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6th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecasts, Discussion And Reports


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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Is it me or do these convective events recently have a nack for sneaking up on us at the last minute. Maybe it's just me being proccupied with events over in the Caribbean concerning ex-TS Emily. But we went from weds/thur's events and the charts wasn't showing anything significant until next weekend. Now GFS has today as a main contender for thundery rain & possible serious flooding concerns.

I see its a SSL developing out over Cumbria and Southern Scotland, but just its development in terms of model projection from +72hr out is somewhat disconcerning.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I've maintained it always that you're more likely to see something when you're not expecting, rather than when you're sitting staring at a radar/satellite hoping for things to.

Things are starting to kick off up north earlier than I expected - some really quite rapid convection occurring and some really quite heavy rain so early in the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Estofex latest forecast. :)

SYNOPSIS

Upstream of a broad ridge over eastern Europe, a trough moves into western Europe. A trough/vorticity maximum initially located to the southwest of Ireland is expected across the southern North Sea on Sunday morning.

As good a place to start as any! Morning all.

post-6667-0-12267800-1312615639.png

UKASF:

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Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 18:58 Friday, 5th August 2011

Valid: 00:00 Saturday, 6th August 2011 - 23:59 Saturday, 6th August 2011

MDT: S + E Ireland

SLGT: N + E England, Borders, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Wales, SW England, West Country

Synopsis:

A large, elongated, vertically-stacked and multi-centred upper low becomes established across the British Isles on Saturday. Convection will be widespread, with a few thunderstorms expected.

Discussion:

Beneath the upper low, lowering geopotential heights and a cold pool will overspread the country, with T500's as low as -25C, steepening lapse rates. Diurnal heating will aid convection development, with as much as ~600 J/kg CAPE available. Consequently, showers will become widespread across Ireland and western Britain, and with ELT's as low as -30C over Ireland, thunder and lightning is likely in quite a few showers.

DLS of up to 50kts is forecast over Wales and W England during the day, which is likely to help organise the convection. However, relatively weaker DLS (less than 20kts) is likely across Ireland, and this will slowly spread eastwards into Wales by evening. Meagre LLS will preclude a tornado risk. Given the cold mid levels, small hail is likely in some of the showers, particularly over Ireland. Concern exists that excessive cloud cover may inhibit convection, particularly over Ireland. Strong steering winds will mean any showers that do develop will move fairly quickly, but much lighter upper level winds over Ireland, particularly the W, will allow slow-moving showers and local thunderstorms to exist. Showers that do develop will continue well into the evening, becoming mostly confined to coastal parts where the risk of lightning continues to exist.

A developing trough feature is also forecast to move northwards across England, into southern Scotland during the forecast period. Whilst high precipitation totals are likely over the Borders/NE England, the lack of any other severe conditions prevent us from issuing a SVR threat level. There are indications that there may be an increase in convection along this feature during the afternoon and early evening, but ELT's of only -20C and excessive cloud cover, combined with lower surface temperatures, are likely to mean that lightning, if any, will be quite isolated in nature.

I think the highlighted text in the forecast above is the headline for today

TORRO and SkyWarn have no current alerts or watches

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_30.gif

21st OWS MetO interpretation shows something in the approaches:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_12_12Z.png

That may be with us overnight:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_30_12Z.png

Interesting to see what the aviation weather from WAFC Washington shows in the Atlantic:

PGNE14_CL.gif

WAFC London has a whole heap of stuff on its way - is it just rain?

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The KO index taken on its own would be keeping me radar watching at the end of the afternoon:

36_19.gif

But other ingredients are just not there;

36_24.gif

A little bit of CAPE for Northern Ireland shortly:

cape.curr.1000lst.d2.png

Then nothing all day except for a tad in the North East and some creeping into RoI later:

cape.curr.1400lst.d2.png

cape.curr.1800lst.d2.png

gfs_icape_eur18.png

gfs_layer_eur18.png

Convective rain in RoI and the NE:

gfs_kili_eur18.png

gfs_lfc_eur18.png

gfs_stp_eur18.png

So it looks like Southern Ireland may have a slim chance followed by a slimmer chance to the NE and Scotland but don't hold your breath! I'll have a look what the next couple of days potential is looking like on the general thread.

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post-6667-0-88664100-1312615873_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-82421700-1312616493_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Cheers Coast. Things starting to crank up here with some heavy rainfall and big raindrops giving the village a rude awakening this morning, radar shows for some more development coming within the hour yet still and just the start of whats to be an expected active 24 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Pity Me, Durham
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Thunder, Snow, Thundersnow, Hail, Sunshine, Rainbows
  • Location: Pity Me, Durham

Got woken up by a torrential downpour, I am really surprised that there was no thunder, it was that heavy.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Just absolutely chucked it down here, most of it has gone east of my location, not heard any thunder from it though.

May have just heard a distant rumble.

Edited by Dazmaster75
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

A beefy clump of showers looks like they are heading their way in towards the SW. Nothing electrical detected within it though yet, but it looks like pretty heavy rain as it approaches Cornwall/Devon.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Just absolutely chucked it down here, most of it has gone east of my location, not heard any thunder from it though.

