Mini Ice Age On The Way?

[Snowmadsam]

I must say that this, is a very interesting read , I am looking forward to seeing if this happens in the future

[Staffordshire]

Don't think anyone has really brought this up before put do you think the low solar actvity is linked to the weakening of the gulf stream?

[Met4Cast]

Don't think anyone has really brought this up before put do you think the low solar actvity is linked to the weakening of the gulf stream?

Unlikely. The Gulf Stream is made up from Ocean currents due to salt salinity/warm and colder waters. The sun is unlikely to be the driver behind the Gulf Stream. The Jet Stream however, is atmospheric, so the sun has a greater affect on that.

[Staffordshire]

Unlikely. The Gulf Stream is made up from Ocean currents due to salt salinity/warm and colder waters. The sun is unlikely to be the driver behind the Gulf Stream. The Jet Stream however, is atmospheric, so the sun has a greater affect on that.

Yeah they've seemed to both decrese at similar times, the gulf stream is definatley being blocked which in the coming winter or two we should start to see the lag effect of.

[Met4Cast]

Yeah they've seemed to both decrese at similar times, the gulf stream is definatley being blocked which in the coming winter or two we should start to see the lag effect of.

Do you have a link showing the Gulf Stream has decreased? The Gulf Stream decreasing would mean less warm water in the Atlantic, which I think, helps to fuel the Jet Stream, so without the warmth of the Gulf, the Jet Stream is forced further Southwards.

[Staffordshire]

Do you have a link showing the Gulf Stream has decreased? The Gulf Stream decreasing would mean less warm water in the Atlantic, which I think, helps to fuel the Jet Stream, so without the warmth of the Gulf, the Jet Stream is forced further Southwards.

I can't post a link at the moment, and yes the jet stream shifting further south like it was last December if I remember rightly then that would allow high pressure to

build, therefore allowing bitterly cold artic air to flood in.

[Mesoscale]

I don't know about anyone else but I for one am looking forward to having different weather for once. London is almost on the same latitude as Winnipeg, Canada which is the coldest city in the world (over 600,000 people) and they get by just fine in winter.

The average high during the winter (November to March) is −6.6 °C (20 °F) and the average low is −16.2 °C (3 °F). The coldest temperature recorded in Winnipeg was −47.8 °C (−54.0 °F) on December 24, 1879 from Wikipedia

Its not that bad.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

I like sunspots ( sadface )

[Evening thunder]

I'm not completely convinced we will have a 'mini ice age' overall. I think I have read/seen that during the maunder minimum the average temp drop in the UK was still 1C or less, though I may be wrong and I'm not sure if the anomaly was greater in the winter. Also due to the higher global average temps now and increasing CO2 I think this may cancel out effects of this, although how much we are not sure and it would slow any warming.

I would however expect, like many other members, an increase in cold winters and cold spells as well as perhaps more 'poor' summers for our corner of the world if the Jet stream is shifted more south on average. it would be interesting to see if this happens and the trend over the last few years continues.

It may be that I think the term 'little ice age' seems stronger than just a increase in cold winters or a 1C drop in temps to me though.

IMO it would be nice to experience more winters closer to what more continental areas get (or areas at our latitude). Surely if they can cope with it we could learn to cope today and it would not be such an absolute disaster some might suggest?

About the Gulf Stream slowing down, I haven't actually seen any reliable evidence of this IMO, though I might have missed something. Does anyone have a link? I remember seeing a map being referred to lots but it showed every single current in the ocean i.e. off South America having reduced in the same way, which looked more like a resolution/scale change on the map to me.

[UV-RAY]

Unlikely. The Gulf Stream is made up from Ocean currents due to salt salinity/warm and colder waters. The sun is unlikely to be the driver behind the Gulf Stream. The Jet Stream however, is atmospheric, so the sun has a greater affect on that.

Maybe it does in a tentative sort of way, but not through a solar minimum rather at when solar activity is high. In layman's terms, the jet stream moves poleward at a time of higher solar activity this resulting in warmer temperatures/waters moving North also. This then causes a melting of the icepack in the Arctic, which then equates to colder waters moving towards the equator, thus resulting in a mixing of salinity/warmer waters with the colder waters from the poles.

