22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Damp and dreary]

The Channel here looks threatening already - a big CB rolling in with mammatus. Heavy downpour imminent I think...looks good and earlier than forecast looking forward to later this evening.

Just my thoughts exactly SeeBee. Thought i would pop on here and see what everybody thought after seeing it go from sunshine to dark clouds in the space of half an hour. Dont think there will be any thunder until later but i dont think there was supposed to be any rain until later either. Looking foward to later today anyhow.

[Neilsouth]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

4am!

[Stuart]

Good Luck all down There

[Aaron]

Indeed. Looks like you in the South East will once again steal the storms, leaving the rest of us bone dry

Edited August 22, 2011 by aaron

[camiscool]

South east steal the storms ....? i havent had one all year and im in the south east :s

[Chris K]

Sounds like I'm just going to end up with a washout rather than anything more exciting, with the SE seeing the best potential for electrical activity...it was all looking good a day or two ago for me. Just hoping something does spread to our area...

[Harry]

Indeed. Looks like you in the South East will once again steal the storms, leaving the rest of us bone dry

Now you listen 'ere....I ain't add a propaa storm since abaat two faasand and nine innit (exc 28th June this year)....don't start this daan saaf gettin propaa storms raabbish

If they come off I'll be over the moon! But we've had so much disappointment in the last few years and in particular 2010!

This will be, again if it comes off, the first proper night time plume storm since June 2010 and even that was a pretty significant disappointment

Re Victor Meldrew's post, that 0400 MetO Invent rainfall run does look markedly like an MCS

Edited August 22, 2011 by Harry

[Damp and dreary]

Raining here already. Is this a sign that things are a little but further North than expected? If so thats surely a good thing for most involved (that want storms!)

[Harry]

Raining here already. Is this a sign that things are a little but further North than expected? If so thats surely a good thing for most involved (that want storms!)

My thoughts exactly, the further that sector of convective air moves North, the greater the risk for more people!

Just keep your eyes on the centre of the Low approaching the BoB...if that stays moving due North (or there abouts) then it looks a lot better! If it starts veering NE then so too will our storm risks

I notice Estofex still quiet.......that's the second time this year a plume type system involving the UK has been very late...I think on one occasion this year they didnt post a forecast at all which was most disappointing....

I'll have a punt at how I think it will look (emphasis - this is my attempt using the estofex map style...I've removed all reference to estofex as this is not their forecast)

Part of me is curious as to whether they may even issue the first level 3 of the year across C/N France...there does seem to be fair to decent risk of supercells here given the presence of sheer, very high CAPE/LI values, dry air intrusion around the low assisting chance of explosive convection and likely v high amounts of rainfall - has to be a high risk of large hail over France also.....I'm probably way off the beat but you never know.

Edited August 22, 2011 by Harry

[AWD]

Sounds like I'm just going to end up with a washout rather than anything more exciting, with the SE seeing the best potential for electrical activity...it was all looking good a day or two ago for me. Just hoping something does spread to our area...

According to Ian Fergusson it's just going to be rain, rain and more rain for us here!!

You never know though, just gotta hope!!

[Chris K]

Does anyone know if there is a good chance of seeing a decent thunderstorm in the Bristol area/W/SW england? At the moment the most intense stuff is forecasted over the SE. Guess will just have to watch that low as it approaches on the sat image.

[Chris K]

According to Ian Fergusson it's just going to be rain, rain and more rain for us here!!

You never know though, just gotta hope!!

Gah it was looking good yesterday/day before. Ah well will just have to wait and see!

[SteveB]

According to Ian Fergusson it's just going to be rain, rain and more rain for us here!!

You never know though, just gotta hope!!

I doubt we will even see that much rain, looks like we are on the edge of the main band as it pushes up from the south.

[DeepSnow]

From my selfish point of view it would be really nice if it were to hit further west so i could get something, june 2009 was the last time i got a thunderstorm

[Harry]

GRRRR!!!! Those charts posted by Coast earlier have updated and appear to show the stuff reaching slightly further north, but the highest storm risk shunted east!!!!

[Nights King]

I doubt we will even see that much rain, looks like we are on the edge of the main band as it pushes up from the south.

