw OK might fire bigger cells across from near Woodward at first towards Ponca City and then towards north of Tulsa and Joplin again.

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

Cap Bust is the major concern and must be the favourite for today, anything which goes up will be a bonus and will be pounced upon :lol:

Chance 2 will be elevated Storms overnight in NE Oklahoma, SE Kansas and SW Missouri and we need to head north for 3 straight days of chasing in Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota on Monday before the long drive back on Tuesday.

Throw in Arrons 30th Birthday tomorrow and Johns Tirty Tird on Tuesday and we have some busy days ahead! :lol:

[icbinb]

Back to Weatherford for me today. Good luck.

[Arron]

Heading west towards El Reno, OK area for lunch. Probably see some damage on route on the stream.

[Rob]

I am extremeley jealous of everyone on the chase, it's been an amazing year for tornadoes. I bet when i decide to go it will be dead!

[chionomaniac]

Small area MD issued for mid S OK and Mid N TX.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0997.html

I see that there are two drylines.

[Arron]

Just playing the waiting game now in Weatherford.

[nsrobins]

AgCu in a line Lawton to Wichita F to Graham on vis sat - along forward DL.

Might be worth a wander SW from your position - as per earlier anylsis I think a cell or two could fire in next hour.

[NL]

Hope the cap breaks close to your position and get on a fantastic storm. If one does fire I think the structures will be spellbounding.. Good luck.

Nothing showing on the latest visible satellite image.

[Nick F]

18z RUC / 20z RR suggests cap going just NW of Oklahoma City at 00z UTC (18z CDT):

Nice cumulus field in that area too. Still high risk of a cap bust though ...

[Gorky]

I'm sat up in Perry at the moment. A touch further North than I actually intended but I got carried away on the I35 listening to the radio... Still think we'll see the cap go a little NW of OKC and storms move uptowards Stillwater at about 6:00pm to 6:30ish but if not, I'll just continue north to position for tomorrow so no big loss! For most of the day, the HRRR say no storms and RUC says all things go within 2 hours. If the HRRR has come around then it looks promising as I respect that model a fair bit.

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, put down those DQs and get ready for explosive development between OKC and END, energy peak at 02z (9 pm) should fire off storms and then overnight a massive lightning display near OK-KS border.

Temps in the hot, dry air mass have soared beyond 40 C across much of west TX and even sw OK, but KS has remained fairly cool in an east wind (27 C), the hot humid air mass will be forced to ascend by the oncoming pressure falls in the heat low near SPS. Can see lines of cumulus on satellite that should form cells by 0030z.

[Nick F]

21z RUC suggests a late cap break between 00z UTC (6pm) and 03z UTC (9pm CDT), this time around Gorky's location between OK City and Kansas border

in I-35 corridor:

- 00z (6pm)

- 03z (9pm)

be interesting to see how right it is ...

[Arron]

Decided to call it a day and head to Enid for food, then gonna jump on the I35 and cut down the driving for tomorrow.

[nsrobins]

The weather's a right old stubborn so and so sometimes. The cap just remained too strong exactly where instability and forcing (what there was) was highest and the cork just held on.

North now.