May have just heard a distant rumble.

Heavy rain and lightning in Stockport area recently, looking on the radar it's nice to see the usual suspects collecting their daily downpours.............not. Pretty much given up on expecting a storm here now in summer 2011. Not one has been registered throughout June, July and up until now, I believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Pouring down here now, no lightning or thunder but very heavy all the same, not been raining that long and there's already huge puddles everywhere, in fact it could b mistaken for winter! lol

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Literally torrential now and has been for the last 10 mins flash flooding all over this is unreal. Thunderstorm rain without the storm!

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

take a video/picture

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

take a video/picture

What of a council estate with flooded pavements and burst drains etc lol In all probability the drainage system here isn't the best which isn't helping I don't have the facility where I am this morning, seriously though rain was unreal for a time the type you get when you have a storm and it just floods everywhere, it has just started to die back to heavy now but utterly miserable day tbh wouldn't mind if there were flashes of lightning and thunder!! Forecasts are saying thunder etc but I doubt I will hear some here !

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Plenty of strikes showing up west of york at the moment,could be some action for cumbria as well.

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

not lightning watching but tonight there may be a good chance of a seeing the AURORA cloud permitting as there is a major geomagnetic storm hitting earth at the moment its a class G2+ and is expected to ramp up to a class G3+

Geomagnetic Storm Effects

G2 (Moderate)

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).

G3 (Strong)

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some

protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may

increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation

problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.).

onto todays non geomagnetic storms

Latest from my lightning detector

post-9919-0-72919300-1312625217_thumb.jp

Edited by gpspete
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Load of sferics popping up north of Manchester and quite a few storm reports around the NW of England. Looks like this could be an active day for some storm starved peeps!

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I'm hoping the sun will come out later for our BBQ!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Convective / Storm forecast - Issued 06/08/2011 11:00

post-1052-0-20854700-1312626464_thumb.jp

Valid: 06/08/2011 11:00 - 07/08/2011 06:00

Headline: ...THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

A large upper low to the W of the UK is driving a deeply cyclonic SW flow across the UK, unstable across Nern and Wern areas. At 12z Sat, an area of low pressure is expected to develop over N England, drifting N to be near SE Scotland by 00z, further south sets of troughs will move east across Ireland, England and Wales.

... N ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, SW ENGLAND ...

Devloping low over N England this morning, in the left exit of SW'erly jet is producing clusters of thunderstorms already this morning over parts of N England - as moist maritime airmass is forced to rise. Storms may continue across parts of N England this afternoon - 30-40 knts of vertical shear for a time will lead to some organisation of storms bringing a risk of localised flooding, hail and gusty winds. Models also indicate that instability/CAPE will extend further SW across parts of the Midlands, Wales and SW England this afternoon - as lapse rates steepen from the west and brighter skies lead to insolation - so scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are likely here too.

... IRELAND/N IRELAND ...

Upper low with its associated colder air alot will overspread Eire this afternoon - with airmass characterised by steep low-level lapse rates - this will lead to scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms to develop aided by insolation. Vertical shear will be fairly weak, so no severe weather is anticipated, though storms maybe accompanied by hail, gusty winds and torrential rain.

Also can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Im glad to see im in the risk zone for a change today! Though it is cloudy at the moment, I really hope to see something as in the last 2 years I have not had anything more than a few flashes and rumbles! Looking good though for today, good luck everyone :)

Meto also say this for wales tomorrow:

Sunday:

Showers throughout the day, these heavy and thundery at times. Chance of more persistent rain in west and southwest parts for a time. Remaining windy. Maximum temperature 19 °C.

Also glad to see they have a *Thunderstorm* symbol for my location, which I thought I would never see lol

Edited by DeepSnow
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

It looks like the North East is really getting a battering up there :/

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

In the caravan now looking forward to a storm later I am in the risk box today ya

do excuse my spelling I'm using a phone lol

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Lucky Northerners AGAIN! :lol:

Whenever we are predicted Thundery rain its Just rain down here.

However Cape forecast has been upgraded for here today. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

It looks like the North East is really getting a battering up there :/

No heavy rain at all yet in Darlington, we've had rain but it's dry at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

I think those wanting these storms today will be counting their blessings they didn't see any, given the axis this SSL is going to take in the next 12hr, pivoting around Cumbria and stalling practically to near where it is now. Were going to see many households, businesses and the like being flooded (with reports of this already happening) so now is a case of warning those in a floodwatch area to start moving things to a higher level, if only for precautionary reasons. Because this has chaos written all over it.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Still plenty of the day left, but i don't like it how the showers heading my way from the SW are weakening as they approach Cornwall & Devon. Hopefully things start to kick off later. Skys are clearing here now after a greyish morning and now bubbly cumulus clouds are forming.

Also agree with Snow_Joke though...there is potential for a lot of flooding in some areas which isn't good.

Edited by Bugganuts
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