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Typhoon Nock-ten


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The tenth tropical depression of the so far active 2011 season in the West Pacific has formed just east of the Philippines. Intensity is 25kts. The depression is building convection over the centre and formative banding is evident. Shear is low, waters are around 30C and equatorward outflow is good. Poleward outflow is expected to improve too as the trough impinging on the system eases away from 10W. These factors should allow intensification over the next few days, and 10W could become a typhoon dependant on track. Current track forecast suggests north-northwesterly motion into a weakness in the subtropical steering ridge to the north, followed by a more westward heading towards China after scraping Luzon. If 10W deviates westwards in the next day or so, the cyclone will run into Luzon and not have time to intensify much. The more easterly the track, the less interaction with Luzon and therefore more strengthening can occur. JTWC predict a peak of 55kts, which I think possibly might be a touch low given the favourable environment ahead for 10W. We shall see. Both Luzon and southeastern China need to closely watch 10W over the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

10W has intensified modestly to 30kts this afternoon. Convection is deepest in the southern quadrant of the depression due to troughing impinging on the northern quadrant. However, the trough will fill and ease away allowing poleward outflow to improve. This will allow some intensification through the next day or two. Track forecast has shifted westwards due to the ridge re-strengthening earlier than previously expected. This means 10W will cross Luzon instead of remaining over water. Therefore, JTWC only expect a 50kt peak in intensity with very little recovery before a second landfall near Hong Kong, China.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Could be an interesting track on this one, defiantly to be kept an eye on!

Agreed. 10W is not doing as forecast and is heading towards the west-northwest. This changes things entirely. 10W now does not have long over water, but could still strengthen into a tropical storm prior to landfall in Luzon. 10W will spend significantly more time over Luzon than originally forecast, which means the LLC will significantly weaken. The more westerly heading instead gives 10W more time over the South China sea, and also means that Hong Kong will now likely miss a landfall, with 10W passing to the south. This now puts Hainan Island into the frame for a landfall from 10W. 10W may take time to recover in the South China sea from the interaction with the rugged terrain of Luzon, but will probably reach it's peak before approaching Hainan Island.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

10W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nock-ten, with intensity rising to 45kts. Convection has become more centralised, and banding more prominant as poleward outflow improves. Nock-ten is not far away from it's first landfall. Nock-ten will weaken over southern Luzon before emerging on the South China sea. Here, conditions are expected to be favourable for some steady re-intensification. Current tracking then suggests a second landfall on Hainan Island. Once more, some weakening will occur here before Nock-ten emerges over the Gulf Of Tonkin, breifly restrengthens before making a third landfall over northern Vietnam. Let's hope Nock-ten doesn't become any stronger than the predicted 50kts, because this storm looks set to affect a lot of people.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nock-ten has strengthened further to 55kts. An eye is beginning to form, but Nock-ten probably doesn't have enough time to become a typhoon before landfall on Luzon in about 12hrs time.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

AVN_FILIPINEVAC_734797f.jpg

Millions of people in the Philippines were Wednesday bracing for a ferocious tropical storm that has already claimed 14 lives and submerged vast tracts of land in more remote parts of the country. Rescuers pull an inflatable boat as they evacuate residents in Legazpi City, Albay province, south of Manila on July 26, 2011, as heavy rains brought about by torpical storm Nock-ten hit the province.

Nock-ten was expected to hit the heavily populated central section of the main Luzon island at 1:00pm (0500 GMT), then dump heavy rain there for about a day before blowing out into the South China Sea, the state weather service said. The storm hit the coastal provinces of Albay and Camarines Sur on southern Luzon on Tuesday, forcing 645,000 people to flee their flooded homes, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council chief Benito Ramos told AFP.

"Those two provinces are underwater," he said. The government is waiting for the skies to clear and the seas to calm down before sending emergency supplies by air and water to those provinces, according to Ramos. "We can't use the army trucks because the roads are flooded," he said. The council said dozens of flights had been cancelled because of the storm. Ramos said 14 people had been confirmed killed so far, with most of the fatalities in the coastal regions.

More than eight million people live across the central plains of Luzon, where Nock-ten is forecast to strike on Wednesday. Manila, the sprawling capital of more than 12 million people lies about 100 kilometres (60 miles) to the south of Nock-ten's direct path, and schools were closed across the city on Wednesday as it prepared for heavy rains. An average of 20 storms and typhoons, some of them deadly, hit the Philippines every year. Storms killed 48 people on Luzon in May and June.

Unusually heavy rains also killed 42 people last month in the country's south, an area that is normally spared typhoons and storms.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/249034/tropical-storm-kills-20-in-philippines

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14293229

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thanks for the information Coast.

Nock-ten became a 65kt, category 1 typhoon prior to landfall in the early hours of this morning. The eye became better defined prior to crossing the coast. Nock-ten has weakened to 55kts over Luzon. The storm should emerge over the South China sea later today and is expected to become a minimal typhoon again before landfalling Hainan Island. Strong ridging to the north will enforce a generally westward track for the remainder of Nock-ten's lifetime.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nock-ten weakened to 50kts over land, but do I detect an eye reforming as the storm edges offshore? Nock-ten has survived very well over rugged terrain and I think the storm could be quite quick to re-intensify over the South China sea.

post-1820-0-01017000-1311794793_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nock-ten has re-intensified slightly to 55kts. Convection is gradually increasing near the re-consolidating LLC. Nock-ten could become a typhoon again prior to landfall on Hainan Island. Weakening will occur over land, but another bout of re-intensification is expected over the Gulf Of Tonkin before the storm makes it's third landfall in northern Vietnam.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Latest death toll at 35, with many more missing:

http://www.earthweek.com/2011/ew110729/ew110729e.html

Nock-ten made it's second landfall this afternoon, this time on Hainan Island. Some intense rains and strong winds are battering Hainan at present. Intensity has fallen to 40kts, but Nock-ten maintains some very deep convection. Nock-ten should re-intensify over the Gulf Of Tonkin before it's third landfall in Northern Vietnam. More flooding and possible deaths are likely here unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nock-ten intensified to 45kts prior to landfalling northern Vietnam. The storm is now moving inland and should gradually dissipate.

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