Major Hurricane Dora

[Cookie]

Rapidly fell apart looks like someone burst a balloon!

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011

200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DORA HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT...IN

ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KT

FROM TAFB/SAB. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST PASSED THROUGH

THE CENTER OF DORA A FEW MINUTES AGO...AND WILL BE IN THE STORM FOR

ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETED ENOUGH OF THE PATTERN

TO ESTABLISH WHETHER DORA IS STILL A HURRICANE.

THE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS.

WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS

EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DORA IS FORECAST. DORA SHOULD

WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS...AND

COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS

LIKELY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF BAJA.

AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR

SO. THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO BEND DORA...OR OR ITS

REMNANTS...TOWARD BAJA DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE

RIDGE...WHILE OTHERS BASICALLY CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD AN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE FOR THIS

STORM...AND SINCE THESE MODELS KEEP DORA AWAY FROM THE

COAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A

NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.8N 109.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Somerset Squall]

That's a good analogy Cookie :lol:

Dora is weakening at a quicker rate than indicated by the NHC, with intensity falling to 45kts. There is little or no convection near the LLC, so Dora is probably on her last legs.

[Cookie]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011

800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...DORA LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER COLD PACIFIC WATERS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.5N 113.4W

ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. DORA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD

TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AND THEN TO

DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER

THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has eased over Dora, but the storm is moving over waters of 21-22C. Despite this, Dora is managing to fire convection near the centre, and this convection has managed to persist to keep Dora a 35kt tropical storm. Sea temps will continue to fall on the northwesterly heading, so Dora should de-generate into a remnant low soon.

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Dora has gone!