22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Neilsouth]

The chance of us having severe is about 0.01%, then again in this day and age just a rumble of thunder is enough to be severe!

Dark here from dark haze, had some mammatus underneath the skies earlier which is from unstable skies not always storms

[Coast]

Hmmm...Skywarn appear only interested in one 'T' word and that's 'Triple point', not 'thunder'

I'm not sure I've ever seen Meteoalarm issue warnings for us so I'll ignore that for now the most encouraging thing about meteoalarm is their darker orange shading across C and W France....seems to suggest storms moving north and maybe northwest....

I think the Meteoalarm one is applicable to today, so probably won't show the stuff for the early hours unless they update later. SkyWarn must be being cautious, although in reality, the most widespread threat is currently the rain with our little bit of TStorms being a lesser event on the whole.

[Dorsetbred]

i would keep an eye on the storm forming on the northern spanish/portuguise coast via the usual sat sites

also some cloud that is over Devon and Cornwall is looking a bit active and may get more active as it moves north eastwards

Interesting the flow of what's over the channel, it's almost being ripped into Europe, watching the sat sequence.

[SteveB]

To be honest mate I don't even think we're going to get a washout either. With the storms going eastwards goes the rain and we'll probably end up like last Thursday with just a dull day with bits of light rain around.

I agree, patchy light rain thats it.

I will go for around 5mm total for tomorrow.

[Thundery Shower]

The cell looks like it has more of a N-NW approach now, i think Meto-office have go this spot on.

[cobbettp]

I cant really see us get any storms to be honest.... they will stay over the Continent (where its warmer)

http://www.vigilance-meteo.fr/en/weather/weather-for-professionals/clouds-precipitation-film/france.html

This is pretty smart, and includes the south coast

[cmimrie]

I cant really see us get any storms to be honest.... they will stay over the Continent (where its warmer)

http://www.vigilance...ilm/france.html

This is pretty smart, and includes the south coast

Now that animated forecast looks amazing.

[Neilsouth]

http://www.vigilance...ilm/france.html

This is pretty smart, and includes the south coast

But that's already wrong...

[Harry]

But that's already wrong...

Agreed

[anvilhead]

the wrfnmm on metieociel (usualy pretty acurate) looks pretty promissing http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

[Neilsouth]

Agreed

proof

FORECASTED ( FRENCH )

FORECASTED ( MET )

ACTUAL

[Harry]

the wrfnmm on metieociel (usualy pretty acurate) looks pretty promissing http://www.meteociel...eles/wrfnmm.php

Nevertheless seems to be missing the MCS over N France at the moment which could be a game changer for later on this evening (whether that would be for the better or worse I don't know)

Worth mentioning that the development of an MCS (unless intensifying and moving towards you) seldom means great things....just leaves lots of detritus and stabilises the atmosphere behind it. Then again, it's 1pm with another 21 hours or so before the primary risk period is expected to pass.....

Estofex still nothing - expect UKASF to update later

Edited August 22, 2011 by Harry

[Neilsouth]

Nevertheless seems to be missing the MCS over N France at the moment which could be a game changer for later on this evening (whether that would be for the better or worse I don't know)

Either missing it or way off in location, so any predicted rainfall for later should be ignored

[anvilhead]

boo!

I give up with the UK!

[A.J]

boo!

I give up with the UK!

I feel your pain!.....After promising start to the spring with warmth and a couple of storms in the first 10 days of May, it's been without a shadow of a doubt the most boring, nondescript, ankle-slashing with a blunt knife miserable excuse of a summer, certainly for the midlands!.....I wouldn't even mind if it snowed, or even rained 3 legged frogs, as long as it does something!!

[cobbettp]

All we ever get is the high clouds from the storms in France, how annoying LOL

[Chris K]

the storm over the BoB next to the centre of the low is currently losing a bit of lightning frequency by the looks of it. Most of it now is over France tracking NE...hopefully things begin developing a bit more as the afternoon wears on.

[Coast]

All seems to be panning out as forecast, with those storms over France not looking to bother us in daylight hours:

[Joneseye]

Some serious amounts of rain have fallen to the south of the Brest Peninsula according to the radar, looking at 250mm in some parts in the last 12 hours

[Jane Louise]

Here is the latest from UK Weatherworld:

Further thunderstorms are now developing around western France - rather than re-invent the wheel, here's what I posted on the Estofex forum today - obviously a bit more biased to the storm activity than the UK:

Severe storms look likely over France today, and later on and overnight, parts of the BeNeLux and Germany.

Several storms/perhaps a developing MCS, already in progress over western France as forcing from the large-scale upper trough over N Spain moves northwards across the moisture plume. This upper low will loft NE and flatten as an Atlantic jet approaches through tonight.

It looks like this MCS should continue to move/expand NE'wards through today, although the surface flow will be NE'erly, and cooler, and so some elevated storms with a risk for large hail seem possible over N France, along with some strong wind gusts.

This cluster should turn more ENE overnight, rolling along or just to the north of the warm front, into the BeNeLux and N Germany.

Meanwhile, another cluster of storms should form just ahead of the upper low as it lifts through France later today and overnight. Strong gusts and perhaps large hail seem likely with these, and an MCS may well move from central western France NE towards NE France/Belgium later tonight, perhaps just clipping SE England tomorrow morning.

It looks a rather active week thereafter at times, especially later in the week as a very large upper trough moves in from the west.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=44536#M647343

It's going to be better for later in the week

[Coast]

I'm really quite surprised at the relatively small amount of precip forecast for Shoreham airport later:

[loopydreamer]

well im going to stay optimistic!

[Harry]

I'm growing increasingly pessimistic!

The last time UKWW posted something which was horrific reading, they were right! Hopefully they wont be this time!

All this ENE/NE nonsense gets on my t*ts!

In other news, feeling increasingly warm and humid here - upper level moisture screaming in from the South as the sky turns hazier and hazier!

Has Nick F issued a forecast for today?

[Coast]

Has Nick F issued a forecast for today?

I guess technically it's tomorrow!?

[EML Network]

Yes although it's not over until the fat lady has eaten the last cake....It's not looking good for any storms today or tomorrow, the best and more widespread potential looks to be this Friday & Saturday, where I am expecting to see some frenzied activity on here