22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[gpspete]

storm over northern france the coloured areas are convective areas defined by temperature and cloud hight

[Chris K]

Hampshire is in the south not south east and you are mentioning the entire south east corner just for leeds... A VAST majority of the south east has had the odd storm and very weak ones too!, everything so far has stayed offshore or towards the north east

Well tonight maybe your lucky night BBC weather really focusing on "intense thunderstorms likely for the SE in the early hours". Wish I could see it but have to stay in Bristol tonight/tomorrow. Its increasingly looking like my area wont get anything electrical, but I will be keeping a close eye on the radar/sat images nonetheless haha.

[Coast]

GRRRR!!!! Those charts posted by Coast earlier have updated and appear to show the stuff reaching slightly further north, but the highest storm risk shunted east!!!!

OK, sorry for that. I've updated the links (they were hot-links not separate uploads) and they are now showing the time at the points of interest but with the info from the 06Z run that superseded the run I linked - if you get what I mean.

It looks to be still on!!!!

It’s never easy is it in this country.

No, especially as most of what we are relying on here in the SE corner is our French cousins' throw-offs!!!

[cobbettp]

Cloud increasing now on south coast here, maybe some showers this evening

[Coast]

Well tonight maybe your lucky night BBC weather really focusing on "intense thunderstorms likely for the SE in the early hours".

I'm going to be a bit blurry eyed tomorrow morning!

[camiscool]

will that storm in france hit us?

[Chris K]

NOOO the met office have removed the warnings for the SW (at least flooding here is less likely). This looks like its going to be a south-eastern affair!! Boring rain it is for me then.

[Coast]

will that storm in france hit us?

I'm reasonably sure that won't happen. I'm also mostly confident that any convective fun starts after dark

[Neilsouth]

Well tonight maybe your lucky night BBC weather really focusing on "intense thunderstorms likely for the SE in the early hours". Wish I could see it but have to stay in Bristol tonight/tomorrow. Its increasingly looking like my area wont get anything electrical, but I will be keeping a close eye on the radar/sat images nonetheless haha.

Heard that before

I do not belieeeeve it

[Harry]

This is the updated text for SE England and EA for the early hours of the morning (from the MetO)

Outbreaks of heavy rain are expected to spread into southern counties of England on Monday evening, turning locally heavy and thundery over parts of the SE half of England during early Tuesday morning. Whilst many parts will see relatively modest rainfall amounts, the public should be aware that surface water flooding and frequent lightning is possible locally

Edited August 22, 2011 by Harry

[Coast]

Boring rain it is for me then.

Not boring, unless you mean that the amount you are likely to get, which could be huge!

Seems that the two current threads are merging into one discussion, I'll combine them for convenience.

[Chris K]

Not boring, unless you mean that the amount you are likely to get, which could be huge!

Boring as in no lightning There is still some bright echoes forecasted on the rainfall radar but we will see!

[Purplepixii]

What started as a hot day with still, clear blue skies has now change to a warm day with increasing cloud cover albeit still warm. Thermometer says 23oC with 60% humidity and increasing wind. If I read the charts right we're not expecting anything down here in Hampshire are we? Darn it! Another pants year for storms

[gpspete]

sferics showing well over france plus an interesting area starting to show in the Bay of Biscay hopefully for us later.

i will be at work on nightshift so very limited photo opportunities if anything reaches Oxford

[MP-R]

Sounds like I'm just going to end up with a washout rather than anything more exciting, with the SE seeing the best potential for electrical activity...it was all looking good a day or two ago for me. Just hoping something does spread to our area...

To be honest mate I don't even think we're going to get a washout either. With the storms going eastwards goes the rain and we'll probably end up like last Thursday with just a dull day with bits of light rain around.

[Chris K]

To be honest mate I don't even think we're going to get a washout either. With the storms going eastwards goes the rain and we'll probably end up like last Thursday with just a dull day with bits of light rain around.

Yea probably. I think we have better chances as the week goes on with these thundery showers forecast for the second half of this week, as troughs are forecast to cross over us.

[Cableguy]

People over on UKWW don't seem too hopeful for tonight, unless youre in the extreme SE corner, only time will tell i guess.

Don't think i'll stay up as if anything is going to crop up it'll be later on in the night.

Cant sleep with the windows open either as i live opposite the main trainline into London Waterloo

[Jane Louise]

To those in the SW , I say expect the unexpected who knows what might happen. We've been proved wrong before.

Disappointing to say the least regarding our weather warning being removed from the MO, but isen't that good really lol because it usually happens then. Netweather still has us SW lot on weather watch so not all is lost.

[Coast]

People over on UKWW don't seem too hopeful for tonight, unless youre in the extreme SE corner

I'm afraid that is probably correct. It has showed as an extreme SE coast event for a couple of days now and although that's great for me and a few others down here, the most many members will get is a big dump of rain.

[Lauren]

I will keep my fingers crossed for tonight, but I'm very doubtful.

[gpspete]

i would keep an eye on the storm forming on the northern spanish/portuguise coast via the usual sat sites

also some cloud that is over Devon and Cornwall is looking a bit active and may get more active as it moves north eastwards

[Coast]

European severe weather alarm currently has nothing for us today:

http://www.meteoalar...php?lang=&day=0

But SkyWarn now have a severe weather watch out:

Update: 1200UTC Monday 22nd August 2011

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #046

ISSUED: 1200UTC MONDAY 22ND AUGUST 2011 (SM/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:SOUTH EASTERN ENGLAND EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 2100UTC MONDAY 22ND AUGUST UNTIL 1200UTC TUESDAY 23RD AUGUST

SLACK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH-EAST OUT OF THE NEAR CONTINENT FORMING A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS FOREMENTIONED REGIONS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

A SLACK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN MODELLED OVER RECENT DAYS TO MOVE NORTH EAST OUT OF THE NEAR CONTINENT AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT OF ENGLAND OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE LAST 24 HOURS FAX MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TRIPLE POINT SETUP TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHICH WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND, COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING AND BRING THE RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING. THERE IS SOME VARIATION BETWEEN MODELS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT GIVEN THE SETUP AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. VARIOUS DIFFERENT FORECAST AGENCIES ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE SIMILAR THOUGHTS AND ALSO HAVE THEIR OWN SEPERATE ALERTS OUT.

[SteveB]

I have yet to see a thunder storm this year and it has been 3 years since one so I am hopeful that somerset may get a storm.

Thunderstorms seem to be a distant memory for me, I seriously cannot remember the last time we had a decent storm.

[Dorsetbred]

Just checked the sky to my south - black clouds rolling in with mid level altocumulus castellanus attached - more promising than I originally thought!

Just checked the sky to my south - clouds rolling in with mid level altocumulus

[Harry]

European severe weather alarm currently has nothing for us today:

http://www.meteoalar...php?lang=&day=0

But SkyWarn now have a severe weather watch out:

Hmmm...Skywarn appear only interested in one 'T' word and that's 'Triple point', not 'thunder'

I'm not sure I've ever seen Meteoalarm issue warnings for us so I'll ignore that for now the most encouraging thing about meteoalarm is their darker orange shading across C and W France....seems to suggest storms moving north and maybe northwest....