Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[tomp456]

Why is there so much talk of thunderstorms today/tonight. Ive 'will it thunder' a few places and all of them are saying 6-10% risk.. meh.

[AWD]

Why is there so much talk of thunderstorms today/tonight. Ive 'will it thunder' a few places and all of them are saying 6-10% risk.. meh.

Proobably because it's the most action we've had in weeks!

Desperate times!!

[Harry]

Why is there so much talk of thunderstorms today/tonight. Ive 'will it thunder' a few places and all of them are saying 6-10% risk.. meh.

The 'G' in GFS does not stand for God. The storm risk charts are based on GFS data which does get it wrong from time to time.

There are equally reputable models (UKMO, NAE for example) which suggest a different picture...

What is unclear as you rightly say, is a. whether it will rain (there seems to be little disagreement that it will rain in the S at some point) and b. whether it will be convective enough to bring thunder.

GFS says (for all intents and purposes) no - that doesn't mean others aren't.

[Stormyking]

Hmm that was an interesting night last night, started from 11pm till about 2am. Lightning was every 2-3 seconds pretty much so it was good to watch and hearing the distant thunder too

Now we have nice refreshing rain

[Harry]

Hmm that was an interesting night last night, started from 11pm till about 2am. Lightning was every 2-3 seconds pretty much so it was good to watch and hearing the distant thunder too

Now we have nice refreshing rain

Lucky sod - you manage to take any pics?

I see those showers now starting to develop in the channel and up towards the Kent coast...would suggest to me the zone of moisture is possibly trying to push back in - how far it will get though who knows - the precise path and behaviour of shallow lows is exceptionally difficult for any model to predict, even in the immediate time frame

Edited June 5, 2011 by Harry

[lewisosd]

Rain??? - I Will have to Wikki that one.

LOL :lol:

[Stormyking]

Lucky sod - you manage to take any pics?

I see those showers now starting to develop in the channel and up towards the Kent coast...would suggest to me the zone of moisture is possibly trying to push back in - how far it will get though who knows - the precise path and behaviour of shallow lows is exceptionally difficult for any model to predict, even in the immediate time frame

Hehe, I actually didnt as i have actually lost my camera, woulda been better if i was with my friend as he woulda lent me one of his cameras

Im still yet to get my first ever Lightning picture grr lolol

[Lauren]

Lucky sod - you manage to take any pics?

I see those showers now starting to develop in the channel and up towards the Kent coast...would suggest to me the zone of moisture is possibly trying to push back in - how far it will get though who knows - the precise path and behaviour of shallow lows is exceptionally difficult for any model to predict, even in the immediate time frame

I think if we do get anything (which I highly doubt) I think it will happen late afternoon, early evening. I'm almost 100% sure that will just be heavy rain though.

[MP-R]

Plenty of showers in the Channel gaining in size and moving northwestwards so perhaps a shot later on. Meanwhile, the sun is trying to come out after some earlier heavyish showers.

I'd just like to know why it's so cold considering everything is coming from the southeast.

Edited June 5, 2011 by Michael Prys-Roberts

[anvilhead]

is that a cell gone up just south of Salisbury ?

Edit - sorry, I meant wset of ...

[Harry]

Plenty of showers in the Channel gaining in size and moving northwestwards so perhaps a shot later on. Meanwhile, the sun is trying to come out after some earlier heavyish showers.

I'd just like to know why it's so cold considering everything is coming from the southeast.

Doesnt feel overly cold here MPR - if anything slightly muggy albeit cooler than yesterday

[Neilsouth]

Doesnt feel overly cold here MPR - if anything slightly muggy albeit cooler than yesterday

Does here, feels like it's about 12c outside

[fromey]

is that a cell gone up just south of Salisbury ?

Edit - sorry, I meant wset of ...

some echo's beginning to show on the radar, it may develop more like the one did this morning.

heres hoping.

fromey.

[knocker]

METO Invent for 1600

[richep]

Rainfall seems to be getting heavier as it approaches the south coast. Wonder if it will give any thunder?

[chapmanslade]

Just checked the rain gauge - 55mm since last night (no I haven't missed the decimal point out !)

More rain just arrived but steady rather than the torrential of earlier

[fromey]

looking at rain today the echos get stronger the further inland they come.

fromey

[Stormyking]

Just hada heavy burst of rain, and still falling moderately now, feels very refreshing indeed

[Biggin]

Weather forecast on red button on BBC1 has the SE down for a fair few hours of thundery rain this evening and overnight.

[Phelpsy]

very heavy rain here atm

[Moisty]

The rain amount seems to be a bit misleading looking at the radar, we should be hving pretty moderate rain but it's barely been more than spits and not really wet the ground.

[Buckster76]

feels warm and humid down here in Essex

just come back from a 17k run and theres rain inthe air - but not a lot

[Andy Bown]

Just checked the rain gauge - 55mm since last night (no I haven't missed the decimal point out !)

Gee! 30mm in Warminster, 5 miles away! You must have copped downpours during the night too then?

Also, just read a post from earlier about it being too overcast for thunder, lol, that's like saying it's

too cold for snow!!

[littlemissy]

all storms missed us here in Wellington ,no rain either.In fact sun trying to peep through.Vry surprised as it was so muggy last night i was gardening until 10.30pm.

[richep]

We only had a short lived shower here in Bridgwater, more showers approaching though, so should see some more rain at some stage today