Tropical Storm Emily

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91L has become TS Emily with 35kt winds.

Lots of watches and warnings out for the Caribbean

TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011

730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS

ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA

ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE

ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE

* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA

* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36

HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Some gradual strengthening is expected until a possible landfall on the Dominican Republic on the west-northwest to northwest track. Weakening is expected over rugged terrain, and Emily's future after hitting Hispaniola is uncertain. The less time Emily spends over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, the stronger Emily could be if it approaches Florida as per the current track forecast. However, the track forecast in uncertain, and this makes the intensity forecast very difficult too.

Edited August 1, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Kiewii]

I do hope it doesn't turn into a Hurricane.

[Alex95]

Me too, especially as I'm in Orlando at the moment!

[Iceberg]

Florida is certainly in the cone, Miami probably more than Orlando though.The cluster guidance though is for it to be a little bit off shore Florida, depending on the size of her by then it would only produce some rain for central Florida.

However we have the huge amount of uncertainty.

Firstly NHC are not too sure where the centre is, my gut feeling is that the system has spawned several LLCC through the last 48 hrs and it was simply that Recon stumbled across this LLCC with a well defined west wind component. What we seem to be seeing and what we saw when the system seemed to split in 2 on Sunday was an LLCC forming and then being pulled quickly westward under strong surface winds, the main convection with upper and mid circulation moved much more slowly i.e it decoupled, however very quickly a new LLCC formed under the mid circulation.

We could be seeing this again this morning with old centre on the far west of the convective blob and the convective blob showing signs of mid to high circulation.

We sometimes get these kind of systems that keep decoupling and in all honesty they never seem to becoming fully stacked, Emily could well be one of these so won't ever reach hurricane status no matter what the models are showing.

Secondly we have the strength of the Emily, the globals are not too keen on any strengthening now, HWRF still takes her to a hurricane and so do the other tropical models, the strength of Emily will determine how easily she is pulled along by the generic steering winds and any strengthening is still very unknown.

Thirdly we have interaction with land. Tiny changes in track will determine whether she goes over the mountains of DR or just skirts the coast, equally the spine range of Cuba. If she spends 12 hrs over mountainous land then it will certainly rip her to bits,meaning she has to start from stratch again before reaching Florida, something she has shown she is not good at.

Finally we have the strength of the ridge which is causing the re-curve, the models still do not have a very good handle of this IMO, ECM has been keen on a weaker ridge meaning more re-curve into the atlantic, GFS a weaker one, however none of them has much consistence, i.e the ECM released 30 mins ago hinted more at a Florida coastal path due to the stronger ridge at T120.

So there is still lots and lots of uncertainty over Emily, much more than normal.

Current tracks are below.

Edited August 2, 2011 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Here is the current Emily and her location according to NHC.

[Coast]

[Iceberg]

Nhc have updated and freely admit they don't know where the centre is and so are going with where they originally thought but with little confidence until recon go in at lunch time (if recon go in due to the ongoing technical issues)

[Gray-Wolf]

Seeing as the 'remnants' appeared on the mods runs I've been watching her develop (just to see if she can help 'pattern break' our stuck weather!) and can't rule out a track south of Cuba and into the Gulf?

It may come into west Florida or it may carry on to the Gulf coast/panhandle. Probs are that any longer over open,warm water will help her make it up to a cat3 before landfall and not the cat1 currently being modelled.

[Kiewii]

So we are saying that it could make landfall in South East Florida as a weak Cat 1 hurricane or strong Tropical Storm?

[Iceberg]

Yes a possibility

[Iceberg]

Emily could be undergoing some rather rapid strengthening IMo

"FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS

BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION."

NHC have put the above which indicates as expected the LLCC has reformed in the middles of the CDO, Game On.....

[Iceberg]

A serious looking TS now with a good CDO, banding and evidence of inflow and outflow.

Emily is getting tighter.

[Paranoid]

Certainly improving on the satellite loops.

Vis: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[Iceberg]

Recon have recently gone in and quickly found believable 45kt surface winds so Emily is definately strengthening

[Paranoid]

The latest advisory puts her at 45mph, but if you say that there are reliable 45kt winds being found by recon then that might be a little conservative.

[mezzacyclone]

from the latest/last Hunter recon:

MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 17:35:10Z

So apart from dry air sectors to the North and NorthWest then it`s all about landfall interaction but although this has shrunk cyclones in the past it has also been known to pull storms together for the brief time spent over land where they bomb as soon as they cross back to open waters?

Correct me if i`m mistaken here please chaps?

Concerns for Dom Rep and Haiti nonetheless but if the track stays as projected I offer that Emily will not gain any more than a Cat1 and once it clears the Bahamas then a mere TD?

But what do I know

[Paranoid]

As long as the rainfall amounts aren't too high Haiti and the Dominican Republic shouldn't be too badly affected by Emily.

[Cookie]

1 dead already

martinique

[Somerset Squall]

Sometimes cyclones can strengthen over land Mezza, but only if over land briefly. The rugged terrain of Hispaniola will take a lot out of Emily that's for sure, which is why NHC take Emily back down to TD strength before re-emerging over water to the north. It's possible Emily won't survive at all- depends on what angle Emily decides to run across the country.

Intensity now at 45kts, pressure still rather high at 1005mb. Though winds have increased, NHC comment Emily's inner core is still not organised.

Not good at all Cookie, I hope this isn't a disaster to Hispaniola. DR and Haiti are particularly vunerable to TC's.

