Glastonbury (Gfs Update 14Th June)

[J10]

After recent improvements in the outlook, will this be continued and improved upon in today's runs, or will there be a setback.

06Hz

After today's ridge moves out of the way it looks rather unsettled until the start of next week, most of the rain will come from showers but some heavy rain on Friday. Low Pressure to start next week giving showers, by Wednesday the low pressure should have moved to the east of the UK, feeding in cool Northerly winds and some showers for most areas. By Thursday High pressure starting to edge in from the west but still with some showers over the UK with Glastonbury missing most of these on both days. A ridge of High Pressure pushing over the UK for Friday and Saturday with only light showers possible. Sunday sees at Atlantic low trying to edge in from the west, so some late rain for Glastonbury. 850Hpa temps around 3-4c, rising to 8c on Sunday, Temps around 14-15c, but rising to 17c for the weekend.

12Hz

After today's ridge moves out of the way it looks rather unsettled until the start of next week, but more showers than periods of heavy rain. the start of the festival looks rather unsettled with low pressure over the UK giving some showery rain for the Wednesday. The low pressure fizzling out a bit on the Thursday, but still rather showery. Friday sees a very weak ridge for SW parts of the UK keeping Glastonbury dry with frontal rain looking threatening for Northern UK and heavy thundery showers fringing SE England from France. the rain pushes across Northern areas over the weekend, but the ridge of higher pressure over southern areas keeping it mostly dry. 850HPa temps around 8-9 to start and end the festival, around 5-6c for Friday. Temps around 15-18c generally.

ECM

06Hz - Similar to the GFS in keeping largely low pressure around until next week. However it develops a low pressure system more as it approaches from the SW, and this tends to linger over the UK until the Friday. So quite an unsettled start to the festival.

12Hz - Quite similar to the 06HZ run, perhaps moving the low a bit further north, but this does mean the chance of some showers for many parts.

Ensembles

06Hz to start, 850Hpa around 3-5c in line with the operational run, pressure around 1015mb, with the operational run a slight high pressure outlier. Some of the ensembles go for some showery rain at times, especially at the start of the festival.

12Hz to start, 850Hpa around 3-5c in line with the operational run, a complete warm outlier for a good part of the festival. Pressure rising from around 1015mb at the start of the festival, to close to 2120mb by Friday, and returning back to 1017mb by the Sunday, the operational run a alight low pressure outlier for the middle of the festival. The ensembles are largely dry, but some showers at times.

So all in all, decent ensembles but not as encouraging as yesterday.

Summary

A bit of a mixed bag today, looking less settled for the festival, but the GFS and GEFS seems to keep Glastonbury largely dry although a few showers are possible to start the festival. ECM 06Hz a bit unsettled with low pressure over the UK for the start of the festival, and only slowly moving it away to the east. The ECM 12Hz will be the deciding factor for me tonight. Unfortunately it has gone with the ECM 06Hz, so despite the GFS op runs and ensembles largely going for dry weather, after the Wednesday, the threat of low pressure from the ECM mean a 6 on a scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=mudbath.