[Met4Cast]

Maybe it does in a tentative sort of way, but not through a solar minimum rather at when solar activity is high. In layman's terms, the jet stream moves poleward at a time of higher solar activity this resulting in warmer temperatures/waters moving North also. This then causes a melting of the icepack in the Arctic, which then equates to colder waters moving towards the equator, thus resulting in a mixing of salinity/warmer waters with the colder waters from the poles.

Perhaps, but the only way the sun really does power the Gulf Stream is by heating up the waters at the equator which causes the colder, denser water to rise, starting off the current. Of course, as the Earth warms up, more amounts of fresh water flow into the sea, upsetting the salinity balance in the water, effectively cutting off the Gulf Stream leading to an Ice Age.

However, I haven't seen significant proof that the Gulf Stream is started to shut down, so I don't think we need to worry too much just yet

[UV-RAY]

Perhaps, but the only way the sun really does power the Gulf Stream is by heating up the waters at the equator which causes the colder, denser water to rise, starting off the current. Of course, as the Earth warms up, more amounts of fresh water flow into the sea, upsetting the salinity balance in the water, effectively cutting off the Gulf Stream leading to an Ice Age.

However, I haven't seen significant proof that the Gulf Stream is started to shut down, so I don't think we need to worry too much just yet

Off course there's no proof of a shut down, but there is proof of a disturbance in the flow over the last couple of years, whether this means anything is another question. Edited June 19, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[Staffordshire]

There are images of the gulf stream losing heat, type 'gulf stream stopping' or something along them lines into YouTube I'm sure you'll find something.

[Gael_Force]

I think people assume that the NAD had slowed or shut down in past cold periods - that doesn't need to happen - if atmospheric circulation patterns are altered with a blocking high in the arctic and atlantic, our warm winter air source is cut of and changes to a direction from north through to east as happened last december

[Summer Sun]

This is Jonathan Powell's view on the "Mini Ice Age"

A Dormant Sun

What should be a particularly busy time in the solar cycle frankly isn't, which may put the skids under the doom ladden prophecy of a flare causing our demise at the end of the Mayan calender.

Much speculation from certain quarters of the media has ensued, with parallels being drawn to the onset of a quieter phase of solar activity, and a cooling here on Earth, and indeed, a decline into a mini ice-age, and the skating on thin ice scenario that brings for both those who dabble in speculation and naive skaters themselves.

That's a tad extreme though! Whereas solar cycles are trend orientated, it is well within the realms of possibility that the sun simply resumes its normal posture, and continues to generate sunspot and flare activity as it has been demonstrating. There are other quarters of the weather industry that must be bubbling with excitement, wide-eyed with the thoughts of making that final, elusive, connection.

Jonathan Powell Senior Weather Forecaster Sunday June 19th 2011

[Snowyowl9]

You have to admit the last 3 winters have been out of the ordinary compared with late 1987/88 to whatever,excluding 1991 feb and 1995/1996 now the Eucalyptus trees around here on low ground where it`s coldest to night mins down to -18 last year,but even the coldest winter since 1978-79 two years ago has killed lots of those trees.

They were planted when the mild winters came in the late 80`s

I did find a site that 2005-06 the gulf stream was at it`s slowest and thats when we had our very blocked winter and russian had it`s coldest winter for umpteen years.

The gulf stream has quickened up more since for some reason.

As for the sun well solar maximum is going to be in May 2013,and it has woken up this year.

So mixed for this winter.

Another thing is there are more volcanos on the go this year,which may cool things.

[UV-RAY]

You have to admit the last 3 winters have been out of the ordinary compared with late 1987/88 to whatever,excluding 1991 feb and 1995/1996 now the Eucalyptus trees around here on low ground where it`s coldest to night mins down to -18 last year,but even the coldest winter since 1978-79 two years ago has killed lots of those trees.

