Glastonbury (21St June Update)

[J10]

Very much concentrated on the forecast per day and this stage, as the synoptic pattern is very well set.

Wednesday

The Centre of the Low pressure moving east during the day an clearing the UK, still though general low pressure over the UK, giving a NW flow and a mix of sunshine and showers. A trough is set to move SE through SW England during the morning, to be followed by showers (some heavy) during the rest of the day. However these should fade considerably during the evening. Looking at projected rainfall amounts, GFS goes for 2mm, NAE goes for 3-4mm NMM between 6-10mm, largely from the trough tomorrow am. So certainly wet/damp tomorrow am and early afternoon, drying out after this. Temps around 15-16c, with moderate NW Winds, some sunny intervals in between the showers in the afternoon.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/24/h850t850eu.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/21/ukprec.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/24/ukprec.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/27/ukprec.png

Thursday

The NW flow is kept over the UK, with pressure slowly building with a ridge from the South West (Pressure reaching 1020mb) by evening. Much of Southern Britain dry in the morning, but showers breaking out as per the GFS during the afternoon. However these look like missing SW parts, with areas further east more likely to have some showers. The odd shower cannot be ruled out, but it should stay mostly if not completely dry (agreement between GFS, UKMO and NAE on this). Temps around 14-15, but perhaps feeling slightly warmer with lighter NW winds and more in the way of sunshine in the afternoon.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/48/h850t850eu.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/48/ukprec.png

Friday

Decent model agreement at last on Friday's weather, a ridge of High Pressure will push in from the SW, (pressure 1025mb) for southern parts of the UK. Further North low pressure will push in at the same time. So a north south split, with cloud and rain for Northern areas, but dry and sunny to start for SW England. However more cloud may edge over Glastonbury later in the day, associated with the more unsettled conditions further north, but it will stay dry over Glastonbury. Winds will be from a West to north West direction, with Temps in the region 15-16c.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/72/h850t850eu.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/72/ukprec.png

Saturday

The low mentioned for Northern areas yesterday will continue to move NE over the UK. Overnight and during the morning, some of the rain may fringe Glastonbury, but at worst it should be patchy, with the heaviest of the rain reserved further north. It may be cloudy to start the day. (The ECM has higher pressure further south, so it may even be completely dry and a bit sunnier if ECM is correct). As the day progresses and as the High Continues to build from the south, it should quickly turn drier, and turn brighter as well. With winds from the South West and introducing a tropical Maritime flow, temps reaching 18-19c, so feeling warm in any late afternoon sunshine.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/96/h850t850eu.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/96/ukprec.png

Sunday

High Pressure continues to build over the UK during Sunday, and moves further east later in the day. So staying dry mostly dry (the odd shower cannot be completely ruled out). At this stage, it looks as if there will be plentiful sunshine on the Sunday. However there is still some uncertainty about this and more especially with the GFS forecast of temps hitting 24c, as very warm air pushing up from the South East. However do take your sun screen, as the sun is very strong at this time of year regardless of heat.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/24/h850t850eu.png http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110621/12/120/ukprec.png

Mud rating

On to the all important mud rating, I have received various reports of the ground condition at Glastonbury, there is some mud there now, but not that widespread. Conditions are set to be at their worst tomorrow, with some heavy rain possible tomorrow morning and afternoon. After this it should be mostly dry, and conditions should steadily improve day by day. So I'll go for a 5.5, but a lot depends on tomorrow rain, conditions are set to get better after tomorrow.

Summary

take your wellies to start the festival (at least) and your sun cream for Sunday, just in case, and enjoy the festival.

[ICGenie]

Jackone = Legend. Thanks for another rollerxoaster, shall we do it all again in a couple of years time?