Chase 2011 - Day 43 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Well it had to happen and Saturday June 11th will be the final day of chasing for Netweather for the 2011 Tornado Season, Will be back out here in 9 weeks though for Arizona provided it is not all burnt down by then

So we need a bit of luck on our side from our starting point in Dodge City (Kansas) and hope something breaks out in SW Or Western Oklahoma so we can chase it and then lug it back to DFW For the early departures on Sunday Morning. If as it looks likely the bigger risk will be in Western Kansas and SW Nebraska then we are out of the game as the distances involved are just not possible.

Wish us all luck in what has been a challenging and strange season in the last 6 weeks

[Stu Robinson]

Hi Paul, My time is also up - but I was able to extend my trip for another 24 hours so that I can chase the pattern over East colorado tomorrow - my wife wont be happy when I tell her!

[Dorsetbred]

And now the end is near

And so we face the final chase

My friends I'll say it clear

I'ts time to head back to base

We lived a tour that's full

And traveled each and every highway

And more, much more than this

We did it the Sherminator way

Regrets I've had a few

But then again too few too many cells to mention

I did what I had to do

And saw it through without exemption

I planned each charted chase

Each careful mile along the byway

And more, much more than this

We did it the Sherminator way

Yes there were times I'm sure you knew

When I bit off more than I could chew

But through it all when there was doubt

That the storm would peter out

And I stood tall and did it the Sherminator way

We loved what we viewed

We had our fill, and share of losing

And now as tears subside

We find it all so confusing

This season without doubt

Has been the one to cast the clout

To think I did all that

And may I say not in a shy way

Oh no, oh no, not me

We did the it the Sherminator way

For what is a man what has he got

If not his team then he has not

To say the things he truly feels

And not the words of those in the fields

The record shows I took the blows & the hail

And did it the SHERMINATOR way

Yes it was my way

(Cored and hail punched original Frank Sinatra)

[grab my graupel]

And now the end is near

And so we face the final chase

:lol: I like it

[D-J-V]

Ah cant believe its all over for another year!!!

Its been emotional, enjiy the last chase guys!

[Nick F]

Good luck on your last chase day guys. Although eastern Colorado and western Kansas looks the best spot for tornadoes today, NAM indicates some storms firing across western and central Oklahoma too ahead/along warm front lifting north out of SW OK and Texas and you never know, might get lucky and catch a nado away from the crowd.

[duckeyh]

Good Luck on the last chase If its any consolation we've had some great skies round our way and even the occasional storm

[Tom Lynch]

Erm the last day . So sad really. Where to go ?

At this moment in time Weathertap 12 hour surface analysis shows at 18Z a warm front on the northern Oklahoma, top north east corner across the state hitting the Texas border near Shamrock. there is a surface low west of Amarillo with a dryline trailing down along the Texas/New Mexico border.

Moving onto the 24 hours analysis valid for 0600Z Sunday 12 June shows the warm front running parallel to the Okie/Kansas border level with the Missouri border on the east and just north of Woodward on the west. It shows the surface low moving just to the north of Amarillo. There is a dry line running down through Amarillo to the west of Plainview.

As mentioned NAM shows eastern and south eastern Colorado 8pm EDT i.e. 6pm Mountain time on simulated composite reflectivity. It then forecasts it to move into western Kansas i.e. Ulysses & Colby & sw NE with an MCS running through central Kansas west to east.

At 5pm EDT it also shows a possibilty sw Woodward down to the Altus/Lawton area. Which at 8pm EDT is shown north to south almost I guess I35 Kansas border down to Ardmore. Unlike the cells in Kansas the stuff in Oklahoma seems to be short lived i.e. gone by 11pm EDT. SO!!!

Surface winds in central Oklahoma at 8pm EDT mainly from the south east dew points mid 50s At 5pm EDT CAPE seems to be 1500/1750 western Kansan/east Colorado and an area around woodward.

CAPE values look better eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas but i guess that is not on for today.

Crucially important today is the driving time to DFW and roughly measured that could be 8.5 hours from Ulysses, Kansas to DFW 510 miles. Hence there will have be a cut off point. I do not know what time the team have to be at DFW.

I have got a clue what SPC outlook is for today but I guess Paul will be up bright and early to ensure that he can get the team into the best possible target area.

Good luck on your last chase day guys. Although eastern Colorado and western Kansas looks the best spot for tornadoes today, NAM indicates some storms firing across western and central Oklahoma too ahead/along warm front lifting north out of SW OK and Texas and you never know, might get lucky and catch a nado away from the crowd.

Hi Nick

it took me nearly an hour to type my message and I cut have cut out all cr?p and said what you said in a lot less time

But i enjoyed doing it

Tom

[johnholmes]

:lol: I like it

yes, me too, Net Wx have a poet or alternative song writer!

[Arron]

Heading to Liberal, KS for lunch

[Arron]

Heading towards a cell just North of Buffalo, OK

[John Hanrahan]

Yeah thats fine

[ian cameron]

well another year gone hope the last days chasing is going well have enjoyed following from this side of the pond its not the same as being out there but it will have to do hope you all have a sfe and swift journey home

[Arron]

That's us all done for this year, great chase to end the season for us and we've got some awesome lightning and structure shots! Making our way to Yukon and then an early start tomorrow to get to Dallas