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Mini Ice Age On The Way?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

That might be the case for some parts of the world. However the greatest effect of cooling would occur in NW Europe for the simple reason our climate should be much colder due to our latitude. The winters during 1645-1715 consisted of frequent episodes of blocking resulting in frequent E,ly winds.

Personally im convinced the low sunspot activity is having an effect on our climate and its one of the reasons why our recent summers/winters have been cooler compared to recent years. Now the combination of recent volcanic eruptions, weakening gulf stream, low sunspot activity will mean this coming winter will be even colder. Infact part of me is actually dreading this coming winter!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

That might be the case for some parts of the world. However the greatest effect of cooling would occur in NW Europe for the simple reason our climate should be much colder due to our latitude. The winters during 1645-1715 consisted of frequent episodes of blocking resulting in frequent E,ly winds.

Personally im convinced the low sunspot activity is having an effect on our climate and its one of the reasons why our recent summers/winters have been cooler compared to recent years. Now the combination of recent volcanic eruptions, weakening gulf stream, low sunspot activity will mean this coming winter will be even colder. Infact part of me is actually dreading this coming winter!!

I tend to agree with you Dave. There are a number of factors coming together for this winter that could make it a harsh one throughout the winter - not just December as winter gone past. As a snow lover I am really looking forward to watching the jigsaw pieces come together come this autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

what worries me is the current solar cycle is supposed to be maximum, but it could be regarded as a solar minimum with the amounts of spots. I don't think experts expect it to get any better, so I can see coming summers and winters just deteoriating. I am looking forward to Autumn as that is the time people start to debate winter, role on autumn, much more interest than the summer we are having.

I am no expert, but I agree with eye in the sky, the sun spots and solar cycles are effecting out weather and I think this is only things to come, it must be sun spots, as the decline of the sun spots in recent year has meant colder winters or winter months, 4 dire summers, this one ATM may join it. If a new maunder minimum or very low sun spots was to effect our weather, then the weather over the last years would be what we expect to keep happening and worsen.

It also worried me that there is more factors than just sun spots have could have an effect on our climate, particularly in summer and winterm e.g. look at electric snow storm post above.

Edited by snowlover2009
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Its not just sun-spot activity that may be affecting our climate. Stratospheric warming tends to play a vital role in promoting colder conditions across Europe, not always (see Feb/March 2009) but as has already been pointed out in the previous article, one of the coldest winters the winter after was one of the warmest in the 350 year CET record. So although low sunspot activity may attribute to colder winters there are multiple factors that will deter the onset on cold weather.

Ironically, if the research is true and we are indeed affected by the sun, we should count ourselves quite lucky as the tilting of the jet stream is helping North West Europe in particular to experience colder winters, on the upside, cooler, wetter summers.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Even if we do enter a prolonged period of very low sunspot activity, cold winters are not guaranteed. The Maunder Minimum was 1645-1715, looking through this site shows how variable those winters were: http://www.booty.org...e/1650_1699.htm

For instance, the winter of 1683/84 was severe and the coldest in the CET record and yet only a couple of years later (1685/86) was one of the warmest winters in the CET record, another couple of years later (1688/89) and the winter was severe yet again.

What seems to stand out from the records is that weather was dramatic; if it was wet, it was very wet, the cold was very cold and the dry was very dry.

May 1698 sounds grim:

May, 1698 was the coldest May in the CET series (also for large parts of west/central Europe). The mean temperature for the month was 8.5 degC, almost 3 degC below the 1961-90 mean, and barely above the normal for April. The spring of 1698 followed a severe winter, and even in the 'Little Ice Age' was reputed to be the most backward for almost 50 years.

Contemporary accounts spoke of frequent heavy frosts, snow and hail throughout the spring, with a "great deep snow all over England" on 13th May(NS). [ Some sources have this as the 3rd May(OSP) ]

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Even if we do enter a prolonged period of very low sunspot activity, cold winters are not guaranteed. The Maunder Minimum was 1645-1715, looking through this site shows how variable those winters were: http://www.booty.org...e/1650_1699.htm

For instance, the winter of 1683/84 was severe and the coldest in the CET record and yet only a couple of years later (1685/86) was one of the warmest winters in the CET record, another couple of years later (1688/89) and the winter was severe yet again.

