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Major Hurricane Adrian


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Invest 91E has become the Eastern Pacific's first tropical depression of the 2011 season. Intensity is 25kts. 91E's LLC has been well defined over the last 36hrs, but has been lacking convection. Convection has increased modestly, but is still a bit patchy. Nevertheless, it's enough to warrant upgrading the system to tropical depression status.

01E is going to head on a typical northwest to west-northwesterly track over the next few days, but motion will be slow at first due to slack steering currents. This track will take 01E over the hottest waters of the basin (around 31C). Shear is forecast to remain low. With these environmental factors in mind, it's clear to see why NHC are forecasting 01E to become a hurricane prior to reaching cooler waters in about 4 days time. The track should keep 01E away from land though rainbands may brush the Mexican coast as the cyclone strengthens and passes nearby.

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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

A satellite image:

post-15004-0-40339500-1307474822_thumb.j

I do not like that E Pacific systems.They are sooo boring to watch...

I do not like when people die because of tropical storms but...

Discussion:

the well-defined low pressure system centered about 365 miles south of Acapulco Mexico has now developed sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression...the first of the 2011 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Satellite classifications are 2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB...respectively. Based on these data and an ascat pass around 0430 UTC...the initial intensity is set at 25 kt. The atmospheric and oceanic environments are quite favorable for intensification. The combination of vertical wind shear less than 10 kt and sea surface temperatures near 30 c should allow the depression to steadily strengthen for the next 3 to 4 days...which is unanimously shown by the intensity guidance models. The official forecast is closest to the SHIPS guidance and brings the depression to tropical storm strength within 24 hours and to a hurricane within 3 days. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler water by the end of the forecast period...which should result in weakening. The depression is currently in weak steering currents with a mid- to upper-level low to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level ridge to its northwest over northern Mexico. This pattern will likely cause a slow northwestward motion for the next 24 to 36 hours. Between 36 and 96 hours...a gradual Bend to the west-northwest is forecast as the ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. By day 5...the ridge is anticipated to weaken due to an approaching shortwave trough. The official track forecast is basically a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. The GFDL and HWRF models...which move the system northward for the next few days... appear unrealistic and are considered outliers at this time. Forecast positions and Max winds init 07/1500z 11.6n 100.0w 25 kt 30 mph 12h 08/0000z 11.9n 100.2w 30 kt 35 mph 24h 08/1200z 12.5n 100.5w 35 kt 40 mph 36h 09/0000z 13.2n 101.0w 45 kt 50 mph 48h 09/1200z 14.0n 101.9w 55 kt 65 mph 72h 10/1200z 15.1n 103.8w 70 kt 80 mph 96h 11/1200z 15.5n 105.5w 75 kt 85 mph 120h 12/1200z 16.5n 107.5w 65 kt 75 mph $$ forecaster cangialosi

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

01E has become tropical storm Adrian, with intensity rising to 40kts. Banding remains strong and convection is gradually filling in near the centre. Still looks on course to become a hurricane.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Adrian has further strengthened to 50kts. With the low shear and very warm sea temps, NHC have stated in their last advisory that the SHIPS model is indicating a 77% chance of a 40kt intensity gain in the next 24hrs. Could we see a major hurricane? Possibly.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Prior to it becoming Adrian.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite called TRMM has the ability to see rainfall rates and heights of thunderstorm clouds within a tropical cyclone, and data from the satellite confirmed a "hot tower" near the center of the first tropical depression of the eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.

A hot tower is a rain cloud that reaches at least to the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. It extends approximately nine miles (14.5 km) high in the tropics. These towers are called "hot" because they rise to such altitude due to the large amount of latent heat. Water vapor releases this latent heat as it condenses into liquid. They're also indicative of a lot of energy within a tropical depression. In the case of Tropical Depression 1E, some of the hot towers reached heights of 16 km (~9.9 miles).

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Adrian has become a 70kt, category 1 hurricane, and this intensity estimate "could be conservative" in the words of the NHC. A ragged eye has formed embedded in a newly formed central dense overcast feature. Adrian has clearly overcome the problem he has had so far with maintaining central convection, and this is the base for continued intensification in the low shear and over waters of about 29C. Adrian is expected to become a category 3 major hurricane within the next 24hrs before reaching cooler waters on the west-northwesterly inducing a weakening trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Adrian continues to quickly intensify, with intensity now at 80kts, expected to rise another 10kts in 12hrs, and a further 10kts in the 12hrs after bringing Adrian to cat 3 major hurricane status. Aside from a little dry air which isn't penetrating through the thick CDO, Adrian remains in a highly favourable environment for about another 36hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

And so it begins...

Seriously though, very happy that the season is underway and especially happy that the first system is a major hurricane.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Scrap 10kts in 12hrs, how about 20kts in 6hrs! Adrian has become a major category 3 hurricane with intensity sharply rising to 100kts. If this trend continues then Adrian has time to become a category 4 on the SS scale before reaching cooler waters and increasingly unfavourable upper level winds. Adrian's eye is quite large, but has cleared out nicely and become much better defined.

