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El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Well yesterday was a let down for many and I am personally surprised France didn't get absolutely pasted!

Still, maybe a few more chances today so let's remain positive and look for possibilities, rather than throwing a tantrum in the sweetie aisle when Mummy won't buy us a packet of wine gums!!!! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: The Fens, South Lincolnshire
  • Location: The Fens, South Lincolnshire

Looks like the "great plains" of the Fens are in for an interesting half hour or so. Rumble Rumble.

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

Looks like the "great plains" of the Fens are in for an interesting half hour or so. Rumble Rumble.

thunder here for the last 10 mins or so.lightening now and heavy rain

Edited by sparky1972
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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

I was kind of expecting for this to go wrong, every time something amazing is showing on models it just... Dosent happen. I remember I was meant to get about 20cm of snow last winter in one night... I ended up with about 3. Just bring me heat and I'll be happy i Cant be bothered with being let down, at least if there's stable high over us at least there's not going to be any potential.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley
  • Location: Bexley

Have to chuckle.

London Today News: Main story - London braces itself for flash flooding and heavy thunderstorms today.

followed by ...

London Today Weather: Hot and cloudy. Outside chance of an isolated shower to the far east.

Even the newscaster had a wry smile when it cut back to her

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Apparently we had a storm last night, but I was freaking asleep! I don't know why nobody in my house didn't wake me up when they heard it. :(

Maybe they were deep in their sleep too?

Our storm last night had very loud thunder and superb lightning. Very pleased. :D Yet another "southerly" based wind success for here. :D

Edited by Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants

Woke up to thunder and rain about 6:30ish, 10 or so rumbles. Not that exciting really. Knew we'd get naff all as per usual.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire

Maybe they were deep in their sleep too?

Our storm last night had very loud thunder and superb lightning. Very pleased. :D Yet another "southerly" based wind success for here. :D

Nah, they were awake, I just got told about it. :(

It's just ridiculous how you wait so long for a 'real' storm and when it happens, you're unconscious!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

ESTOFEX have an interesting area under a level 1 today:

post-6667-0-13071000-1309243456.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 28 Jun 2011 06:00 to Wed 29 Jun 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 27 Jun 2011 21:34

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 2 has been issued for parts of northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and extreme precipitation.

A level 1 has been issued for an area surrounding the level 2 area including the remainder of the Benelux countries, western parts of Germany and northern France, mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.

A level 1 has been issued for central and southern France and for northern Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 has been issued for the western and central Ukraine, Moldova and northeastern Romania mainly for weak tornadoes and heavy rain.

A level 1 has been issued for Belarus and southwestern Russia mainly for heavy rain and hail.

SYNOPSIS

East of an amplified trough over the Atlantic, a very warm air-mass is advected northnortheastward over western Europe. A shortwave trough at its base will lift northward producing surface pressure falls ahead of it, resulting in a slack surface low that will be the focus of convective storm activity.

Across eastern Europe, covnective storms are expected within a fairly cold air-mass in vicinity of a cold-core low over sourthern Ukraine, as well as within a warm advection regime over southwestern Russia and Belarus.

... Northern France, Benelux countries, extreme western Germany ...

Considerable CAPE has developed through an elevated mixed layer/moist boundary layer combination that is sustaining several mesoscale convective systems. The influence of their remnants will be relevant to the convective scenario to unfold on Tuesday.

Model guidance has not been consistent during Monday with regard tot eh location of the surface low that should develop over France, and move northward over the Benelux or southern North Sea during the day.

Greatest severe potential appears likely in case the low moves slow and a flow with an easterly component is maintained ahead of it, as this should result in the best overlap of instability and deep-layer shear possibly including sufficient helicity to support storm rotation. It is of concern that none of the available models simulates the MCS that is developing over the Bay of Biscay.

Will sketch a scenario here that some convection will be ongoing over the North Sea, English Channel, (north)western parts of France at daybreak and that mid and upper-level clouds to the east of this activity will have enough breaks for considerable surface-based instability (around or above 2000 J/kg) to redevelop. This should not be a problem courtesy of climatologically very high low-level moisture with dew points of 20-23 forecast in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.

The combination of such instability with moderate wind shear (around 15 m/s in the 0-6 km layer) should allow a couple of severe multicell storms to form during the afternoon with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

During the mid- to late evening, as forcing related to the approaching mid-/upper-level trough sets in, storm coverage should increase and develop eastward. The high moisture (40 mm of precipitable water) favours locally high precipitation accumulations and an attendant flash flood threat.

