Mini Ice Age On The Way?

[andymusic]

"Other than any potential climatic impact, the effects of reduced sunspots would have little direct impact on humans. Most of the terrestrial effects linked to sunspot activity - including interference with telecommunications, adverse effects on power transmission, reduced lifetimes of satellites and other problems - occur when sunspot activity increases."

Of course it would have an effect on humans - I hope we all remember the two ends of 2010 Jan & Dec - were very severe months causing hardship/accidents/deaths even due to the cold and severe snowy weather. If this continues and lasts for longer, yes the impact on humans will be even greater and more severe. Preperations should be made. Joe laminate floori has been harping on about low sunspot activity for sometime now and it looks like the scientists have some further data now to back up his findings. All should get prepared for another harsh winter I would say. The cost of fuel to get through an elongated winter will cripple some too. So these kind of warnings need to be heeded. Surely we have all seen the last 3 - 4 winters become more of a problem and so this pattern looks like it will continue and get worse.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

Edited June 15, 2011 by andymusic

[PersianPaladin]

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110614/ts_afp/usspacesun

The bit I've highlighted in bold is worth noting. I'm somewhat skeptical about the predictions and some of the claims about strongly-cooling climatic impacts, especially when there is a POSSIBILITY of a return to stronger maxima in Cycle 25 - which could start in 2021.

A 70 year period of the "mini Ice-Age" may have been correllated, but correllation does not neccessarily equate to causation.

[SP1986]

Isn't this theory of the solar minimum actually going against what the majority of scientists theorize?

[cheeky_monkey]

Do you not remember December?! Absolute chaos caused.

i live in Canada where winters are much colder than back home...people dont notice the cold or the snow..it becomes the norm and live goes on as before...people quickly adapt, it honestly makes no difference to the way you function or live your life

[bobbydog]

Isn't this theory of the solar minimum actually going against what the majority of scientists theorize?

it was but apparently they are coming round to the idea that it might be right

[andymusic]

i live in Canada where winters are much colder than back home...people dont notice the cold or the snow..it becomes the norm and live goes on as before...people quickly adapt, it honestly makes no difference to the way you function or live your life

well that's Canada - it seems that the UK have an inability to cope and the whole infrastructure - airlines, roads, and a whole host of other problems occur - maybe countries like Canada will need to educate countries like the UK into coping with such conditions. 4 x 4s, snow blowers etc etc etc

[jethro]

Remember we were told by someone in America a few weeks back the world was going to end and here we are still, now the yanks are saying we might be heading into a mini Ice Age, load of rubbish as far as i'm concerned

That was one individual, this is an emerging scientific consensus. The original, non hyped version is here: http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-solar-activity-solar-cycle.html

[cheeky_monkey]

well that's Canada - it seems that the UK have an inability to cope and the whole infrastructure - airlines, roads, and a whole host of other problems occur - maybe countries like Canada will need to educate countries like the UK into coping with such conditions. 4 x 4s, snow blowers etc etc etc

really its non issue as far as im concerend..i dont know why people get their knickers in a twist about the whole chaos theory.

[TonyH]

Doubtful unless we are talking within a few thousand years.

[Anti Boring Weather]

nah we wont get a cold winter again this year, there will be too many shortwaves getting in the way

[The PIT]

I posted earlier but it got deleted.

Fairly old news been posted on here at some time in the past http://www.solarham.com/

It will give us time to study the solar min and it's possible effects on climate. As for Hathaway well his attempts at predicting this cycle have been embarrassing to say the least. He may finally get it right.

[andymusic]

I posted earlier but it got deleted.

Fairly old news been posted on here at some time in the past http://www.solarham.com/

It will give us time to study the solar min and it's possible effects on climate. As for Hathaway well his attempts at predicting this cycle have been embarrassing to say the least. He may finally get it right.

How is a scientific paper published on June 14th - OLD NEWS exactly!!!!!

[jethro]

Doubtful unless we are talking within a few thousand years.

You're talking about a full blown ice age, a completely different thing to the proposed mini ice age. What is expected by increasingly large numbers of scientists is a new climatic period, possibly similar to the Maunder Minimum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

[Iceberg]

This statement sums it up for me.

""Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all," Altrock said. "If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions. … No one knows what the sun will do in that case.""

Let alone what impact it might or might not have on climate, or what impact it might or might not have on the CET.

[jethro]

This statement sums it up for me.

""Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all," Altrock said. "If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions. … No one knows what the sun will do in that case.""

Let alone what impact it might or might not have on climate, or what impact it might or might not have on the CET.

I agree that no one knows what the Sun will do until it does it but we have comprehensive records on the last deep Solar minimum (Dalton) and the impact it had upon climate, particularly NW Europe. We also have a pretty good idea of the impact upon climate from previous deep minimums like the Maunder.

