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First sign of Winter


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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Mods you can decide if this is necessary smile.png

It's the old chestnut thread - counting down and predicting the first frost as the days wind down and the autumnal feeling sets upon us!

My go: -0.6C, Altnaharra (04 October) late frost, followed by a good few in November and December, and, of course, beyond!

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

One occured in June and July I think (somewhere in Scotland).

When does one year end and a new one begin?

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

We have already had our first frost in July when the temperature in Kinbrace went down to -0.8c. There may be a couple more frosts in isolated areas during September though I think our first widespread frost will happen sometime around mid October.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Ah right, let's just say from June 21 and pretend this thread is called 'Second Frost'.

Hehe.

How about the thread being called "When Will I Have my First Frost of 2011/2012".

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Id generally consider the first frost to be the one immediately after the thermal maximum, so in the case of my location - any time after 31st July.

Any in July would be a very late, 'last frost' to me as we are still on the upward slope in temperatures to high summer.

Either way, Ive never recorded an air frost before mid-October and it most commonly occurs in mid-November.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

-0.2C, Shap, Cumbria. September 24th.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Here, tonight- or at least before the end of September. With a record early frost 2011 might just escape the "most boring year ever" tag. Even 1998 and 2002 had there epic wet months, 2008 its record dull August (which 2011 won't quite beat I reckon), the snowless year of 1992 that fantastic May. The only other thing that can rescue it now is a December to rival 2010- and there's my numbers on the Euromillions tonight.

If anyone thinks April means 2011 should escape this label look at my sig.... 2007 absolutely murdered 2011 for sunshine round here.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Here, tonight- or at least before the end of September. With a record early frost 2011 might just escape the "most boring year ever" tag. Even 1998 and 2002 had there epic wet months, 2008 its record dull August (which 2011 won't quite beat I reckon), the snowless year of 1992 that fantastic May. The only other thing that can rescue it now is a December to rival 2010- and there's my numbers on the Euromillions tonight.

If anyone thinks April means 2011 should escape this label look at my sig.... 2007 absolutely murdered 2011 for sunshine round here.

Hmmm:

Jan 2011 - Some snow for Scotland and a big storm.

Feb 2011 - Very Mild, Spring arrives early

March 2011 - Quite potent cold spell for Scotland, Amazing snowfall in Highlands

Arpil 2011 - Record warmth and sunshine, Summer arrives early

May 2011 - Summer dissapears, first signs of autumn with epic storm.

June 2011 - The dullest I have ever seen.

July 2011 - The dullest for a while.

August 2011 - Very Heavy Rainfall in Scotland.

September 2011 - Indian Summer

October 2011 - Amazing storm, Record cold night and first snow.

November 2011 - Large storm, Big Freeze ending

December 2011 - Record Breaking Cold and snow

Not too bad but could be more interesting....

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Does look a tad nippy on Sunday 28th of August - GFS giving -2C 850's for S Highlands, and -3C for Shetlands, with a 1200m snow line in C Scotland, around 1100 in the highlands, still far away, but a good chance. GFS also gives 0C for the 29th morning in parts of S Scotland and the Highlands.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Does look a tad nippy on Sunday 28th of August - GFS giving -2C 850's for S Highlands, and -3C for Shetlands, with a 1200m snow line in C Scotland, around 1100 in the highlands, still far away, but a good chance. GFS also gives 0C for the 29th morning in parts of S Scotland and the Highlands.

Is now forecasting -1 I believe.

Looks a very good chance for a frost.

For me in Surrey, I am probably looking at the start of October. I am in the north downs though, in a valley with hills either side, should be a bit of a frost pocket I am hoping, has been down to 6c already this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Is now forecasting -1 I believe.

Looks a very good chance for a frost.

For me in Surrey, I am probably looking at the start of October. I am in the north downs though, in a valley with hills either side, should be a bit of a frost pocket I am hoping, has been down to 6c already this month.

Looking good soon for you then aswell - I also seem to recall parts of the North Downs receiving 60cm snow lying last winter.

On August the 30th last year we got down to 4.7C here, and 4.5C the day after (reaching 4.2C at Durham) as we cooled down extravagantly despite 20C highs - here's hoping some more :)

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Looking good soon for you then aswell - I also seem to recall parts of the North Downs receiving 60cm snow lying last winter.

On August the 30th last year we got down to 4.7C here, and 4.5C the day after (reaching 4.2C at Durham) as we cooled down extravagantly despite 20C highs - here's hoping some more smile.png

Yep.

Unfortunately I only moved here at the start of spring! :)

Hoping for a good winter this year though!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Yep.

Unfortunately I only moved here at the start of spring! smile.png

Hoping for a good winter this year though!

Just hope for some beasty easterlies and channel lows and you'll think you're in Lapland! :)

00Z downgrades potential, but still a good few days to go.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Scotland can obviously see frost all year round but for my location i think that we will see a frost in late October.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

12Z GFS gives good chances for Highland and Southern Upland frosts on the morning of the 27th, 28th and 29th - aswell as -1 to -2C 850's with a NNW flow, possibility for some wintry precip. in N Scotland and the Highlands.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

18 September 2005 was the earliest ground-frost for South Wales. I remember as it was the WRC weekend and camping out for photography pics meant I was shaking in the sleeping blanket at the same time as trying to keep the equipment from freezing over and becoming dew-dampened in the morning.

Any ridge's building in post-atlantic CFs would see a similar setup from mid-september as in 05.

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

I'm going to say Sunday 28th August at either Tulloch Bridge or Loch Glascarnoch.

Potentially some snow on the summits of the Aonach Mór range and the Cairngorms on the same day too.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

12Z GFS gives good chances for Highland and Southern Upland frosts on the morning of the 27th, 28th and 29th - aswell as -1 to -2C 850's with a NNW flow, possibility for some wintry precip. in N Scotland and the Highlands.

Can someone explain the 850's and what -1c and -2c 850's be at low level etc... It sounds promising.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Yes a very high chance of one or two frost prone highland locations think tummel bridge, altnaharra, aviemore the usual suspects recording a temp at or below 0 degrees Sunday morning. We will see some cool uppers and a slack pressure gradient with light winds.

Some sheltered spots of the southern uplands and north pennines/cumbria could see a ground frost with temps at 2 degrees.

We tend to record our first ground frost end sept/early oct, and our first air frost (temp below 0 degrees) usually third week of october.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Can someone explain the 850's and what -1c and -2c 850's be at low level etc... It sounds promising.

It really does all depend when it comes to stability and cloud and so on - but in this instance, on a clear night, with little wind:

1000-1400m: Slight air frost

700-1000m and in frost hollows; valleys: Heavy ground frost

300-700m: Chance of ground frost, roughly 5C

100-300m: Warmer, 5C and above

Sea Level: Roughly 7C, depending on circumstances.

Of course not all of the UK will get -1C 850's :)

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Yes a very high chance of one or two frost prone highland locations think tummel bridge, altnaharra, aviemore the usual suspects recording a temp at or below 0 degrees Sunday morning. We will see some cool uppers and a slack pressure gradient with light winds.

Some sheltered spots of the southern uplands and north pennines/cumbria could see a ground frost with temps at 2 degrees.

We tend to record our first ground frost end sept/early oct, and our first air frost (temp below 0 degrees) usually third week of october.

Do you mean Tulloch Bridge? If not, then I didn't know Tummel Bridge had a weather station!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Quick question - if the dewpoint is under 0C, will it definitely snow, regardless of 850's, dam levels, temperatures etc.? :)

First ground frost on Friday morning according to 18Z - enjoy!

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