Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

[Adi F]

I feel a Mick's berger coming on!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay so we might have a rumble or two nothing special..If it does kick of FANTASTIC!!! But I think the main thing the majority of the south want is rain!!! I drove past a lake the other week in south Surrey and it was nearly gone! I couldn't believe it!

One thing I have a question about...The rain is moving up from the south coast and will continue to..However..Why are the clouds including the higher clouds moving towards the south coast 0.o

[Harry]

won't be radar watching intothe night tonight

not convinced anythings goiing to happen

where are the developed storms on the Euro RADAR heading our way ?

Dont rule anything out...I too am not overly hopeful, but there is a lot of moisture about and with a disturbance forecast to kick some decent chunk of that moisture skyward, thunder and lightning cannot be ruled out IMO.

Thunderstorms appear to be gathering over N/NE France at the moment with the prevailing wind towards the UK, however I THINK a lot of the French storms are expected to move north towards Benelux...

Saw a prominant mackeral sky towards mid-high latitudes early streaming in from the ENE - signs there is some shear about and if anything did kick off, while not likely to be severe, could be organised enough to support thunderstorms.

Now with darkness falling, watch and wait (and hope) time

[tara303]

oh poo - never mind, 2 sleeps then 9 days off, hope for something while off work - glad me plants are getting watered!

[Harry]

Okay so we might have a rumble or two nothing special..If it does kick of FANTASTIC!!! But I think the main thing the majority of the south want is rain!!! I drove past a lake the other week in south Surrey and it was nearly gone! I couldn't believe it!

One thing I have a question about...The rain is moving up from the south coast and will continue to..However..Why are the clouds including the higher clouds moving towards the south coast 0.o

There's low pressure areas evolving and merging, driving winds round in different directions.

With upper level cloud moving southwards with more moist air moving from S/E direction, even for a relatively short amount of time, it gives decent opportunity for convection

Rain outside sounds as if its getting slightly heavier - clouds certainly resemble those you see with very moist conditions. Birds are also having a right old sing song, almost warning out to their mates to get back to the nest swiftly (I know, utter bo***cks )

Edited June 5, 2011 by Harry

[NO LONGER POSTING]

There's low pressure areas evolving and merging, driving winds round in different directions.

With upper level cloud moving southwards with more moist air moving from S/E direction, even for a relatively short amount of time, it gives decent opportunity for convection

Rain outside sounds as if its getting slightly heavier - clouds certainly resemble those you see with very moist conditions. Birds are also having a right old sing song, almost warning out to their mates to get back to the nest swiftly (I know, utter bo***cks )

Oh okay..and about the birds..That is actually very funny you say that..I have a lake at the end of my garden..and ALWAYS before a storm rain or snow there is one type of bird that is so loud! Like a warning to the rest..Maybe coincidence..I don't know..

[chionomaniac]

Harry, upper air is moving north to north eastwards, lower air is moving towards the south, south west.

Surrey do you have the netweather V4 radar? - as the 500hPa and 1000hPa wind vector overlays demonstrate this very well. It is the upper air direction that steers the direction of the precip.

Edited June 5, 2011 by chionomaniac

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Harry, upper air is moving north to north eastwards, lower air moving towards the south, south west.

Surrey do you have the netweather radar? - as the 500hPa and 1000hPa wind vector overlays demonstrate this very well.

No I don't I should really buy it..But I reckon something might happen..It's been raining all day..My mum was gardening init..LOL

[gottolovethisweather]

Birds are also having a right old sing song, almost warning out to their mates to get back to the nest swiftly (I know, utter bo***cks )

Harry, how do you know that, that is not the case. You could be onto something, or on.............something :wacko:

Of course, we know so little about nature and so little about the dynamics of the atmosphere and consequently Thunderstorms, IMO, that's why we're all into this Meteorological melarkey.

What I do know, I ain't waiting up any longer, night all and good luck.

Until next time!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited June 5, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Guest Kent-Weather]

Only an outside chance of biblical quality end of the world MCS I'm afraid. The only convective parameter going for it - a little bit - is the K-Index:

.. which translates into moderate convective potential. Of interest is the shear between 800hPa and 700hPa - looks quite frantic.

Not worth the trip with odds of severe weather being so low. I still think some areas might see some CC lightning, but it seems that it will be infrequent and isolated.

With such a saturated profile I'd be even less confident then the marginal embedded thunderstorms I would have put at best in my earlier thoughts. A rumble of thunder perhaps but relying on the K index alone is risky personally

[Harry]

Raining moderate to heavy now in Medway - the convection is beginning it seems and its only 9:30

Remember peak activity is not forecast for another 3+ hours yet...things are IMO heading in the right direction.

I would emphasise I am not expecting thunderstorms...but thunder and lightning is on the cards IMO...will have to wait and see!

As a side note, the birds have stopped calling out - hopefully they all got home safely

[camiscool]

convection is only starting to get going??? really

[DAVID SNOW]

Raining moderate to heavy now in Medway - the convection is beginning it seems and its only 9:30

Remember peak activity is not forecast for another 3+ hours yet...things are IMO heading in the right direction.

I would emphasise I am not expecting thunderstorms...but thunder and lightning is on the cards IMO...will have to wait and see!

As a side note, the birds have stopped calling out - hopefully they all got home safely

Home safe, and now all on Twitter

[Harry]

convection is only starting to get going??? really

Not really sure am appreciating the sarcastic tone in all honesty

I would hardly suggest today is been remotely convective up to now...lots of layered stratiform mess bringing little more than torrential drizzle. The rain now is now resembling something a bit more convective...if that's a little bit clearer

[Costa Del Fal]

Good luck to those in the SE... may your grass be green after this! :lol:

I think the risk is low and no more tonight for thundery weather. The proper ingredients just arent there really imo. An isolated risk but nothing significant. Just enjoy the rain!

[essex coast matt]

Thunderstorm over paris at mo, streaming webcam at earthcam.com, and type in eiffel tower, fair bit of lighting

[tinybill]

No I don't I should really buy it..But I reckon something might happen..It's been raining all day..My mum was gardening init..LOL

stll bone dry here here in ipswich not a drop t/shirts all day

[Phelpsy]

Thunderstorm over paris at mo, streaming webcam at earthcam.com, and type in eiffel tower, fair bit of lighting

Wow thanks for that, its great, looks quite electrified. im hooked lol!

[Jane Louise]

Good webcam I saw a couple lightning strikes and then the cam shut down Lol. It's currently unavaible to the public now .

[camiscool]

i cant view that webcam? im on a mac?

[Static Prevails]

Good webcam I saw a couple lightning strikes and then the cam shut down Lol. It's currently unavaible to the public now .

It did that to me at one point too, I just refreshed it and it came back for me.

If only we had a climate like France's...

Good luck all in the south tonight. Hope to read a few reports of some thunder in the morning.

[Phelpsy]

it done that to me Jane, click refresh on your page it should come back on, mines on now :0)

[Adi F]

A better one here

http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/europe/france/paris_panorama_streaming_webcam.html

[Jane Louise]

Ahhh yes, thanks guys it's working again. B) I did refresh a couple times before but nothing happened. But since refreshing again it's all working now.

Ooooh to be in Paris now! their climate is great for storms.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

stll bone dry here here in ipswich not a drop t/shirts all day

Someone in Norfolk agreeing with a Tractor boy, must be a first

Bone dry here as well despite the radar showing a shower passing directly overhead