Major Hurricane Dora

[Paranoid]

Another system has formed in the East Pacific off the coast of Mexico. I think this was a system that started off in the Caribbean.

00

WTPZ34 KNHC 181431

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011

800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH

OF GUATEMALA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.6N 91.5W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR

ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE

DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND

COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

000

WTPZ34 KNHC 181431

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011

800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH

OF GUATEMALA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.6N 91.5W

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR

ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE

DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...AND

COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Somerset Squall]

It was indeed Paranoid, was too close to land to develop in the Atlantic but now the system has a wide expanse of very warm water to develop further in, perhaps rapidly as the NHC indicate in the discussion you have posted. 04E is located south of Guatemala in the extreme east of the basin, and thus has several days over warm water. Shear is modeate as present, but I don't think it's strong enough to stop 04E intensifying. In fact, looking at satellite imagery, 04E could possibly already be a tropical storm, I suspect we will see an upgrade to Dora next advisory, if not, it won't be long. Strong banding is already well developed, and this is feeding convection into the centre. Once the shear eases the system could explode. NHC are being very aggressive with the intensity, forecasting 04E to become the second major hurricane of the season before it reaches colder waters on the typical west-northwesterly track. If this were achieved, I think it will be a rare occurence indeed to have the first four systems of the season all achieve hurricane status. In fact, this has not happened since 1971.

[Somerset Squall]

NHC has just released an update statement upgrading TD4E to TS Dora, with intensity rising to 35kts.

[Paranoid]

NHC forecasting Dora to spin up fairly quickly to Cat 3 at the moment. How quickly Dora strengthens over the next day or so will probably show whether that's accurate or not.

[Cookie]

Dora the Explorer

[Somerset Squall]

Dora has strengthened rapidly and is nearly a hurricane, with intensity now at 60kts. An eye is emerging in the central dense overcast feature. Shear remains low, waters are still very warm and upper level outflow remains impressive. These factors scream out rapid intensification, and Dora should quite quickly become a major hurricane before reaching cooler waters in 3 days time.

[Cookie]

[onlyME]

Dora is now a 80 mph Cat1 hurricane,and it is moving WNW and steady intensifying in favorable environment.<div>As the mid level ridge over (I think) central USA weakens and moves to east,Dora will move in NW direction and peak as a Cat3 major hurricane.</div><div>Then Dora will cross in unfavorable environment over cooler waters and dry air.<br><br><br>

</div>

[Somerset Squall]

Dora has continued to strengthen and intensity has risen to 80kts. Hurricane Dora has a rugged eye and some good banding. Conditions for now remain ripe for strengthening, and NHC forecast a peak intensity of 110kts before Dora reaches cooler water.

[Paranoid]

Now up to a Cat 2 with 105mph winds. Looks very good on satellite images and i'd say RI is probably underway already.

[Somerset Squall]

I agree Paranoid, certainly looks like Dora is rapidly intensifying if this latest image is anything to go by:

[Cookie]

going through the gears!

[Cookie]

2nd Major of the 2011 East Pacific season

[Paranoid]

2001? Have we gone back in time ?

I think Dora is strengthening ahead of schedule, so i think she'll make it to a moderate Cat 4 (already looks it i'd say from the image although it may take some time for winds to respond). Haven't looked at the latest wind predictions yet, so the NHC may already be calling for Dora to reach Cat 4.

Edit: Indeed they are, Dora's forecast to peak at 145mph (in about a day's time) at the moment.

[Somerset Squall]

Intensity has risen to 100kts, making Dora a major cat 3 as Cookie and Paranoid have said. Interestingly, NHC say the SHIPS rapid intensification index indicates a 46% chance of a 40kt increase in intensity over the next 24hrs. Dora has about another 36-48hrs over warm waters and light shear. As a result, there is a signicant chance Dora could become a cat 5, as just a 40kt increase in intensity will put Dora at cat 5 status. If this does occur, it will make it the third year in a row for a cat 5 in the East Pacific. We will have to wait and see

[Paranoid]

Certainly can't rule out a Cat 5. Personally, i think a peak of 145mph is fairly conservative (as the NHC often seem to be), i think somewhere in the range of 150-160mph is more likely (IMO), but then again, I'm not a meteorologist. As long as nothing unexpected happens (sudden increase in shear, dry air entrainment or eye wall replacement cycles), i think Dora has a reasonable chance of making it into the lower end of Cat 5.

[Paranoid]

Apologies for double post, IR definitely underway. Pressure's dropped 20mb in the last 3 hours and Dora is now Cat 4. The eye is very clear on satellite images and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis-l.jpg

000

WTPZ34 KNHC 202343

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011

500 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011

...DORA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY 4

HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 104.8W

ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO

ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. DORA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT

48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA IS EXPECTED

TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215

KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN

PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF THE

WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP

CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[knocker]

Just another of Dora. I won't repeat Paranoids post. Image captured by Terra-MODIS courtesy NASA.

[onlyME]

What I've found while lurking on Storm2k

A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER<br style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; ">TWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERN<br style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; ">PACIFIC.<br style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><br style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; ">"SWIPER NO SWIPING! SWIPER NO SWIPING! SWIPER NO-" "You're too late! Now you'll never find the warm waters of the East Pacific!"

Dora is now a powerful and possibly annular Cat4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph.

[Paranoid]

Dora's had another burst of strengthening and is now nearly Cat 5.

000

WTPZ34 KNHC 211438

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011

800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011

...DORA NEARLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO REMAIN

OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.1N 106.9W

ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. DORA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK DORA IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL

OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

INCREASED TO 155 MPH...250 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A

CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME

WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TONIGHT...AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150

MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF

SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL

BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[onlyME]

Dora is looking nearly perfect and it has to strengthen only 1 mph more to become a Cat5.

Satellite image:

[Somerset Squall]

Dora is looking very impressive this afternoon, and intensity has risen to 135kts, making Dora a high end cat 4. Dora could become a category 5 storm this evening as it is not far off now. The eye is very well defined, embedded in a strong CDO feature with a strong band wrapping into the western quadrant of the storm. Dora should begin to weaken early tomorrow as water cool along track.

[Somerset Squall]

Dora remains an intense cat 4 hurricane with intensity falling slightly to 130kts. Dora has weakened slightly in response to a modest increase in shear and cooling sea temps. Gradual weakening is expected followed by more aggressive weakening as Dora moves northwestwards over cold water. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Baja California as Dora may get close enough to bring tropical storm force winds, particularly if the track forecast shifts east.

[onlyME]

Dora is still over 28 C waters but she has weakened to 125 mph Cat3 and she is undergoing high northerly wind shear.

Dvorak's T number is 2,2

Satellite image:

Bye,Dora the Explorer.

[Somerset Squall]

Strong shear and declining sea temperatures area taking their toll on Dora. Intensity has fallen rapidly through the day, currently at 75kts. The eye has almost vanished within a rather shapeless mass of convection. Further weakening is expected as sea temps fall further and shear remains high.