What seems to stand out from the records is that weather was dramatic; if it was wet, it was very wet, the cold was very cold and the dry was very dry.

May 1698 sounds grim:

May, 1698 was the coldest May in the CET series (also for large parts of west/central Europe). The mean temperature for the month was 8.5 degC, almost 3 degC below the 1961-90 mean, and barely above the normal for April. The spring of 1698 followed a severe winter, and even in the 'Little Ice Age' was reputed to be the most backward for almost 50 years.

Contemporary accounts spoke of frequent heavy frosts, snow and hail throughout the spring, with a "great deep snow all over England" on 13th May(NS). [ Some sources have this as the 3rd May(OSP) ]

You've hit the nail on the head there, Jethro (although I'd have to disagree about May 1698 being 'grim'. Right up my street that one! )

Although the mean temperature in all seasons during the Maunder minimum was lower than it is now it was the great variability of the weather from month to month or season to season which stands out.

I commented on this in a long lost thread, perhaps a couple of years or more ago, to the effect that the climate had become more homogenous in recent decades compared to that in the 17th and 18th centuries. It's only recently that we've begun to get a taste of that sort of extreme variability with Dec 2010 being followed by a very mild February and a record warm April.

Whether or not this is the first indication of some sort of longer lasting change I've no idea, but if it is then I'll be looking out for an extremely wet season in the not too distant future and perhaps a few more very cold months within a year.

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Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk

sorry if this has been mentioned within this thread already as ive not read all the pages..

this has all been discussed many times in the solar and arora chat thread if one wants to read more..

but if i remember correctly, it is thought that the decrease in sunspots would in theory only lead in a global temp reduction of about 0.1-0.3 degrees, but those that say that often tend to forget to mention that actually, indirectly, this could be more sever than this. there is much evidence that sunspots relate to the position of the jet stream, and from our point of view here in the u.k, this is great news if you like cold and snow. (i.e years of low sunspot activity = southerly tracking jet trend)

scientists 'livingstone and penn' predicted the vanashing of sunspots by around 2014 a few years back and to be honest ive been harping on about it since!

i for one am looking forward to the next few decades just to see what happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]
  • Location: Queensbury, West Yorkshire. 327m (1,072ft) [top of road = 406m (1,332 ft)]

Is it just me that's noticed a new pattern that has emerged in these past few years following low solar activity?

Every year now seems to be the same:

Spring usually starts quite early but with the odd cold snap, and late spring and very early summer start off very warm and dry.

As summer goes on it gradually deteriorates, and by late July early August we start to see much cooler, wetter weather.

We have quite a cold autumn and there are an abundance of berries. (supposed to foresee a cold winter!)

Winter sets in very early with a lot of cold and snow before Christmas, it gets slightly milder at around Christmas and then colder again for another week or two after.

I'm not sure about anyone else, but in West Yorkshire this EXACT same pattern has repeated since 2008!

Since this spring has turned out early, warm and very dry, we will have to wait and see what summer brings. If it starts to turn cooler and wetter as we move further into summer then I'm not going to argue against another early cold winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District

No Ice Age is on the way.

The UK had a cool year in 2008 and a cold year in 2010 but these are two measly anomalies out of many many recent years much milder than average, and the UK is the UK, NOT the whole world. 2010 was the warmest year on record, globally.

Do you not think that if the sun was weakening and solar properties were driving some kind of ice age, then the whole world would be feeling the cooling effects and not just the UK? In actual fact the world is continuing to boil over at its frightning rate as ever.

Edited by EaasmanG
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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

No Ice Age is on the way.

The UK had a cool year in 2008 and a cold year in 2010 but these are two measly anomalies out of many many recent years much milder than average, and the UK is the UK, NOT the whole world. 2010 was the warmest year on record, globally.

Do you not think that if the sun was weakening and solar properties were driving some kind of ice age, then the whole world would be feeling the cooling effects and not just the UK? In actual fact the world is continuing to boil over at its frightning rate as ever.

However, it is suspected that the UK and Europe is especially prone to weakening of the solar cycle because it appears to cause the jet stream to move south. The reasons for this are not understood, but there is more than circumstantial evidence to suggest that when the sun is on its minimum part of the cycle blocking episodes become more frequent.