I have yet to see a thunder storm this year and it has been 3 years since one so I am hopeful that somerset may get a storm.

[chionomaniac]

My thoughts exactly, the further that sector of convective air moves North, the greater the risk for more people!

Just keep your eyes on the centre of the Low approaching the BoB...if that stays moving due North (or there abouts) then it looks a lot better! If it starts veering NE then so too will our storm risks

I notice Estofex still quiet.......that's the second time this year a plume type system involving the UK has been very late...I think on one occasion this year they didnt post a forecast at all which was most disappointing....

I'll have a punt at how I think it will look (emphasis - this is my attempt using the estofex map style...I've removed all reference to estofex as this is not their forecast)

Part of me is curious as to whether they may even issue the first level 3 of the year across C/N France...there does seem to be fair to decent risk of supercells here given the presence of sheer, very high CAPE/LI values, dry air intrusion around the low assisting chance of explosive convection and likely v high amounts of rainfall - has to be a high risk of large hail over France also.....I'm probably way off the beat but you never know.

Looks a very reasonable forecast for severe weather Harry. Already some significant storms in NW France and I wouldn't be surprised to see large hail there.

[Chris K]

Looks like the far SE could be hit by that mass that is in France at the moment if it keeps its current path? You could get a double dose of storms

Is a shame the Low seems to be taking a slight NE path than N so i'll probably be on the back edge with just rain tonight. Still hoping though for a decent storm..

[Neilsouth]

Indeed. Looks like you in the South East will once again steal the storms, leaving the rest of us bone dry

wow one small storm all year so far and even that was poor, yeh sure... The places that have had most big storms so far seem to be up towards the north east!

So far for the last three years it's been very poor

[lottiekent]

Looks like the far SE could be hit by that mass that is in France at the moment if it keeps its current path? You could get a double dose of storms

Is it looking likely that the mass tracking this way will keep it's course or veer east when it hits the Channel? We made up a picnic to go out with while it was warm and sunny first thing and then I looked at the radar! Normally I'm hopping about willing any possible storms to come this way but just this one time that i don't and it looks like being a direct hit - typical!

[Aaron]

Now you listen 'ere....I ain't add a propaa storm since abaat two faasand and nine innit (exc 28th June this year)....don't start this daan saaf gettin propaa storms raabbish

If they come off I'll be over the moon! But we've had so much disappointment in the last few years and in particular 2010!

This will be, again if it comes off, the first proper night time plume storm since June 2010 and even that was a pretty significant disappointment

Re Victor Meldrew's post, that 0400 MetO Invent rainfall run does look markedly like an MCS

Well, the south east has had a lot more storms than here, of course a lot of them localised, but I remember in late June this year when the south/east got some proper torrential downpours, and a friend in Hampshire has told me he reported over 100 mm in June and oover 70 mm in July, nothing of the sort here!

[EML Network]

The Storms over NW France wont hit the UK today, they're moving NE , will likely have a northern extent of the Channel, and to be honest I can't see anything for tonight/tomorrow either, maybe the very tip of SE England might catch a few isolated strikes, but it's looking like another near miss

[Coast]

4am!

Yep! Everything I've looked at this morning in both threads (http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70774-23rd-aug-2011-stormconvective-forecast-discussion-and-reports/ ) points to a start time after midnight, with the sweet spot (such as it currently is) around 3 to 4 am.

[The watcher]

Is it looking likely that the mass tracking this way will keep it's course or veer east when it hits the Channel? We made up a picnic to go out with while it was warm and sunny first thing and then I looked at the radar! Normally I'm hopping about willing any possible storms to come this way but just this one time that i don't and it looks like being a direct hit - typical!

Sods law that, I bet you normally check radar and forecasts before making a picnic too lol.

[Neilsouth]

Well, the south east has had a lot more storms than here, of course a lot of them localised, but I remember in late June this year when the south/east got some proper torrential downpours, and a friend in Hampshire has told me he reported over 100 mm in June and oover 70 mm in July, nothing of the sort here!

Hampshire is in the south not south east and you are mentioning the entire south east corner just for leeds... A VAST majority of the south east has had the odd storm and very weak ones too!, everything so far has stayed offshore or towards the north east