Glastonbury Update (19Th June) Now Fully Updated

[J10]

The general theme for the next few days seems quite sorted. so I'll add attentional info per run, rather than repeat pretty much the same info each time.

General Theme

Monday :- Low Pressure starting way to the SW of Ireland, slowing moving NE during the day, with a mild South Westerly flow over Southern parts the UK. This giving moderate showers/perhaps a longer spell of rain pm.

Tuesday :- The Low Pressure starting to the SW of Ireland moving NE again, into Southern Scotland by the end of the day. The mild SW flow continuing over southern areas, with the chance of showers.

Wednesday :- The Low Pressure continuing to move east, with the centre finally clearing Eastern areas late afternoon, early evening. A South West flow veering West to North West later with more showers.

Thursday ;- a NW flow over the LP, with generally quite low pressure, this feeding showers over the UK. however SW England should escape the worst of them.

Friday :- A ridge of High Pressure from the West or South West. With the further chance of some showers.

Weekend :- Some uncertainty remains, however this mornings models suggest the ridge building from the west or South West, so mostly dry with the previous GFS thought of turning unsettled from the west becoming less likely.

Temps generally around 15-17c. GFS rainfall totals from now until Saturday up to T+144, are around 14mm, but this including 5mm on the Saturday which looks overstated compared to other models.

GFS 06Hz

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/78/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/102/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/126/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/144/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/168/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/78/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/102/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/126/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/144/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/06/168/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

As per above, Monday looks mostly dry, but some showers potentially moderate spreading up from the South West. Tuesday should see southern areas missing the worst of the showers, with only light showers here. Wednesday perhaps some heavier showers especially during the afternoon. Thursday and the SW should miss the worst of the showers again. Further showers Friday light to moderate.

Saturday the GFS builds the ridge over the UK with mostly dry conditions, perhaps a few showers in Eastern areas, while Sunday again with the ridge over the UK looking dry or mostly dry.

ECM 00Hz

Synoptically bang in line with the general theme, Friday sees pressure builds in from the west, this continues, over the weekend, more especially from the South West with High Pressure over the UK by the Sunday. However Drier from GFS on the Friday.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/00/ecmt850.072.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/00/ecmt850.196.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/00/ecmt850.120.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/00/ecmt850.144.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/00/ecmt850.168.png (sun)

UKMO 00HZ

Again in line with the above around around Friday, with a slower build up of pressure from the west, meaning more showers more akin to GFS. Saturday sees High Pressure over the UK, so mostly dry.

GFS 12Hz

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/72/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/96/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/120/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/144/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/168/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/72/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/96/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/120/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/144/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110619/12/168/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

As per above, Monday looks mostly dry, but a band of rain pushing up from the South West during the afternoon, bur mostly light and patchy. Tuesday should see southern areas missing the worst of the showers, but a damp and rather cloudy day. Wednesday sees a day of sunshine and showers perhaps some heavier showers at times. Thursday and the SW should miss the worst of the showers again and it may stay completely dry. Friday has the GFS flattening the ridge, and some light rain pushing in from the west later. Saturday sees a small area of low pressure pushing away to the east, so after patchy overnight rain, some showers are possible for Saturday. Sunday sees a ridge over the UK, so looking dry. Daily Temps, 16,15,14,17,19.

ECM 12Hz

Synoptically very similar to above, the low pressure centre to the SW of Ireland on Monday. It will move over Ireland by Tuesday, over Southern Scotland by Wednesday, before clearing away to the east on Thursday. Friday sees pressure build in from the West / South West especially over SW areas, so again drier than the GFS. High pressure then ridges in for the Saturday, meaning this should be a dry day. Sunday has High Pressure bang on top of the UK, so a dry warm and sunny day. 850Hpa daily temps 4,2,1,6,12.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/12/ecmt850.072.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/12/ecmt850.196.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/12/ecmt850.120.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/12/ecmt850.144.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110619/12/ecmt850.168.png (sun)

UKMO 12HZ

Again in line with the above around around Friday, with a decent ridge by Friday, meaning a mostly dry day over western areas. Saturday sees High Pressure over the UK, so mostly dry.

Summary

Not much change, Some showers are likely from Monday to Thursday, and possibly Friday, so conditions are likely to be damp. It should turn a bit drier over the weekend, but looking at videos from the site today, a dustbowl is impossible now. While a full scale a mudbath or washout is also very UNlikely, we are likely to more mud than dust, so on this basis a 6.

While I will continue to do the charts over the next few days, I really don't see that much changing from now on. With the summary on top probably close to the final conditions.

Future forecasts will concentrate more on daily conditions.

[J10]

Just to bump this as it has been fully updated with today's charts.

[gizmoman]

The general theme for the next few days seems quite sorted. so I'll add attentional info per run, rather than repeat pretty much the same info each time.

General Theme

Monday :- Low Pressure starting way to the SW of Ireland, slowing moving NE during the day, with a mild South Westerly flow over Southern parts the UK. This giving moderate showers/perhaps a longer spell of rain pm.

Tuesday :- The Low Pressure starting to the SW of Ireland moving NE again, into Southern Scotland by the end of the day. The mild SW flow continuing over southern areas, with the chance of showers.