The evidence of effects is much weaker for other parts of the world. If these scientists are correct one of the most likely outcomes would be cooling for the UK and Europe and also more prolonged periods of extreme weather caused by buckled jet streams - So for instance a record cold month, followed quite soon after by a record warm month, followed quite soon after by a record wet month, followed quite soon after by a very cold winter, etc.... would not be uncommon, rather than extended periods of temperate normality, woth only the occasional extreme month thrown in here and there. Almost similar to the weather patterns we've been seeing since 2007? :blush:

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Just looked at the Solar Cycle 24 website and it looks like there will be a hibernation, but no ice age.

That is almost certainly the most likely scenario. Regional effects of an extended period of quiet solar activity (such as cooling, possibly quite dramatic cooling at that, for north-west Europe) will occur, but for the Earth itself an actual ice age is probably very unlikely especially with all the C02 we've pumped into the atmosphere.

Though the truth is, nobody really knows for sure.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

No Ice Age is on the way.

The UK had a cool year in 2008 and a cold year in 2010 but these are two measly anomalies out of many many recent years much milder than average, and the UK is the UK, NOT the whole world. 2010 was the warmest year on record, globally.

Do you not think that if the sun was weakening and solar properties were driving some kind of ice age, then the whole world would be feeling the cooling effects and not just the UK? In actual fact the world is continuing to boil over at its frightning rate as ever.

:huh:

A bit drastic, don't you think?

Actual fact; http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

I'm halfway through reading this by Dr Jasper Kirkby dated in 2005 — the research having been carried out ever since at CERN. They are about to publish their results which put Svensmark's observations to the test under laboratory conditions.

http://cloud.web.cer...ud_proposal.pdf

If they've found a mechanism which connects sunspots with what happens to our climate, weather and cloud formation, it would be really ground-breaking stuff.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Do you not think that if the sun was weakening and solar properties were driving some kind of ice age, then the whole world would be feeling the cooling effects and not just the UK? In actual fact the world is continuing to boil over at its frightning rate as ever.

You are missing one important factor here. You refer to the globabl climate but it could affect the climate in different ways. For example some places may experience more or less rainfall and others could experience a much lower drop in temps. Now NW Europe is probably the best example of this. Our climate is much warmer than it should be but thats only because of the prevalling W,lys. What happens when these W,lys are shut off due to blocking and our weather comes from the N/E. The answer is a massive drop in temp. Look at Jan 1963 when the CET was only -2.1, thats around 6C below normal!!

Im really surprised some believe this won't have an effect on our climate. Fair enough due to GW some locations around the world may not see much difference. However if low solar output means greater blocking and a jet stream moving further S, then for NW Europe it will have an incredible effect on temps. Surely the historical records already show how a maunder minimum can affect our climate and GW won't be enough to prevent us from feeling the bitter cold from the E. Certainly didn't help us during Dec 2010!

Like I said earlier I already believe its having an impact on our climate hence the recent colder winters and poor summers. Im already trying to put some money aside to pay for my heating bills this winter as im expecting a bitter freeze.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO, the most important fact that many folks are missing is that, as yet, there's not one iota of evidence that suggests that the Earth is actually cooling...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

IMO, the most important fact that many folks are missing is that, as yet, there's not one iota of evidence that suggests that the Earth is actually cooling...

No but at this stage I wouldn't expect there to be. In my opinion the effect of low solar output would happen in stages. The first stage is what I personally believe we're already experiencing i.e change in the position of the jet stream affecting our weather patterns. The result of this could mean that whilst places like the UK experience much colder winters, some locations could actually see much warmer temps. For example a HP over Greenland brings us bitterly cold NE/E,lys but at the same time its causing warmer S,lys on the W flank of the HP.

I forgot to add last night that im not convinced an ice age would occur due to the impact of GW. However NW Europe is especially prone for the reasons I gave last night. Some other locations such as S Europe would probably see much greater rainfall due to the jetstream moving further S.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I think the problem we have with whether we are going into a cooling period or not, is we have nothing to compare with.

My point being, the last cool period was at the beginning of the 19th Century, & apart from from some fairly detailed records from Europe, there is not much else to help us decide on how the weather changed.

Of cause these days we have all the technology & communications we need to form opinions on the climate.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I think the problem we have with whether we are going into a cooling period or not, is we have nothing to compare with.

