Mini Ice Age On The Way?

[Paul]

Spotted this and thought it may provoke some interesting discussion!

Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade • The Register

http://bit.ly/kBk2vX

[Gavin P]

The news from the US scientists is very concerning, though I believe the Russians were warning this was going to happen 20 years ago, so it shouldn't come as that big a surprise.

Nevertheless, if these scientists are right and the solar cycle is going to switch off for a few decades, we could be in for a very chilly time of it - Even assuming we don't plumb the depths of the LIA thanks to the warming AGW has given us, that could still leave us potentially facing a Victorian type climate, which would be pretty devastating to our modern way of life.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Well given the UK is on the same latitude as Siberia, Kamchatka, Alaska, its about given were only living on 'borrowed time' anyway. Remember humans are only natures observers and we can't control the climate or the solar output (as much as we'd like to think so.) Time to watch the mass outflow from the UK while the hardiest of souls remain in the country, some snow boots, thicker arctic coats and gear, the mindset and we'll be alright through this. The Inuits have been doing so for thousands of year afterall.

[SP1986]

Nice topic for conversation but if we know one thing.. it's that man knows absolutely nothing about forecasting ice ages (simply because we haven't had to deal with one before).

I don't buy into it until I see it, there are so many variables - what if, for example, Solar Cycle 25 is extremely late in coming into maximum?

So yes a cooler period is due, but a mini ice age is perhaps a little OTT given the global temperature profile across the globe recently. Certainly however localised cooling periods are very possible?

[SteveB]

Interesting indeed, the Sun has been going through a low period of activity over the last 4-5wks since it high point in March.

Un-official figures have had us at 4 spotless days, although that has come to an end today. 4 spotless days may not sound anything special when only a 2yrs ago we had 20-30 days spotless in a row. However, the Sun is spupposed to be in full ramp up, with continuous spots and high solar flux.

Currently there is only a few spots on the surface, simple plagues, and the solar flux has only recovered today to 99, froma low of 85.

[Kiwi]

Interesting ...and seems to be being picked up by quite a few in the press. I can't wait for the Express headlines!

Some however believe that even if we are heading towards a Grand Minimum it will not trigger colder weather. Can't see how it could fail to have an impact myself??

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/06/110614-sun-hibernation-solar-cycle-sunspots-space-science/

[Ja23]

Maybe this is good with global warming and a mini ice age at the same time cancel each other out and we get average weather.

[Polar Maritime]

Wasn't a so called "WeatherGeek" ranting about this last year? http://globalcooling...011-update.html

[Kentish Kiwi]

Thought this comment was an interesting counter argument to those suggesting global warming may cancel out any effects from a grand solar minimum:

""With what's happening in current times—we've added considerable amounts of carbon dioxide and methane and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere,"

What adds more amount of CO2, Methane, and "Green House Gases"?

Does this guy know that volcanic ativity since the Earth has been around is responsible for the gases that make up the atmosphere not humans. One medium grade volcanic explosion is more disruptive to all human contributions times 4."

The topic does make for quite exciting reading it must be said.

[Polar Maritime]

Just found this more up to date link from the Weathergeeks website, a very interesting read.

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

[bobbydog]

Thought this comment was an interesting counter argument to those suggesting global warming may cancel out any effects from a grand solar minimum:

""With what's happening in current times—we've added considerable amounts of carbon dioxide and methane and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere,"

What adds more amount of CO2, Methane, and "Green House Gases"?

Does this guy know that volcanic ativity since the Earth has been around is responsible for the gases that make up the atmosphere not humans. One medium grade volcanic explosion is more disruptive to all human contributions times 4."

The topic does make for quite exciting reading it must be said.

plus, volcanoes throw out tons of sulphur dioxide, which has a cooling effect on the climate. could a few more decent sized eruptions, combined with low solar activity, kick-start a cooling trend to the climate?

[VillagePlank]

From my own analysis, here, this is all rather expected.

Not quite back to frost-fairs on the Thames, and not enough to halt the increasing trend, but defo a steep drop back to CET temperature similar to 1950's and 1980's

[snowlover2009]

Am I right with this:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FBNZpA7QWms/TeWOWHq4JWI/AAAAAAAAAN4/NYPG-IgjDOM/s1600/newsun.png

Both pictures are solar maximum periods?

