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El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 3


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

lightning-bolts-thunder-strike-31001.jpg

A new thread ahead of any potential action later. Although we are all as excited as kids before a birthday party, can we try and stick to the subject as much as possible please?!!! :lol: :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Slightly worried now as it's brightening and what has just moved through WAS thundery. Need some sun to get to work to help intensify these showers back into storms.

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Posted
  • Location: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Notts, NG17, 163m ASL
  • Location: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Notts, NG17, 163m ASL

30.7 here now. Gone slightly cloudy too. Nice breeze though!

Would anyone like to guess my chances of seeing something this afternoon/evening?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Thankfully the high cloud that moved into my area is melting away with sunshine returning. Incredibly hot across E Anglia with temps widely around 31C with 35C being recorded in the shade in my garden. Amazingly its hotter here than in London which is rare.

Everything is going according to plan in my opinion and I eagerly await this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

1235125508_time_lapse_thunder_cloud.gif

A new thread ahead of any potential action later. Although we are all as excited as kids before a birthday party, can we try and stick to the subject as much as possible please?!!! :lol: :yahoo:

Some very interesting cloud formations at the mid level here. The humidity has risen significantly in the office and I have a headache forming. Typically we tend to be a good breeding ground for storms in this part of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

I don't get it... Theres currently 2600 CAPE over my post code with -8 lifted index and all there is to show for all that thunderstorm potential is a very small light shower within 50 miles :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

apologies to many of you but for the newbies who may be confused as to what to look for, these links may help explain some things

from the previous Spanish Plume

posts 528, 534, and 548.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I don't get it... Theres currently 2600 CAPE over my post code with -8 lifted index and all there is to show for all that thunderstorm potential is a very small light shower within 50 miles :doh:

Must be a pretty strong cap in place at present, with the little shower coming from a Cu underneath.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Scorchio! 30.2C and milky blue skies. Hoping from some action later. drinks.gif

Made me giggle that post then looking to see it was posted by Kent Snow :D

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

Will it snow in Lo.....oops sorry wrong thread.

Although, from reading these El Gordo threads it would seem predicting storms is as complicated and relies on as many different factors as forecasting snow.

It's very hot andf humid here too in S London but skies are clear.

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Guest Kent-Weather

Time: 13:47 on 27 June 2011 Wind: 6.8 mph from SW, Temp: 30.2°C, Pressure: 1013.9mb, Rainfall: 0.0mm Dewpoint:17.0°C

Expecting good storms later this evening and in particular early tomorrow morning

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Posted
  • Location: Cleethorpes, N.E. Lincolnshire
  • Location: Cleethorpes, N.E. Lincolnshire

Has gone hazy here now with an almost complete covering of Cirrus and also the breeze has picked up in the last half hour. Its 30C here with 51% rel humidity. Not exaclty ingredients for storms, but could occur later this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

There some nice stuff moving up through Nantes, Rennes and towards Caen at the moment. Which I think has the SE's name on it this eve...

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Cirrus/haze now arriving here - to the east it's still clear, but the western sky is very hazy. Hopefully, based on others' reports, it shouldn't last for too long. Look East dollybird predicting storms from late evening through to around 5-6 am tomorrow.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

31.1C here in South yorks. Paul Hudson recons a 33c will be reached around the donny / finningley area.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.

Can someone more knowledgeable of storms than me explain how a cape of 2600 and a lifted index of -8 in 30c heat can only produce a light shower? I would have expected fireworks with conditions like that!

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

Can someone more knowledgeable of storms than me explain how a cape of 2600 and a lifted index of -8 in 30c heat can only produce a light shower? I would have expected fireworks with conditions like that!

A really strong CAP in place keeping a lid on all that CAPE. We need the forcing to break the CAP, which hasn't happened anywhere yet, unfortunately :(

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

32.2c here on the SE Essex coast. Incredibly warm for this area. Dewpoint of 20.2c! and Humidity at 51%

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Can someone more knowledgeable of storms than me explain how a cape of 2600 and a lifted index of -8 in 30c heat can only produce a light shower? I would have expected fireworks with conditions like that!

Perhaps the GFS is overcooking things again? Although other ingredients are needed to fire off a storm than just CAPE and LI.

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

34C in Canterbury!

nicely clearing up here in south herts 30.8C hopefully we can gain a couple of degrees! Just a bit worried I might be a bit to far west to see anything good.

Edited by Mesoscale
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Guest Kent-Weather

Can someone more knowledgeable of storms than me explain how a cape of 2600 and a lifted index of -8 in 30c heat can only produce a light shower? I would have expected fireworks with conditions like that!

Convective Inhibition (a "cap" basically) can prevent storms initiating on days such as today

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