UKASF:

post-6667-0-30729100-1309243628.jpg

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 22:06 Monday, 27th June 2011

Valid: 06:06 Tuesday, 28th June 2011 - 05:06 Tuesday, 28th June 2011

Areas Affected:

East Anglia, South East England, Ireland, Northern Ireland

Discussion:

Between a large upper trough (surface Low "Harry) and upper ridge (surface High "Gertraud") a very warm and humid airmass is advected northwards over the North Sea and into Scandinavia, ahead of a cold front. Some CAPE is forecast to build over SE England during the day, with temperatures expected to peak at 24C. This, combined with forcing from the front and the development of a surface Low over Benelux, may promote convection to occur.

Therefore some thunderstorms are possible over the eastern side of East Anglia and across Kent and East Sussex in particular. Deep layer shear of up to 60kts will allow for organisation of convection, although meagre shear in the lowest layers will severely limit tornado potential. Hail is possible, although more likely offshore and on the nearby continent where it may be locally large in size. It is worth noting that the surface winds will be northerly, whilst southerly at 500mb.

However, we must also consider excess cloud amounts which may limit sufficient insolation for such storms to develop. This may also be linked to remnants of overnight storms/MCS systems over the North Sea and nearby continent.

Over Ireland, post-frontal showers are expected to develop with isolated thunder and lightning in places. These showers will quickly decay during the evening due to the absence of daytime heating.

SkyWarn:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #033

ISSUED: 1500UTC MONDAY 27TH JUNE 2011

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHEAST ENGLAND

EASTERN ENGLAND

SOUTHEASTERN ENGLAND

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1500UTC TUESDAY 28TH JUNE 2011

FRONTAL DESTABILISATION OF WARM AIRMASS CAUSING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS OR TORNADOES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...FLASH FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONGER CONFIDENCE, GUIDED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK UNDERWAY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF ENGLAND THROUGH UNTIL 20Z. ONCOMING COLD FRONT IS GENERATING CONVECITION UNDER STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE SURFACE CONVERGENCE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UK. STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY; FUNNELS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTING INTO THE SW OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BUCKLING OF THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN REGIONS OF ENGLAND, MOVING EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG IT'S WESTERN SIDE, WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS, AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR TO THE E-SE OVERNIGHT. STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTHERN CENTRAL BUT SPREADING TO GREATER LONDON, EAST ANGLIA AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER SLOWLY. PLEASE MONITOR TRAVEL INFORMATION AS NECESSARY AND SEEK SHELTER IF UNSURE OF APPROACHING STORM RISK. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED.

UPDATE - COLD FRONT IS ACROSS WALES AND NORTHERN ENGLAND WHILE EUROPEAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE BISCAY AREA WILL ADVECT BETWEEN THE TWO, OVER SOUTHEASTERN ENGLAND, THROUGH THE MORNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

TORRO still have yesterdays:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/011

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 13:40GMT on Monday 27th June 2011

Valid from/until: 13:40GMT - 09:00GMT on Monday 27th/Tuesday 28th June 2011 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of England

Central and eastern Wales

Extreme SE Scotland

THREATS

Wind gusts to 60mph; heavy rain; cloud-ground lightning; isolated tornadoes; hail to 3cm

DISCUSSION

Reasonably steep lapse rates/EML atop moist boundary layer, approaching upper trough, and local surface convergence/diurnal heating has allowed thunderstorms to form across N England. These are within a regime of 35-40 knots of 0-6km shear, and so may have time to organise before moving offshore. Instability and shear are suffificent for hail to around 3cm diameter, 60 mph winds, and perhaps a tornado, but overall coverage appears too low to warrant a watch.

Further south, an area of mid-level showers is spreading NE across parts of Wales and the Midlands, with further showers/thunderstorms to the west of NW France. The activity over the mainland may root into the boundary layer as it continue to move NE, with an attendant risk of hail/wind/tornado, but at this stage, uncertainty about development precludes a watch.

The activity west of NW France should continue towards SW England this afternoon and then spread NE this evening and overnight. Further activity is expected to develop/move in from the SW across portions of Cent S and SE England and E Anglia overnight and into tomorrow morning. Much of this should be elevated, but cloud layer shear of 20-25 knots may be enough for mid-level rotation to develop, with an attendant risk of hail, perhaps to 3cm. Again, uncertainty over development and overall severe coverage precludes the issuance of a watch at this stage.

Here are some other indicators:

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_12_00Z.png

PGNE14_CL_small.gif

30_19.gif

30_24.gif

cape.curr.1200lst.d2.png

sounding3.curr.1200lst.d2.png

zsfclcldif.curr.1200lst.d2.png

sfcdewpt.curr.1200lst.d2.png

gfs_icape_eur12.png

Nice!!!!!

gfs_kili_eur12.png

gfs_spout_eur12.png

gfs_lapse2_eur12.png

gfs_stp_eur12.png

MCS on the move?

gfs_pw_eur12.png

I'm still happy in this corner of the UK to see potential for today!

post-6667-0-13071000-1309243456_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-30729100-1309243628_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

Doesn't look like the cold front went through overnight, still seems to be lieing in a line from East Devon up to Lincs. Can only hope that this helps produce storms today because maybe the warm humid air still over SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Can only hope that this helps produce storms today because maybe the warm humid air still over SE.