If so, then it explains the massive concern. :o A very weak solar maximum on the right and thing is, anyone would guess the picture on the right is a solar minimum period.

When do we expect current solar maximum to peak? Is this the current solar maximum, expected to actually happen or is it the next cycle they are talking about? Incidentally it is concerning, if they call the picture on the right a solar maximum...

[feb1991blizzard]

Stunning news although i am very sceptical, as indeed i am about man made climate change, what i would like to here from more knowledgable people is would be be more prone to severe winters if this happened and on what timescale could it happen, and has it already started given the last few cool summers and cold winters?

[Iceberg]

Well the CET isn't a very good indicator of ice ages for starters. I've been hearing about the onset of cooling for quite some time (15 years or so) but as yet not seen any evidence of this.

Interesting but perhaps to be filed into the lets wait and see, or why is the evidence different to this prediction compared to the other 100 predictions out on the Web concerning the onset of an iceage that have not materialised..

[jimbo36]

Guess now would be a good time to sell my shares in Ambre Solaire then? or is PM ramping up the next snowboarding season!!

[cheeky_monkey]

that could still leave us potentially facing a Victorian type climate, which would be pretty devastating to our modern way of life.

really?..how exactly would it be devasting to our modern way of life

[SP1986]

Well the CET isn't a very good indicator of ice ages for starters. I've been hearing about the onset of cooling for quite some time (15 years or so) but as yet not seen any evidence of this.

Interesting but perhaps to be filed into the lets wait and see, or why is the evidence different to this prediction compared to the other 100 predictions out on the Web concerning the onset of an iceage that have not materialised..

Indeed, it's certainly interesting, but doesn't add up when you consider we are currently in a run of some of the warmest global years on record. Certainly not sure we should worry about this for many year if it is true. The scenario painted in the article if it were to occur on a global scale would be devastating. However I get the feeling any change will be regional (fortuntely/unfortunately, however anyones sees it), for NW Europe.

[SteveB]

Daily Mail are already on it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2003824/Earth-facing-mini-Ice-Age-years-rare-drop-sunspot-activity.html

[PersianPaladin]

LOS ANGELES: The next 11-year cycle of increased sunspot activity, scheduled to begin about 2020, may be delayed and have a reduced magnitude - or it may not occur at all, researchers said.

Three different lines of evidence suggest that the sun, which is expected to reach its maximum sunspot and magnetic activity in the current cycle in 2013, might even be entering a prolonged quiet period similar to the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 in which virtually no sunspots were observed.

That minimum coincided with the ''Little Ice Age'', in which temperatures were unusually low in Europe and elsewhere around the globe, and some researchers suggest that the two events were cause and effect - although evidence of that linkage is extremely limited.

Other than any potential climatic impact, the effects of reduced sunspots would have little direct impact on humans. Most of the terrestrial effects linked to sunspot activity - including interference with telecommunications, adverse effects on power transmission, reduced lifetimes of satellites and other problems - occur when sunspot activity increases.

http://www.smh.com.a...0615-1g417.html

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110614/ts_afp/usspacesun

Just hype?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Locking this - what sort of moron started a thre......ah right. I'll leave it.

[Nick L]

really?..how exactly would it be devasting to our modern way of life

Do you not remember December?! Absolute chaos caused.

[Summer Sun]

Remember we were told by someone in America a few weeks back the world was going to end and here we are still, now the yanks are saying we might be heading into a mini Ice Age, load of rubbish as far as i'm concerned

[PersianPaladin]

Remember we were told by someone in America a few weeks back the world was going to end and here we are still, now the yanks are saying we might be heading into a mini Ice Age, load of rubbish as far as i'm concerned

It looks like sensationalist hype, I agree.

[bobbydog]

Remember we were told by someone in America a few weeks back the world was going to end and here we are still, now the yanks are saying we might be heading into a mini Ice Age, load of rubbish as far as i'm concerned

i'm not sure you can compare the opinion of some religious nutter to the opinions of scientists who have based their theories on facts (i'm not saying they are right but its still a scientific theory)