7th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Report

[Chris K]

I've noticed that the storms that come up the channel weaken as the get to the narrowing just before Weston & Cardiff. Not sure why, maybe something to do with the Brecons the sea & the Mendips.

Anyway, looks like the best action is too the south & east.

Yea you're right it does do that. However there was shower over the Severn Crossings 10 mins ago that produced 5 rumbles of thunder for me as I live nearby them and seemed to get darker as it moved to my NE. It does look at the moment though that the main action is staying SE of Bristol travelling E/NE.

Is annoying though that literally within 15-30 minutes intense rainfall just seems to disappear off the radar as it enters the Severn Estuary.

Edited August 7, 2011 by Bugganuts

[SteveB]

On the edge again of another shower, this time passing to the south east.

Looks like its electric, but not seen or heard anything yet.

[Costa Del Fal]

Showers seem to be mostly dying out across the Midlands now. A good few hours left though.

[lewisosd]

Well all that stuff South is heading Eastwards my way. Lets hope it carries on and arrives here in the evening :lol:

[icbinb]

Pleasant surprise of a thunderstorm here in Reading. Lasted about half an hour. Saw a few flashes of lightning and heard some reasonably loud thunder.

[Raidan]

Yes can see the dark skies but no thunder or lightning just the rain,still time.

[Lynxus]

Showers seem to be mostly dying out across the Midlands now. A good few hours left though.

Never got started here

Seems like glos will go another year without anything again

[littlemissy]

the rain has started yet again -heavy too.No thunder as yet.

[IanR]

Yet again North Wales misses out on all the action.....although a few bold cumulus clouds and distant Cumulonimbus towards Ireland nothing has developed here. Summer seems to get worse and worse!

I remember sometime in the early eighties in late july there was a series of violent thunderstorms over north wales in the late evening, it was on the news about golf ball sized hail damaging crops etc

I could even see the lightning from here at night on the horizon and in the upper cloud tops as well, the lightning was every 4 or 5 seconds and watched it for hours like a crazy strobe light show . the storm eventually died before reaching here, but we got some averege type storms the next day,

Can you imagine that happening over now north wales , north west england , nah, neither can I

[Mesoscale]

had a heavy rain shower here earlier thats it.

Edited August 7, 2011 by Mesoscale

[Chris K]

The main electrical activity that the radar is picking up seems to be sticking further south just off the coast but with odd bits scattered inland across the SW. If it keeps its current path it doesnt look like it'll make much progress inland, except maybe for the South coast and maybe the South East later? Its a bit hard to tell because the centre of the low is quite quickly moving closer.

Any people with more 'expertise' able to give an opinion?

[Costa Del Fal]

Contrary to my earlier post there is a Thunderstorm just East of Birmingham now plus a few new showers developing to my SW now.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I remember sometime in the early eighties in late july there was a series of violent thunderstorms over north wales in the late evening, it was on the news about golf ball sized hail damaging crops etc

I could even see the lightning from here at night on the horizon and in the upper cloud tops as well, the lightning was every 4 or 5 seconds and watched it for hours like a crazy strobe light show . the storm eventually died before reaching here, but we got some averege type storms the next day,

Can you imagine that happening over now north wales , north west england , nah, neither can I

I for one can't imagine it at all. And I'm not just basing my opinion on the fact that this year has been so pathetically lacking in thunder. 2010 was barely any better with just one storm during the course of the whole year.

Whether this shockingly below average thundery activity is becoming the norm in this part of the UK, I have no idea, but something is afoot.

Edited August 7, 2011 by Carl43Wrexham

[Wet'n'Dry]

Another very heavy shower here, radio just picked up a strike but I fear it's going North of my location!

Edited August 7, 2011 by Wet'n'Dry

[lfcdude]

thunder and lightning in devizes wiltshire

[Chris K]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #042

ISSUED: 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH AUGUST 2011 (GJ/SM/DP)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTH WALES

SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

MIDLANDS (ALL REGIONS)

EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH UNTIL 0300UTC MONDAY 8TH AUGUST 2011

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UK WITH SURFACE CENTRE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN UK DURING THE EVENING GENERATING INTENSE CONVECTION

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS...WEAK TORNADOES...LIGHTNING...HAIL

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO ACROSS SOUTH WALES, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE THERE EXISTS A GOOD CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS WITH SOME SEVERITY, AS PER WATCH AREAS. AN UPPER COLD POOL OF -22C/500MB IS GENERATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE HAIL/LIGHTNING RISK IS ONLY MODEST THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR FUNNELS AND STRONG GUSTS AROUND SOUTHERN COASTS AND INLAND OF SUCH. FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARDS, A SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION MOVES INTO SOUTH WALES AND THE SOUTHWEST OF ENGLAND GENERATING SOME VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS AND A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT, INSPIRING HEAVY PRECIP CORES WITH RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY UP TO 30MM PER HOUR. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

[A.J]

Contrary to my earlier post there is a Thunderstorm just East of Birmingham now plus a few new showers developing to my SW now.

East of Brum?...bah! Thats foreign territory....lol.....fairly quiet across the west midlands atm, that's not to say though that things might change in the next hour or two

@ Bugganuts....thanks for the skywarn update...some interesting weather in the offing the next few hours

Edited August 7, 2011 by ajpoolshark

[Lynxus]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #042

ISSUED: 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH AUGUST 2011 (GJ/SM/DP)

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO ACROSS SOUTH WALES, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE THERE EXISTS A GOOD CHANCE OF ISOLATED

Yeah yeah

[Harry]

Wow!! What an exhilarating read

This is not meant to sound rude but are these chaps credible?

[Phelpsy]

everything skirting me just getting rain

[A.J]

Wow!! What an exhilarating read

This is not meant to sound rude but are these chaps credible?

Imo yes Harry, some well respected stormchasers frequent the skywarn forums & are desginated spotters (storm, not the train variety!...lol)

[Carl46Wrexham]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #042

ISSUED: 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH AUGUST 2011 (GJ/SM/DP)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTH WALES

SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

MIDLANDS (ALL REGIONS)

EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH UNTIL 0300UTC MONDAY 8TH AUGUST 2011

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UK WITH SURFACE CENTRE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN UK DURING THE EVENING GENERATING INTENSE CONVECTION

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS...WEAK TORNADOES...LIGHTNING...HAIL

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO ACROSS SOUTH WALES, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE THERE EXISTS A GOOD CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS WITH SOME SEVERITY, AS PER WATCH AREAS. AN UPPER COLD POOL OF -22C/500MB IS GENERATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE HAIL/LIGHTNING RISK IS ONLY MODEST THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR FUNNELS AND STRONG GUSTS AROUND SOUTHERN COASTS AND INLAND OF SUCH. FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARDS, A SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION MOVES INTO SOUTH WALES AND THE SOUTHWEST OF ENGLAND GENERATING SOME VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS AND A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT, INSPIRING HEAVY PRECIP CORES WITH RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY UP TO 30MM PER HOUR. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

GAME OVER for today then!...Oh what a surprise...........NOT!

[TheToastPeople]

I hope skywarn is right!! i just noticed that ESTOFEX has no forecast for today wtf??

[Evening thunder]

Hmm I wonder what do they consider to be 'Severe' then??

Just a couple normal quick showers since the single rumble earlier, with anything coming my way showing signs of weakening (surprise )

[UKSupercell]

Blimey! First "proper" storm of this summer (or 2011) in my book!

Still raining heavily persistently and just had about 5-10 flashes of lightning over the last 20 minutes. The thunder was about 1 second after the flashes too so it was nearly right overhead.

About bloody time.