Wednesday :- The Low Pressure continuing to move east, with the centre finally clearing Eastern areas late afternoon, early evening. A South West flow veering West to North West later with more showers.

Thursday ;- a NW flow over the LP, with generally quite low pressure, this feeding showers over the UK. however SW England should escape the worst of them.

Friday :- A ridge of High Pressure from the West or South West. With the further chance of some showers.

Weekend :- Some uncertainty remains, however this mornings models suggest the ridge building from the west or South West, so mostly dry with the previous GFS thought of turning unsettled from the west becoming less likely.

Temps generally around 15-17c. GFS rainfall totals from now until Saturday up to T+144, are around 14mm, but this including 5mm on the Saturday which looks overstated compared to other models.

GFS 06Hz

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe...6/78/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../102/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../126/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../144/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../168/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

As per above, Monday looks mostly dry, but some showers potentially moderate spreading up from the South West. Tuesday should see southern areas missing the worst of the showers, with only light showers here. Wednesday perhaps some heavier showers especially during the afternoon. Thursday and the SW should miss the worst of the showers again. Further showers Friday light to moderate.

Saturday the GFS builds the ridge over the UK with mostly dry conditions, perhaps a few showers in Eastern areas, while Sunday again with the ridge over the UK looking dry or mostly dry.

ECM 00Hz

Synoptically bang in line with the general theme, Friday sees pressure builds in from the west, this continues, over the weekend, more especially from the South West with High Pressure over the UK by the Sunday. However Drier from GFS on the Friday.

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.072.png (Wed)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.196.png (Thu)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.120.png (Fri)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.144.png (Sat)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.168.png (sun)

UKMO 00HZ

Again in line with the above around around Friday, with a slower build up of pressure from the west, meaning more showers more akin to GFS. Saturday sees High Pressure over the UK, so mostly dry.

GFS 12Hz

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe.../h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweathe...2/72/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweathe...2/96/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../120/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../144/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweathe.../168/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

As per above, Monday looks mostly dry, but a band of rain pushing up from the South West during the afternoon, bur mostly light and patchy. Tuesday should see southern areas missing the worst of the showers, but a damp and rather cloudy day. Wednesday sees a day of sunshine and showers perhaps some heavier showers at times. Thursday and the SW should miss the worst of the showers again and it may stay completely dry. Friday has the GFS flattening the ridge, and some light rain pushing in from the west later. Saturday sees a small area of low pressure pushing away to the east, so after patchy overnight rain, some showers are possible for Saturday. Sunday sees a ridge over the UK, so looking dry. Daily Temps, 16,15,14,17,19.

ECM 12Hz

Synoptically very similar to above, the low pressure centre to the SW of Ireland on Monday. It will move over Ireland by Tuesday, over Southern Scotland by Wednesday, before clearing away to the east on Thursday. Friday sees pressure build in from the West / South West especially over SW areas, so again drier than the GFS. High pressure then ridges in for the Saturday, meaning this should be a dry day. Sunday has High Pressure bang on top of the UK, so a dry warm and sunny day. 850Hpa daily temps 4,2,1,6,12.

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.072.png (Wed)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.196.png (Thu)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.120.png (Fri)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.144.png (Sat)

http://www.netweathe...ecmt850.168.png (sun)

UKMO 12HZ

Again in line with the above around around Friday, with a decent ridge by Friday, meaning a mostly dry day over western areas. Saturday sees High Pressure over the UK, so mostly dry.

Summary

Not much change, Some showers are likely from Monday to Thursday, and possibly Friday, so conditions are likely to be damp. It should turn a bit drier over the weekend, but looking at videos from the site today, a dustbowl is impossible now. While a full scale a mudbath or washout is also very likely, we are likely to more mud than dust, so on this basis a 6.

While I will continue to do the charts over the next few days, I really don't see that much changing from now on. With the summary on top probably close to the final conditions.

Future forecasts will concentrate more on daily conditions.

Do you mean very unlikely? The comment as it stands seems a bit pessimistic.

[danbailey80]

Do you mean very unlikely? The comment as it stands seems a bit pessimistic.

yes clearly means unlikely!!

[gizmoman]

yes clearly means unlikely!!

Well that's what I hoped but It would be good to have it corrected, that kind of talk gives me the jitters!

Edit, just noticed he uses the words 'no mudbath' in the other thread, that's more like it!

Edited June 19, 2011 by gizmoman

[J10]

Changed now

Definitely meant unlikely, luckily though the rest of the forecast made that clear, sorry about the confusion.

[gizmoman]

Changed now

Definitely meant unlikely, luckily though the rest of the forecast made that clear, sorry about the confusion.

Thanks for that Jackone, I can sleep a bit easier now!, really good of you to do this every year when you don't even go to the festival, we all appreciate it. I'm still fairly optimistic at the moment, the rain that has fallen on site so far still has time to dry away before gates open provided there isn't too much more before Wednesday, The video showing the wet ground yesterday was shot at the part of the festival that tends to get the muddiest (markets area) so other parts of the site will certainly be better. Still could turn out to be an acceptable to good festival weather wise.

[duggyfresh]

Thanks JACKONE. A King amongst Men. I salute you!

[J10]

Thanks JACKONE. A King amongst Men. I salute you!

I've been called worse.