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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Not looking good tonight is it!, just like most of this year so far <_<

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

For those of you who don't get the delights of the NMM model from NW, here is the forecast for 11pm tonight.

post-4523-0-81077800-1307295187_thumb.pn

Coast should be happy.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

nmm isn't accurate nor is the nae, what happened to the rest of the rain currently across the south ? :p

And yes i know it's for tonight :)

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tara303 Newbie

tara303

Posted
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
  • Location: Templeglantine, west County Limerick, Ireland
Posted

will there be any lightning for sunbury in middx tonight does anybody reckon?? Wondering wether to have a nap and then check radar later....

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Cableguy Enthusiast

Cableguy

Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
Posted

will there be any lightning for sunbury in middx tonight does anybody reckon?? Wondering wether to have a nap and then check radar later....

doubt it

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littlemissy Rookie

littlemissy

Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset(term time ) Sudbury, Suffolk weekends and holidays hoping to make Suffolk permanent soon ) . .
  • Weather Preferences: thunder/lightning ,gales and warm sunny weather
  • Location: Taunton Somerset(term time ) Sudbury, Suffolk weekends and holidays hoping to make Suffolk permanent soon ) . .
Posted

just started raining here in Wellington ,no thunder or lightning.Too chilly I think.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

will there be any lightning for sunbury in middx tonight does anybody reckon?? Wondering wether to have a nap and then check radar later....

probably not - the forecast for your location is 27C with heavy snow starting at 11.54pm then thick fog for 23 days

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

I don't often call it but I think tonight is going to be a big bust. Oh well the Boss will be happy because i will be available for work tomorrow although it aint a huge problem as I can be as flexible as I like. blum.gif

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

probably not - the forecast for your location is 27C with heavy snow starting at 11.54pm then thick fog for 23 days

You forgot the meteor storm followed by supersized Coronal Mass Ejections from the Sun. And all over Middlesex.

Meanwhile, here in Solihull the weather is pretty dull, bland, nothing happening. In fact... It's really sh...

snagglepuss%2Bexit%2Bstage%2Bleft%25282%2529.jpg

Phil.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

I don't often call it but I think tonight is going to be a big bust. blum.gif

well i'd prefer that to rain any day! :D

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

The GFS target time is from 9pm to 3am with the best bang in the middle.

Here's the vertical movement of air in the atmosphere for that time:

post-5986-0-95341600-1307300582_thumb.gipost-5986-0-83945500-1307300577_thumb.gipost-5986-0-24179000-1307300571_thumb.gi

Here's the surface feature that makes up the trigger (look at the closeness of the lines over the south-east)

post-5986-0-37476500-1307300687_thumb.gi

Hence, the precip chart (which is woefully undoing it in my view for certain local areas that will get enhanced rainfall due to orographic lift)

post-5986-0-98913600-1307300755_thumb.gi

The NAE enhances the rainfall (looks more realistic to me, given the moisture about) but puts it further west:

post-5986-0-95027700-1307301218_thumb.gi

(you need big clouds to produce such rainfall)

It's still on the for the SE, but I fear for E Anglia.

No promises of thunder and lightning, but rain there will be, young Jedi.

Edited by Sparticle
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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

Oh there is no doubt about the rain but its a bust on thunder I fear! I don't fancy a 120/200+ mile round trip for just rain although I would consider it if I thought it would be biblical in quantity!

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vortex_liam Rookie

vortex_liam

Posted
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/stormy
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
Posted

today was a waste for me.

And Welcome my come back to SEVERE storms. Nothing will happen now im here

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Oh there is no doubt about the rain but its a bust on thunder I fear! I don't fancy a 120/200+ mile round trip for just rain although I would consider it if I thought it would be biblical in quantity!

Only an outside chance of biblical quality end of the world MCS I'm afraid. The only convective parameter going for it - a little bit - is the K-Index:

post-5986-0-73589700-1307301483_thumb.pn

.. which translates into moderate convective potential. Of interest is the shear between 800hPa and 700hPa - looks quite frantic.

Not worth the trip with odds of severe weather being so low. I still think some areas might see some CC lightning, but it seems that it will be infrequent and isolated.

Edited by Sparticle
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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

Where the hell did that come from. Lightning has just popped up around the IorW on Icelandic Sferic!

Anyone local can confirm this?

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Possibly with run-off collecting in the normal spots.

even then, very short lived, the ground is so dry it will soak it up rapidly

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

Ye of little faith ;)

LOL time will tell strikes on one sferic does not make a storm nothing showing up on Blids or IofW Sferics. At least thats not a 120 mile drive but a 20 mile drive!

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