Model Output Discussion

[SP1986]

GFS 6z is an epic run, but probably a little overkill on the high pressure in FI (but it IS plausible).

Not much change, for now there is a well set pattern, and the GFS is hanging on to it, but other models are still presenting their own outcomes, so this is by no means a done deal. However it is very encouraging for those who like pleasant fair weather, with temperatures in the comfortable category, so far.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Well I'm off to Crete for a week today. Hopefully when I get back we'll be staring down the barrell of what the GFS 06z is showing in FI, with the Azores ridge breaking off and inching slowly eastwards across the BI...

[Summer Sun]

Just been looking at the GFS charts if GFS at 144 hrs + was to come off things would be quite pleasant, not as hot as last weekend but 20c to 25c would be around what we would expect with 10 uppers over all of the uk at times but the south will be best for any longer periods of warmth.

[mushymanrob]

i like the gfs 06z, especially the azh linking wth the scandi high, if that happens we could get a real hot evolution... hopecasting again, sorry... but theres alot of potential in these runs. to me the gfs looks average at worst, it cant be a bad thing!

[anvilhead]

not sure about hopecasting - looks promissing to me aswell. To me it looks like troughs are now butting up against the continent, the air travelling south and underneath a developing azores/atlantic hp - this in turn moving waa up its northern side and moving the jet north (happening at t72) - same thing happening at t168, with the high being reinforced and moving further north. By t240 the jet is laying across iceland, the hp over us, still not hot situation as we're always on the north of the hp, but as time goes by its possible that the hp will shift east as cold pools into eastern europe ...

cheers, sam

[Milhouse]

GFS 00z this morning was an outlier or top of the range at best in terms of SLP from around T+168 onwards;

http://www.netweathe...bridgeshire.png

Though in the short term it is looking dry and increasingly warm, temperatures could get up to the mid-20's in the South by Tuesday and even getting into the low 20's up into Southern Scotland.

Tuesday looks like being a mini-plume but the build up to it isnt as conducive to producing the heat that we saw last weekend. Ideally we need warm and humid air to be sucked up from the Azores first to kick-start a classic Spanish plume. In this case it looks like LP descending from the north west will just bump up against high presure over the UK so we dont have that really warm source of air present. Still low to mid 20s do look likely on Tuesday.

[shedhead]

The 06 GFS, far from backing away from the 00's overall fine evolution has actually improved on it, with everything pretty much where we want to see it synoptically if fine, dry and warm weather is your thing.

Really cannot see it panning out as good as it suggests though, but neither can I see things being as dire as the 00 ECM. So as I said earlier some sort of half way house will probably emerge across

subsequent runs, which for most should ensure some decent conditiions during the first half of July, with the south tending to fair best of all.

Edited July 1, 2011 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

There is nothing in any of the teleconnections, short or long, as of this morning, that suggests the pattern is going to change dramatically over the next month.

Perhaps a couple or so days through the month, especially for the SE'ern half of the UK with very warm, possibly hot, by official definition, temperatures, otherwise an average sort of month for temps, rain and probably sun. The further north west you live then the less likely to see much in the way of settled weather. Surface high pressure seems unlikely other than for short spells to be any position to give the dry warmth over more than a couple of days that many seem to be hoping for.

Its pretty certain that an upper low to the north west of the country over the next 10-15 days will be a major player.

[Backtrack]

Woah what a run the 6z is, how likely is it to verify?

[Staffordshire]

Woah what a run the 6z is, how likely is it to verify?

ooer what's it showing, I'm on my iPod ATM and have no acsess to gfs/ECM

[Backtrack]

ooer what's it showing, I'm on my iPod ATM and have no acsess to gfs/ECM

:lol:

Constant high pressure and temperatures of around 24/25C from 8th July to the end of the run.

[Staffordshire]

:lol:

Constant high pressure and temperatures of around 24/25C from 8th July to the end of the run.

I certinaly wouldn't mind that!

[Backtrack]

I certinaly wouldn't mind that!

Hopefully the ECM and 12z will support it, but John Holmes has said that there is no teleconnection support.

Hopefully that will change soon!

[k19]

Hopefully the ECM and 12z will support it, but John Holmes has said that there is no teleconnection support.