Image of the basin below from CIMSS. Adrian is on his own out there, somewhat indicative of the dry air in the basin at the moment. However, because Adrian's CDO is fairly solid and there is hardly any shear to drive the dry air into the core of the major hurricane, Adrian is largely uneffected.

irng9.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

A nice storm, I have to say though that maybe I am looking at a different storm to the NHC, this looks to be an 80-90kt max IMO, the CDO looks ragged and the eye not very stable so unable to sustain these kinds of pressure drops over this length of time....

Anyway rather irrelavent as we have no real way of knowing.

Still good to see an eye on a hurricane at last. !

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

random trivia

Last year Hurricane Celia was a major hurricane in June, therefore, this makes back-to-back Junes with major hurricanes. I went back to see the last time it happened and it was 1991-92, Hurricane Carlos (120 mph) and Hurricane Celia (145 mph).

Edited by cookie
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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

It won't surprise me if Adrian goes to Cat4.:D

Discussion

...Adrian becomes a major hurricane with 115 mph winds well off the Pacific coast of Mexico... summary of 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...14.2n 104.1w about 440 mi...710 km SSE of Cabo Corrientes Mexico maximum sustained winds...115 mph...185 km/h present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h minimum central pressure...960 mb...28.35 inches watches and warnings -------------------- summary of watches and warnings in effect... none. Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...the eye of major Hurricane Adrian was located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 104.1 west. Adrian is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next two days...keeping the hurricane away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185 km/h...with higher gusts. Adrian is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening could occur today or Friday...but a gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches. Hazards affecting land ---------------------- surf...swells generated by Adrian will continue to affect a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico today through at least early this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Next advisory ------------- next complete advisory...200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow, Thunderstorms & Summer Plumes
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk

It won't surprise me if Adrian goes to Cat4.:D

I thnk it probably is or least very close to it, take a look at the latest visible! And this is the 1st system in the E Pac isn't it?

vis.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

I thnk it probably is or least very close to it, take a look at the latest visible! And this is the 1st system in the E Pac isn't it?

It is indeed Chris. June hurricanes are more likely in the East Pacific than the Atlantic, and it seems Adrian formed in an ideal environment and position to become big. Shear is nice and low, and Adrian formed nearby the warmest waters of the basin which he has quite slowly tracked along. This interesting system has certainly made good use of it's location and environment. I would also certainly agree Adrian looks high end cat 3 looking at lastest imagery and I reckon winds will rise in the next update (they remain at 100kts for now). Cat 4 is looking increasingly likely IMO unless there is any immediate unforseen deterioration in the upper level environment.

Bit of useless trivia, but Adrian has become a hurricane the last four times it's name was used (including 2011). The last time it failed to do so was 1987. It also seems not all that uncommon that the 'A' storm becomes a hurricane, with this occuring in 2009, 2005, 2002, 2001, 2000 and 1999 recently. The 2001 storm, Adolph, became a cat 4 in May!

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Now officially a cat 4,

The NHC has issued an special advisory indicating that this system has continued to intensify and it's now a category 4 hurricane and winds reach 135 mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed Cookie, or 115kts. Considering Adrian had an intensity of 80kts this morning, the intensification is certainly very impressive. Also interesting to note is that the NHC are saying that Adrian is becoming annular. The banding around the hurricane is dissipating, and Adrian has a thick, circular ring of convection around a very well defined and clear eye. Annular hurricanes are known to survive longer in less favourable environments, so it'll be interesting to see how Adrian fares once he reaches cooler waters and stable air in the current path.

More about Annular hurricanes here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Adrian has strengthened a little more this morning, with intensity rising to 120kts. Adrian is an impressive annular hurricane. Some hurricanes show annular characteristics but few go on to become completely annular. Adrian looks pretty well there to me, with a large clear eye surrounded by a circular ring of convection. Adrian has probably peaked and should start to weaken, but as long as Adrian is annular, the weakening will be slow.

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Hello Chaps/chapesses?, always great to see Cookie & SS posts when the W Atlantic/E pacific season begins, (personal favorite sector due to locality and many family n friends in or around the west Atlantic/East pacific) and little doubt that its favourable for a busy year?

Mighty impressive kick off with Adrian (great pic indeed cookie, bettering the NASA 8am 10Jun local time) shot)

Born from possible couple of degrees above normal recent sea temps in the area methinks?

But now cat1 rapid weakening and "usual suspects" wind shear leaving Adrian in his death hallows.

Really interested to see what/if any effect the "soon-to-be-ending"? record La Nina has on suggested projected Hurricanes no.s?

(the recent snow in Hawaii and yesterdays falls up Snowdon in Wales are a different topic although thought provoking?)

Edited by mezzacyclone
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Posted
  • Location: in Croatia
  • Location: in Croatia

Whaat mezzacyclone?

Back on topic.

Adrian is now a pathetic 45 mph tropical storm(a low level cloud swirl) and it will dissipate soon.

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