Still sticky here, I have already seen some convection to the West of Eastbourne on my way into work this morning. If Harry is about he may want to get down to Dymchurch as Kent looks a good place to be in the next few hours (usual caveats apply!!!)

Rdtlmett.gif

Rdtlmetd.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

Yes Coast, 22C here at 0800 and not below 19C overnight. Nice charts, so all not lost yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/West Berkshire/South Oxfordshire/Tilehurst border. (Purley-on-Thames)
  • Location: Reading/West Berkshire/South Oxfordshire/Tilehurst border. (Purley-on-Thames)

Looks like a bust for Reading again. But I guess not all is lost now. It's all up to hopecasting!

Edited by Skyscape
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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

Coast question. Just been out for a ciggie and noticed that there is a bit of high level cloud moving in a NE direction but also some small low level darker bubblyish clouds moving very quickly in a SW'ley direction. Also very dark looking on northern horizon. Is there a surface low nearby that could account for this as looks very weird....

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Coast question. Just been out for a ciggie and noticed that there is a bit of high level cloud moving in a NE direction but also some small low level darker bubblyish clouds moving very quickly in a SW'ley direction. Also very dark looking on northern horizon. Is there a surface low nearby that could account for this as looks very weird....

Hmmm, must go and have a look at the other charts etc. But yes, I've seen similar this morning myself. Going to remain positive as this was all about two days worth of potential and there is still the day ahead of us!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: up a bit from from Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: up a bit from from Chelmsford, Essex

Is there going to be any analyisis as to why all the hype was pretty well for nothing? What is the point of the models? Been a lot easier to sit around doing something useful and just accept what you get,

H

Edited by Habsish
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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Any idea when the heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to reach the east? whistling.gif

Another seriously disappointing "event", bring back the 1980's nonono.gif However I would just like to thank Roger for explaining the reasons why things didn't go as expected for the areas considered most at risk.

My strike alert did go off a couple of times this morning but that was because it was canoodling with the radio rolleyes.gif Much fresher this morning but under a grey featureless sky, normal service etc......

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Looks as though the cold front is sitting over my house at Evesham Worcestershire. Certainly died a death over here, but to the far SouthWest and Northeast there is some convection..... :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard
  • Weather Preferences: T-storms
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard

Is there going to be any analyisis as to why all the hype was pretty well for nothing? What is the point of the models? Been a lot easier to sit around doing something useful and just accept what you get,

Has already been explained; Roger J Smith's post mortem, for example: http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2098264

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

Is there going to be any analyisis as to why all the hype was pretty well for nothing? What is the point of the models? Been a lot easier to sit around doing something useful and just accept what you get,

H

wondered how long it woud be before the moaners kicked off :-) Just have to except that a forecast is a forecast and not set in stone. Storms are complex animals and rely on a number of factors coming together and other factors not happening. Un fortunately for a lot of us, cirrus clouds stopped any development of storms. If the NC clouds can't get above the cap it ain't gonna happen.

Some people were lucky as there were quite a few isolated storms over the UK and a huge supercell over N|E France yesterday evening. BUT i was expecting the cold front to be clear of UK by now and see that it is still lieing SW/NW from Devon to Lincs, so still a chance for some fireworks today

Have faith and except that in these situations, it is always hit and miss.

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Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex

I think the far south east is still in with a chance of something today. No where near as much energy available as the last few days but still in an environment of good deep layer shear, dew points and showing some vertical lift - with the cold front still to come through. Probably timing again as the energy starts slipping away through out the afternoon and possibly still a strong cap.

Anybody else spot that concentrated area of precip at 6pm? Seems to be in area of some cape (not much) but still showing good DLS and uplift.

Edited by danuk
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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Massive anvil to my south, looks to be over the channel...

Very poor forecasting yesterday :(

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

I think the far south east is still in with a chance of something today. No where near as much energy available as the last few days but still in an environment of good deep layer shear, dew points and showing some vertical lift - with the cold front still to come through. Probably timing again as the energy starts slipping away through out the afternoon and possibly still a strong cap.

Anybody else spot that concentrated area of precip at 6pm? Seems to be in area of some cape (not much) but still showing good DLS and uplift.

?? 6pm tonight or yesterday?

Anyway, couple of small areas of development to our south, one coming out of Fecamp and heading towards East Sussex and the other around Jersey heading towards East of Portsmouth in a NE direction. Nothing major but still development

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