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7th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Report

Staffordshire

By Staffordshire
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Its actually looking good for here for ONCE this year..

Yep, it going to be called Jane Louise day - in honour of her coming out of the NS Club!!! :whistling:

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted (edited)

It does look really promising today, already had some beefy showers.

The fact that the sun keeps coming out instead of continuous cloud cover is a good sign.

Edited by SteveB
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Blimey, quite a lot could happen!!

Got some good sunny spells here, sky littered with dead anvils. Notable WSW breeze!

Wouldn't want to second guess the SE chances but concerning times for Scotland and exciting for the SW!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

Activity out to sea in the west is awesome!

Its getting bigger, bigger , bigger and bigger again!

The SAT loop can see some huge CB's out to sea already, Radar is showing some lovely echos.

This afternoon should hopefully be very exciting! Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark

Event got sferics! and its only half ten! Exclamation mark Exclamation mark

Edited by Lynxus
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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Activity out to sea in the west is awesome!

Its getting bigger, bigger , bigger and bigger again!

The SAT loop can see some huge CB's out to sea already, Radar is showing some lovely echos.

This afternoon should hopefully be very exciting! Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark Exclamation mark

Event got sferics! and its only half ten! Exclamation mark Exclamation mark

Got a big clump coming up the channel, should be with me in the next 10-15mins, still not thundery, but looks like a lot of rain.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Hoping this means i can finally get out the NSC :p It looks like its about to chuck it down very dark clouds approaching from my SW.

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Hoping this means i can finally get out the NSC :p It looks like its about to chuck it down very dark clouds approaching from my SW.

I bought a video camara in 2006 for the sole purpose of filming storms, I have never used it :nonono: Hoping I can finally capture some storms today.

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Dom W Apprentice

Dom W

Posted
  • Location: Pity Me, Durham
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Thunder, Snow, Thundersnow, Hail, Sunshine, Rainbows
  • Location: Pity Me, Durham
Posted (edited)

Looks like that rain that is in Scotland is returning. Quite breezy and cloudy today in the north east.

Edited by Dommy
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Ok dilemma. I have the day free, a full tank of petrol and a need to see a good storm. Do I or don't I make the 300-400 mile trip to head SW?

One problem is I headed south on Weds just to miss a storm in my local area. I have looked at the charts and I can see a good chance around Cheshire eastward to Lincolnshire this afternoon with a marked area of convergence. However nobody is talking about this area.

My question is am I seeing things wrong? Am I wiser to head towards the Bristol area? Help pleeeease!!!

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Sat24 seems to be picking up lightning now and again in that clump of cloud sat south of Ireland, currently moving towards SW england. Rain Radar also showing im about to get drenched with the stuff in the Bristol Channel.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Got some good sunny spells here, sky littered with dead anvils. Notable WSW breeze!

Wouldn't want to second guess the SE chances but concerning times for Scotland and exciting for the SW!

image_b_eu.png?1312710179&n=1312710196305

Had some weak convection out to sea at 5.30/6.00 this morning but now the SW wind has kicked in it's just general muck.

I'm hoping that any (?) action in the SW doesn't die out before it gets further up The Channel and even more that it gets here during the hours of darkness!

gfs_icape_eur24.png

gfs_layer_eur24.png

gfs_omega_eur24.png

gfs_lapse_eur24.png

gfs_lapse2_eur24.png

gfs_pw_eur24.png

Looks like there could be some blurry eyes in the morning!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

That's what Im thinking Coast!!

GFS not least has been pointing to some opportunity for late convection for a few days now. Convection now is giving it a good go by the looks of it but lacklustre in equal measure.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Met office radar for precipitation forecast shows Cornwall and Devon getting blasted this afternoon with constant heavy downpours. Only time will tell if these include some thunderstorms!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Where's Jane today?.....Is she still camping?....If so Jane, pack your bags and get back to Tewkesbury pronto as I reckon it's right in the firing line today! :D

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

For the first time today the showers are loosing their intensity as the move up the Bristol channel.

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Had a lot of heavy showers thismorning, 13.5mm so far! Looks like it could be a good day for South West England and South Wales?

What time could be expect any thundery activity to start?

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

For the first time today the showers are loosing their intensity as the move up the Bristol channel.

Hopefully when the predicted cape/li values increase this afternoon it might help keep its intensity rather than just peter out into nothing by the time it reaches here..

Still keeping a close eye on the mass of cloud approaching us at the front edge of the low pressure centre. Some lightning is still being picked up in that.

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

Hopefully when the predicted cape/li values increase this afternoon it might help keep its intensity rather than just peter out into nothing by the time it reaches here..

Still keeping a close eye on the mass of cloud approaching us at the front edge of the low pressure centre. Some lightning is still being picked up in that.

It would be nice if someone could let us know if its still all going to plan, Really could do with seeing some storms later.

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Author
Posted

Keithey joe has posted this over at Met monkey (cheif forecaster) A complex area of low pressure will lead to enhanced cooling in the upper levels and combined with some surface heating today should be enough to produce instability in the region of 300-600j/kg of CAPE.  Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop today, almost anywhere across the highlighted areas.  Focus will be towards the W as a developing short-wave within the baroclinic zone is forecast to continue to develop and move towards SW England, Devon, Cornwall and parts of Somesert/Dorset and the West Country later this afternoon and evening.  This feature will bring about increase levels of PVA and a VORTMAX is forecast to translate close to Weymouth towards evening time.  Due to the short-wave advancement and sufficient energy within the flow, a few thunderstorms are confidently forecast in SW England thus a MODERATE threat has been assigned.  Another focus area where NAE, ECM and GFS guidance blends consistency well with strong PVA placement is immediately around Cheshire/NW Midlands region/Staffordshire - thus a 25% SLIGHT risk has been assigned.  Wind shear will not be mentioned in this analysis because it is too low to suggest any severe threat.  Storms will be locally very intense and torrential however with a risk of hail, locally frequent lightning is a possibility due to low EL below -30, however SFC convergence will not be in place - hence the more widespread 25% risk not being extended beyond areas of strongest PVA.  Main threat will be very gusty winds, hail and localised flash flooding.

http://postimage.org/image/2hksgjrgk/

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

Cloudy with boring light rain here. No thundery weather expected for the Midlands now thanks to a very slow moving occlusion over us. Yet another day of potential down the drain!

Move out of the way occlusion! :lol:

Edited by Blizzards
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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

I'm spending late afternoon in North London.

It really could go either way today.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

I mentioned this potential across Cheshire and into the NW Midlands in my post earlier. There has been a lot of talk regarding storms in the south but I can see something in the area I, and now met monkey, have indicated also. Would be very interested to know peoples thoughts before I decide to invade more southern territories. Although I may now have left this too late!

Incidentally GFS precip charts indicate something in this area too.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

So far this morning I have had plenty of heavy showers. Nothing exciting though yet. Problem is as said already, it seems to lose its 'kick' once it starts travelling up the Bristol Channel. Is there an obvious reason for this that I'm missing? Happens all the time whenever there are these kind of set ups from the SW.

Edited by Bugganuts
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