Hurricane Beatriz

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92E has become the second tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific season with an intensity of 30kts. Convection is building nicely over the LLC and banding is improving, particularly on the western flank of the depression. With this in mind, it shouldn't be long before 02E becomes a tropical storm.

Waters are very warm in the region which should promote strengthening. At the same time, shear is set to rise to moderate levels over the next day or two which may slow intensification. NHC are forecasting 02E to still become a hurricane nonetheless, as the shear is not expected to exceed 20kts. Beyond 48hrs, waters cool significantly along the forecast track, which will cause weakening.

02E is currently moving west-northwestwards along the south side of a steering ridge to the north. This ridge is modelled to be weakened by as trough which should allow 02E to veer on a more northerly course soon. This will bring 02E very close to the coast of Mexico, likely when it is near or at hurricane strength. For this reason a hurricane watch has been issued along the coast from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. After 48hrs, the trough is expected to lift out and the ridge re-strengthen, which will force 02E westwards away from land but over the colder water.

[Cookie]

we now have Tropical Storm BEATRIZ

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/191731.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, not entirely surprising given the satellite appearance. As that forecast map shows, Beatriz will probably be grazing the Mexican Coast as a hurricane. With the current rate of organisation, I think Beatriz could peak a little above the 65kt peak in the NHC's first forecast discussion.

[onlyME]

NHC'S DISCUSSION: It isn't clear to me why forecasters from NHC write so much "..." .

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 200 am PDT...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Beatriz was located near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 102.6 west. Beatriz is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/h...and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track...the center of Beatriz is expected to approach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by late this evening or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next 48 hours...and Beatriz is forecast to become a hurricane later today. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm later today and provide a better estimate of its strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches. Hazards affecting land ---------------------- wind...hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area on Monday...making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Rainfall...Beatriz is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 8 inches along the coasts of the states of Jalisco... Colima...and michoacan in southwestern Mexico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm surge...a storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

[Jack Wales]

NHC have Beatriz up to 65mph, just short of hurricane status. The system now appears to be more vertically aligned so there is potential for rapid intensification given the 29C sst's and low shear environment.

Here is the live loop which shows the dense CDO and possibly the beginning of an eye feature starting to form.

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, Beatriz is looking pretty good at the moment, with a central dense overcast forming and just subtle hints of an eye perhaps trying to form. Intensity is 55kts, and Beatriz is forecast to become a hurricane within 12hrs. Banding is quite strong on the western side of the storm, and with the low shear there is some good outflow which should further aid intensification. This is not good news for Mexico, as Beatriz is still heading northwestwards towards the coast as the ridging to the north weakens.

[Somerset Squall]

A recon plane investigating Beatriz has found the storm to be just below hurricane strength, with sustained winds now at 60kts. Beatriz should become a hurricane soon and NHC forecast a peak of 80kts which I think is reasonable considering the storm will be intereacting with land soon which will limit intensification somewhat in comparison to if Beatriz was over open water.

5-8 inches of rain is expected widely along the southwest coast of Mexico, with amounts perhaps as high as 20 inches over higher ground- needless to say this will cause flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.

[onlyME]

Beatriz is near the Mexico coast.

It's a 75 mph hurricane with gusts to 90 mph.

Today Beatriz will brush the Mexico coast before turning westward an weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

Beatriz attained a peak intensity of 80kts (exactly as predicted by NHC) before scraping the coast. The land interaction has weakened Beatriz to 70kts, and weakening is expected from here on in as the cyclone veers west, controlled by the restrengthening ridge to the north. This motion will take Beatriz over much colder water, inducing rapid weakening.

[Cookie]

nice image of her,

[Somerset Squall]

What a difference a few hours makes Cookie. Beatriz is falling apart, fast. Land interaction significantly weakened Beatriz, but now stable, dry air is punching into the weakened core, and has practically diminshed all convection. Sea temps are shelving off steeply too, falling to below 25C. Based on these very hostile conditions, Beatriz may not even last till morning. As it stands, all Beatriz consists of is a broad circulation devoid of any convection ie. not really classifiable as a tropical cyclone.

[onlyME]

At morning Beatriz TOTALLY has fallen apart.

Recon did not find closed circulation and Beatriz is devoid of convection.

Bye-bye!