They were planted when the mild winters came in the late 80`s

I did find a site that 2005-06 the gulf stream was at it`s slowest and thats when we had our very blocked winter and russian had it`s coldest winter for umpteen years.

The gulf stream has quickened up more since for some reason.

As for the sun well solar maximum is going to be in May 2013,and it has woken up this year.

So mixed for this winter.

Another thing is there are more volcanos on the go this year,which may cool things.

The maximum will still be well below the norm, as it is right now. It's cycle 25 which is the one that is getting people excited, that is due to peak around 2022, and looks like being one of the weakest in centuries. Exciting times ahead, me thinks.

This is Jonathan Powell's view on the "Mini Ice Age"

A Dormant Sun

What should be a particularly busy time in the solar cycle frankly isn't, which may put the skids under the doom ladden prophecy of a flare causing our demise at the end of the Mayan calender.

Much speculation from certain quarters of the media has ensued, with parallels being drawn to the onset of a quieter phase of solar activity, and a cooling here on Earth, and indeed, a decline into a mini ice-age, and the skating on thin ice scenario that brings for both those who dabble in speculation and naive skaters themselves.

That's a tad extreme though! Whereas solar cycles are trend orientated, it is well within the realms of possibility that the sun simply resumes its normal posture, and continues to generate sunspot and flare activity as it has been demonstrating. There are other quarters of the weather industry that must be bubbling with excitement, wide-eyed with the thoughts of making that final, elusive, connection.

Jonathan Powell Senior Weather Forecaster Sunday June 19th 2011

Jonathan Powell has the reversed Midas touch, so anything he says just think opposites!

[Staffordshire]

Yes give it a decade or so and IMHO I think we could be seeing winters similar to the likes of 67.

[19jacobob93]

The Daily Telegraph has a report on this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/8578014/New-Little-Ice-Age-in-store.html

I wonder what she means by global warming though. If she means anthropgenic global warming (from human activity - which doesn't actually exist) then no chance!

I can't believe people are so arrogant to think we can out-do mother nature and over power The Sun!

If we were an inch closer or further away from The Sun, we would boil or freeze respectively. That's how much a tiny change in solar enery can effect us!

Just look at the size of The Sun and the amount of energy it harvests. We are nothing compared to it and no matter what we do, we will never be able to change that!

[SP1986]

I get the impression that many people on here think a period of below average temperatures like 'the little ice age' means there will only be year after year of icy cold winters and such like.

I looked at some written records and it does seem like there were some very mild winters in that period too, in fact sometimes 3 back to back!

So whilst it would inevitably mean cooler winters, it wouldn't mean a cold winter every year I'm sure.

Some of those detailed summers are pretty hot too!

[Staffordshire]

Yes I totaly agree and it would also mean colder summers to, not all roses!

[paul tall]

IMO, the most important fact that many folks are missing is that, as yet, there's not one iota of evidence that suggests that the Earth is actually cooling...

How could there be, when the global climatic goalposts are constantly moved?

We could have several cooler years but would we really know? How powerful is the climate change industry and how many figures can it fudge? They've all bought into it, the met office, governments, the press - we can't be having a world that is not getting warmer year by year.

[Iceberg]

Lets not turn it into an AGW thread, but even the skeptics global temperature records et al Spencer and UAH show NO cooling.

Unless of course we want to believe a few articles that say that an ice age might be on it's way, (even though they go on to say that it's still very unknown) and then disbelieve the worlds actual scientists....

Still it takes all sorts.

[UV-RAY]

Lets not turn it into an AGW thread, but even the skeptics global temperature records et al Spencer and UAH show NO cooling.

Unless of course we want to believe a few articles that say that an ice age might be on it's way, (even though they go on to say that it's still very unknown) and then disbelieve the worlds actual scientists....

Still it takes all sorts.

Your quite right there is no cooling. merely a plateauing of temperatures over the last decade, as for a possible Maunder Minimum, well we can only speculate for now.

[paul tall]

Plateauing over a decade? It's a start.

Especially considering more UHI stations have been filtered into the averages over the last couple of decades.