Here's a good site for referencing historic weather: http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

Wikipedia has details of the dates of previous deep minima periods.

[vortex_liam]

Maybe this is good with global warming and a mini ice age at the same time cancel each other out and we get average weather.

that's a great point with a bad side with it.

I wish it was that simple.

Mini ice age will freeze the northern waters.

Then as it dies down (may not be for several years) we will be in the same position.

Although ALOT worse as Ice expands water.

In a 1000 year's time they could be looking back at map's of what the country's looked like before the big ocean eats more land.

[TonyH]

You're talking about a full blown ice age, a completely different thing to the proposed mini ice age. What is expected by increasingly large numbers of scientists is a new climatic period, possibly similar to the Maunder Minimum.

http://en.wikipedia....Maunder_Minimum

No I'm not, I'm talking about a 'mini' ice age akin to the LIA, which I believe will be much less likely given AGW ,but still possible within a time scale of a few thousand years, i.e. possibly within hundreds.

[cheeky_monkey]

that's a great point with a bad side with it.

I wish it was that simple.

Mini ice age will freeze the northern waters.

Then as it dies down (may not be for several years) we will be in the same position.

Although ALOT worse as Ice expands water.

In a 1000 year's time they could be looking back at map's of what the country's looked like before the big ocean eats more land.

huh

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So yes a cooler period is due, but a mini ice age is perhaps a little OTT given the global temperature profile across the globe recently. Certainly however localised cooling periods are very possible?

Global temps can drop away fairly quickly as proven by recent La Nina events so I'm not so sure its OTT.

Landscheidt's theory for one forecast a grand minima during the 21st century with an 'at least' Dalton type minima so this forecast is of no surprise.

Already research is showing that recent estimates of Solar activity on global temps have been underestimated thus for me it is concerning that the activity of the sun is following these predictions of further reduced activity.

I say we are in for a bumpy and progressively colder period....it doesn't mean perma frost etc but the effects could be very very noticeable.

BFTP

This statement sums it up for me.

""Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all," Altrock said. "If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions. … No one knows what the sun will do in that case.""

Let alone what impact it might or might not have on climate, or what impact it might or might not have on the CET.

But it is behaving far more 'towards' those that have advocated a deep solar minima period. It is good that this is being discussed as it may become important....and pretty soon too.

BFTP

[Red Raven]

that's a great point with a bad side with it.

I wish it was that simple.

Mini ice age will freeze the northern waters.

Then as it dies down (may not be for several years) we will be in the same position.

Although ALOT worse as Ice expands water.

In a 1000 year's time they could be looking back at map's of what the country's looked like before the big ocean eats more land.

Are you sure?

Water doesn't expand as such when it freezes, it becomes less dense so floats and displaces the same amount of volume be it frozen or not.

During the previous major ice ages land masses were larger because sea levels where lower. During the last ice age the north sea was land and thats where most of our predecessors lived.

[Iceberg]

Maybe they are right, can I just see a couple of years of lower temps though before I hold my breath or even a year that doesnt give near record low ice levels for the northern hemisphere..Let alone enough cold or ice for a mini ice age.

[cyclonic happiness]

Are you sure?

Water doesn't expand as such when it freezes, it becomes less dense so floats and displaces the same amount of volume be it frozen or not.

During the previous major ice ages land masses were larger because sea levels where lower. During the last ice age the north sea was land and thats where most of our predecessors lived.

That was because alot of the earth's water was locked up on ice sheets that were on the land.

[toggerob]

This all stems from a NASA/AAT online webstream that was off-limits to the public, and I think the interpretation of the news coverage coming out of this is that they are attributing the low solar output with the declination in expected CET variables due to these anomalies. Much like the confusion with the Icelandic Volcanologists and the msm misinterpreting a report saying a eruption of Katla was imminent I think the papers are looking at this data and drawing up their own conclusions from this AAT meeting without even talking to a climatologist for reference.

Basically its all hype over a newspapers guessing game as usual.

[Summer Sun]

This all stems from a NASA/AAT online webstream that was off-limits to the public, and I think the interpretation of the news coverage coming out of this is that they are attributing the low solar output with the declination in expected CET variables due to these anomalies. Much like the confusion with the Icelandic Volcanologists and the msm misinterpreting a report saying a eruption of Katla was imminent I think the papers are looking at this data and drawing up their own conclusions from this AAT meeting without even talking to a climatologist for reference.

Basically its all hype over a newspapers guessing game as usual.

I can't wait to see what the Dail Express come up with, apart from an over hyped story.

[Met4Cast]

That was because alot of the earth's water was locked up on ice sheets that were on the land.

Floating ice has no affect on sea level. If the ice was floating on water, and then melted, sea levels would stay exactly the same. When you have a glass of water with ice cubes on a hot, sunny day. As the ice melts, does the water level rise in the glass? It's the same principle, albeit on a very large scale.