Edited August 2, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Iceberg]

. What we seem to be seeing and what we saw when the system seemed to split in 2 on Sunday was an LLCC forming and then being pulled quickly westward under strong surface winds, the main convection with upper and mid circulation moved much more slowly i.e it decoupled, however very quickly a new LLCC formed under the mid circulation.

We could be seeing this again this morning with old centre on the far west of the convective blob and the convective blob showing signs of mid to high circulation.

We sometimes get these kind of systems that keep decoupling and in all honesty they never seem to becoming fully stacked, Emily could well be one of these so won't ever reach hurricane status no matter what the models are showing.

Well it certainly seems to be her main weakness, she has decoupled again with the LLCC drifting along the NHC track and the main convective CDO with the mid to high circulation going very slowly just south of west. Due to this the LLCC is totally exposed, given this Emily is barely a TS atm.

We have a few options now.

Will the convection fire off around the LLCC again ?

Will a new LLCC form in the convective mass/CDO ?

Will she does slowly disappear over the next 48 hrs ?

She obviously had a lot of mid level verticle shear which ever really stopped her from becoming fully stacked.

[Coast]

Blimey, I wondered what happened to our old Astra estate all those years ago!

[summer blizzard]

Emily reorganised however is still not playing ball.

Models are forecasting a WNW track right now becoming ever more north.

Emily however is still going directly west.

Two options are becoming likely..

1) Emily makes the turn late, misses Haiti, hits Cuba and then hits Florida. Weak, but very bad in terms of rain.

2) Emily stays west, tells the ridge where to go and heads for the GOM (a possibility raised by the NHC). If this occurs, then in light shear we have a powerful hurricane (Emily 05?).

[Coast]

Haiti seems favourite:

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti - Thousands of earthquake homeless and other poor Haitians waited nervously in flimsy shanties and tents as Tropical Storm Emily swirled offshore early Thursday, threatening to bring dangerous rains. Strong winds whipped through palm trees and some rain was already falling on southern Haiti.

Forecasters predicted the storm would make landfall on Haiti's southern peninsula after dawn and dump torrential rains across a country where more than 600,000 people still live without shelter after last year's earthquake.

"If any storm comes, we meet our demise," said Renel Joseph, a 57-year-old resident of Cite Soleil, a seaside shantytown of Haiti's capital. David Preux, head of mission for the International Organization for Migration in the southern city of Jacmel, said that he expected conditions to worsen during the night. "The problem is when people wait until the last minute to evacuate," Preux said. The storm's forward motion slowed Wednesday night and it appeared likely to skirt the southern tip of the Dominican Republic, which shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti. Emily had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

Dominican authorities kept a tropical storm warning in effect for the southwestern coast but ended an alert Wednesday night from Cabo Francis Viejo southeastward to Cabo Engano. Although the center of the storm seemed likely to miss most of the island, intense rain still posed a threat to both nations, said Diana Goeller, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The countries are divided by a range of high mountains. "This storm has a lot of heavy rainfall with it," Goeller told The Associated Press. "So in those mountainous areas, there could be very dangerous, life-threatening mudslides or flash floods."

John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist with the hurricane center, said up to 20 inches of rain was possible in isolated high-elevation areas. That is enough to cause serious problems in a country prone to catastrophic flooding. Michel Davison of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the storm earlier dropped up to 10 inches of rain in parts of Puerto Rico, though its center never got within 100 miles of the island. Francois Prophete, who was shoring up the corrugated-metal roof of his one-room cinder block home in the hills southeast of Port-au-Prince, said most people had few options in a nation where the vast majority are desperately poor. "We can't afford to do much," he said.

Local authorities urged people to conserve food and safeguard their belongings.

An unknown number of people left flood-prone areas to stay with relatives and friends, said Emmanuelle Schneider, a spokeswoman for the United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. There had been no government-organized evacuations by late Wednesday, she added. "There will be an official evacuation when there's flooding," Schneider said. There was reason for concern. A slow-moving storm in June triggered mudslides and floods in Haiti and killed at least 28 people. And widespread poverty makes it difficult for people to take even the most basic precautions.

Joceline Alcide stashed her two kids' birth certificates and school papers in little plastic bags that aid groups handed out. It was her only means to protect herself. "There really isn't much more we can do. We just got these bags," the 39-year-old Alcide said, standing outside her teepee-like tarp shelter.

The National Hurricane Center said the storm was heading west at 5 mph late Wednesday, but was expected to speed up and turn toward the northwest. The storm was about 135 miles southeast of Port-au-Prince.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/04/501364/main20087912.shtml

[Ladyofthestorm]

1 dead already

martinique

Look at the steepness of the slopes behind the cars.

[Iceberg]

First thing to say is how Emily has not been well predicted by anybody or anything, including the NHC, models and ALL pundits, it has not been helped by Failures on almost every aircraft recon mission (The last mission has to quit half way through) and failures of radar at PR etc.

Below is where the current location of the LLCC (low level cloud circulation) is according to the NHC at 10AM BST on their latest update.

It's now pretty well under the convective CDO, but considerably further south and west of where it was progged to be 24 hrs ago. It now looks like it will miss all but a few strips of land, assuming the NHC course is correct.

Yesterday the LLCC speed up and totally left the CDO behind, however it then stopped allowing the CDO to spread up and over the centre as it drifted westwards, with come convective cover it was then able to expand.

Strengthen and pressure are still pretty poor for a TS, but not surprising given all of the above.

In all honesty nobody knows where this storm will be in 5 days time, whether it will be a hurricane or dead, hit New Orleans or Fish out in the atlantic. MY gut still tells me a close hit near Miami after the system manages just about to avoid all serious land in between.

Edited August 4, 2011 by Iceberg