Glastonbury (Gfs Update 12Th June)

[J10]

06Hz

A transient ridge pushes up from the South west late Monday, early Tuesday (13th/14th), westerly winds then set in until around Thursday/Friday when low pressure starts to edge in from the west. Remaining rather unsettled with a ridge of High Pressure edging up from the South west around the Thursday (23rd), it remains mostly settled but High Pressure slowly edges away to the east, with low pressure edging back in from the west by the Sunday. Some showers possible on the Wednesday, becoming mostly dry for Friday to Saturday, with more showers developing on Sunday.

850Hpa around 3-4c to start rising slowly, and reaching 13c over the weekend. Max Temps around 15c for the first 3 days, but rising to around 20 to 22c for the weekend. *

12Hz

A transient ridge pushes up from the South west late Monday, early Tuesday (13th/14th), but low pressure soon edges back in from the west by the Wednesday. Low Pressure then remains until the start of the Glastonbury festival, varying between low pressure over the UK, and the low pressure centered to the NW of the UK, with westerly winds over the UK. A ridge of High Pressure pushing up from the South West on the Wednesday. However this is nudged out of the way, with low pressure for the rest of the festival. So showery at worst on the Wednesday and Thursday, more general rain early Friday, showery again on Saturday, with more general rain on the Sunday. 850Hpa around 2-3c for Wednesday and Thursday, up to 10-11c on Friday and Saturday, before cooling back down on the Sunday. Max Temps 15c for Wednesday to Friday, closer to 16-19c for the weekend. *

ECM 06Hz

Rather unsettled generally to the North West, but higher pressure (1016mb) to the South West. But this only goes to the Wednesday.

Ensembles

06Hz :- 850Hpa around 5c in general, Pressure starts around 1015mb, up to 1020mb for Thursday to Saturday, back to 1018mb for the Sunday. Some ensembles go for some rain on the Wednesday but largely dry after that. The operational run is a dry and high pressure outlier, but the ensembles as a whole are improving.

12Hz :- 850Hpa around 5c in general but slowly rising to 7c, pressure starts at around 1018mb rising to 1020mb then falling back to 1018mb. Some of the ensembles go for moderate rain, but not extremely heavy. The 12Hz run is largely similar to the ensembles.

Summary

Ensembles do seem to be indicating rising pressure at the start of the festival, and the runs that are unsettled, look damp rather than wet, so on today's runs 5, with no indication either way of a wet or dry festival.

Overall though there is still a slight indications of a damp festival, so I will stay at a 6 on the scale of 0= dust bowl, 10= washout.

However, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic at the moment.

[PompeyFC]

Jackone, I note that you post charts relating to Wiltshire but pilton (glastonbury) is actually in Somerset? Not that it will make that much difference