My point being, the last cool period was at the beginning of the 19th Century, & apart from from some fairly detailed records from Europe, there is not much else to help us decide on how the weather changed.

Of cause these days we have all the technology & communications we need to form opinions on the climate.

Sometimes that can have a negative effect though, already views have become entrenched as to whether or not a Maunder Minimum is possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions. The climate will continue to do just whatever it pleases in my eyes, it's a case of wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

Sometimes that can have a negative effect though, already views have become entrenched as to whether or not a Maunder Minimum is possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions. The climate will continue to do just whatever it pleases in my eyes, it's a case of wait and see.

Surely you mean whether the effects [on our climate] of a Maunder Minimum are possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions? The Maunder Minimum describes the absence of sun spots over the period 1650–1715.

Whatever happens in Earth's atmosphere has absolutely no effect on what the Sun does, whereas the inverse may be proved to be true.

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Surely you mean weather the effects [on our climate] of a Maunder Minimum are possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions? The Maunder Minimum describes the absence of sun spots.

Whatever happens in Earth's atmosphere has absolutely no effect on what the Sun does, whereas the inverse may be proved to be true.

That is what I was implying?

Some argue that the added CO2 in the atmosphere, will negate the effects of a Maunder Minimum. Personally I feel that Solar output was responsible for the 30 year warming, combined with a positive PDO, and frequent positive ENSO ( El-Nino's ).

Edited by Seven of Nine
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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

That is what I was implying?

Some argue that the added CO2 in the atmosphere, will negate the effects of a Maunder Minimum. Personally I feel that Solar output was responsible for the 30 year warming, combined with a positive PDO, and frequent positive ENSO ( El-Nino's ).

Me too, but it wasn't very clear from your comment.

I have read enough to convince myself that 380ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere has not caused (and is an effect of) the observed warming and is actually part of a loooooong cycle based on solar activity or the lack of.

Furthermore, magnetic disturbances caused by the solar wind, whose intensity wanes and fluxes with the sunspot cycles, shield the Earth from cosmic rays which trigger cloud formation (this mechanism is being tested at CERN and is due for publication). More clouds, cooler climate as they reflect solar radiation back into space. Less clouds, more radiation is absorbed on the Earth's surface.

Finally, as Prof. Mike Kelly says. "there is a systematic divergence, now 16 years old, between the modelling results and the actual data on climate temperatures. At what point do we accept the data over the IPCC models?"

http://www.climateco...the-middle-way/

Edited by Iceni
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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

You are missing one important factor here. You refer to the globabl climate but it could affect the climate in different ways. For example some places may experience more or less rainfall and others could experience a much lower drop in temps. Now NW Europe is probably the best example of this. Our climate is much warmer than it should be but thats only because of the prevalling W,lys. What happens when these W,lys are shut off due to blocking and our weather comes from the N/E. The answer is a massive drop in temp. Look at Jan 1963 when the CET was only -2.1, thats around 6C below normal!!

Im really surprised some believe this won't have an effect on our climate. Fair enough due to GW some locations around the world may not see much difference. However if low solar output means greater blocking and a jet stream moving further S, then for NW Europe it will have an incredible effect on temps. Surely the historical records already show how a maunder minimum can affect our climate and GW won't be enough to prevent us from feeling the bitter cold from the E. Certainly didn't help us during Dec 2010!

Like I said earlier I already believe its having an impact on our climate hence the recent colder winters and poor summers. Im already trying to put some money aside to pay for my heating bills this winter as im expecting a bitter freeze.

You'll like this guy TEITS… I hope someone will elaborate on the differences between Troposheric and Stratospheric anomalies for me, I got a bit lost there.

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/features-2/wilde-weather/the-sun-could-control-earths-temperature/290.html

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Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand

A long term statistical analysis:

http://motls.blogspo...-from-1659.html

Would be interested in hearing what Mr Data thinks of this analysis...

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Sometimes that can have a negative effect though, already views have become entrenched as to whether or not a Maunder Minimum is possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions. The climate will continue to do just whatever it pleases in my eyes, it's a case of wait and see.

I totally agree, to much info can detract from what is going on infront of our very eyes.

If you strip back all the data that is available, and compare like for like, then we are in a period of solar minimum, and history tells us that cold periods in our climate fall within solar minimums.

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