Hopefully that will change soon!

very unlikely the operational is an outlier in every sense of the word

Still if it varify's in 12z there is a chance

[Summer Sun]

Apart from any cloud that may build during the day this weekend should be quite pleasent, low to mid 20's widely,

Tuesday see's only the SE keep the 10 uppers

Hints if something warmer again later next week for the south?

Edited July 1, 2011 by Gavin D

[Alex]

The 12z is almost a repeat performance of this week for next week, Monday/Tuesday sees the warmest temps (not as hot) but 10c uppers across the southeast so perhaps a 27c? Then a showery week in prospect with the trough edging slightly eastwards however by the end of next week, again the trough moves west and the Azores high links up with the scandi high. The week after sees a further evolution with warmer conditions being pushed north from the continent however later into FI looks a touch iffy and unrealistic with a sudden euro low pushing across eastern areas leaving the west best.

Interesting point of the 12z is again it pushes the trough westwards after Wednesday next week, so perhaps a showery Wednesday but not a bad week for most bar the northwest of the UK.

Edited July 1, 2011 by Alex

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is now fully out and it continues to show high pressure over the UK for most of the time, away from the south and SE we mainly have 5 uppers with the South and SE seeing 10 uppers at times.

Most places away from the NW and Northern Ireland should see temps from 16c to 24c.

All in all not a bad week really, some sun and warmth in longer periods, with some rain sometimes heavy.

It will be interesting to see what ECM comes up with later.

Not sure how good JMA is but it develops this by next weekend

Edited July 1, 2011 by Gavin D

[shedhead]

Once again the 12GFS is at odds with the 12UKMO at +144hrs, much as the respective 00 runs were, when ECM was also pretty much in line with UKMO. If I had to put money on which evolution ECM will back later this evening

it would be UKMO, primarily because these two have continued to show consistancy with regard to the positioning and movement of next weeks upper low, so cooler and more unsettled does look the more likely senario to me

from Tuesday - perhaps for several days too.

[Gordon]

it seems like a continuation of the Status Quo it seems

[Backtrack]

Apart from any cloud that may build during the day this weekend should be quite pleasent, low to mid 20's widely,

Tuesday see's only the SE keep the 10 uppers

Hints if something warmer again later next week for the south?

Uppers are not everything Gavin.

I like the GFS 12z better than the 6z. It shows the heights over Greenland finally going home, being replaced by low pressure!

[Jason T]

To be honest, I would gladly take the model output we have now as we all can have that little bite of the cherry from now to later runs, We never needed NO crystal ball 4 weeks ago. The heat fest we had last weekend and monday,followed by storms was bite back time and aslong as that greenland high buggers of its doors open for the uk. Onwards and upwards in my opinion, a few hickups on the way but we will get there.

Edited July 1, 2011 by silver line

[johnholmes]

On the NOAA 5 and 6 day stats for 500mb over the northern Hemisphere, at 5 days its close for all 3, GFS is between ECMWF(top) and UK Met, and in the 6 day one ECMWF continues as top with UK Met having a pretty poor 2-3 days latterly so GFS doing better at 6 days than UK Met.

[Summer Sun]

ECM Continues to stick to it's guns with low pressure by Wednesday, looks like southern and eastern europe continues with the heatwave,

So either ECM is wrong or GFS is a massive outliner and it will downgrade over the coming day's.

ECM Shows improvements slowly by next weekend

Edited July 1, 2011 by Gavin D

[J10]

GFS 6z is an epic run, but probably a little overkill on the high pressure in FI (but it IS plausible).

Not much change, for now there is a well set pattern, and the GFS is hanging on to it, but other models are still presenting their own outcomes, so this is by no means a done deal. However it is very encouraging for those who like pleasant fair weather, with temperatures in the comfortable category, so far.

This week has been very decent, and if GFS 12Hz were to verify the next week would be very decent as well. Of Course UKMO and ECM go for a far more unsettled approach, with the low pressure much closer or on top, from around midweek onwards. If UKMO/ECM was to verify probably similar weather to the start of last week (w/c 20th June).

However will we get a halfway house, quite possibly.

[Sunny Android]

Looking across UKMO, ECM, GFS and NOGAPs Jackone and given the low pressure senario on all by mid-week I cannot see your 'halfway house'.

The only hope is the warm sector on these depressions falls after lunch and a brief glimpse of sun pushes the temperature up.

Edited July 1, 2011 by Sunny Android