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22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports


Coast

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

could someone please post some rainfall accumulation charts for tommorow thanks

I've not got anything to hand for the early hours currently, but interesting to see what is projected for later in the day and where it might happen:

rain1.curr.1200lst.d2.png

rain1.curr.1400lst.d2.png

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Hmm some interesting views on what could happen or not,I know for a fact nothing will happen in or around the Bristol area,so used to it now it's like reading the same book with the same ending when it comes to storms,I am wondering weather it is worth making a trip to the east or not in the hope of something,even if its only lightning out at sea it would be something.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

BBC are now mentioning thunder and lightning in their forecasts (which is hardly surprising given the text on the MetO forecasts)

My biggest concern is UKWW's forecast which as ever is rather pessimistic for the SE, other than maybe getting clipped by an MCS! I suppose the good news is MCS' are notoriously difficult to pin down and they could be wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Just to be anywhere in the risk zone would suit me lol We have had a load of storms this year but don't think I would ever get sick of them even if I had one every day of the year lol To be honest there's not a massive distance between the north and south of the region (in terms of miles) is there? So, I would be surprised if there were intense storms in the south of the region, if they didn't make their way north to you! lol

Trust me, it's 50 miles to Ipswich from here but that's far enough to screw it up :D

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Posted
  • Location: Havant, nr Portsmouth, SE Hampshire
  • Location: Havant, nr Portsmouth, SE Hampshire

Nick miller said thunderstorms central southern england and south east on latest news24 weather :) YAAAAAAAAAAAAY Yippie LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I'm going to stick my neck out waaaaaay too far now. Here's where I think might catch it and I'm going for 0230 hrs to 0400 hrs, 23/08/11 for the best time:

post-6667-0-73778500-1314020061.gif

Also just seen this for storm helicity:

gfs_srh_eur21.png

post-6667-0-73778500-1314020061_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.

well im going to be up at least the next 12 hrs glued to the radars :) unless everything really does go tits up!!! :(

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Disappointing. Dont think ill bother staying up to watch - nothing is going to happen here once again bar heavy rain. Say this everytime...but hopefully I'll see something later this week dry.png

Good luck to those in the SE, sounds like an active night is coming. Stay safe if flooding does occur!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Well thanks for that dose of pessimism Coast :cray:

(only joking)

Naturally, I hope you're spectacularly wrong :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Well thanks for that dose of pessimism Coast cray.gif

Not for my part of the World! laugh.png

We will just have to wait and see now!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

without doubt there is the potential for cambridge to get a hammering - fairly interesting...reckon the action will be east, south and west of us though! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Worth noting new cells are exploding across NW France as the Low moves in!

Also, not sure if it's just me but that low does seem to be moving quite quickly northwards, quicker than currently progged! It's predictable, albeit slight, NE push is start to kick in though.

without doubt there is the potential for cambridge to get a hammering - fairly interesting...reckon the action will be east, south and west of us though! tease.gif

Don't forget North of you also :) always the way!

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex

I'm going to stick my neck out waaaaaay too far now. Here's where I think might catch it and I'm going for 0230 hrs to 0400 hrs, 23/08/11 for the best time:

post-6667-0-73778500-1314020061.gif

That has been my suspicion all morning but I live in hope we will see something slightly further west.

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Im confused now lol,Metcheck has a warning out for heavy thundery rain,A large area of the country is in the red(High Risk) including central and southern counties and Wales,so now i dont know whether to stay put or travel to the east???

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Im confused now lol,Metcheck has a warning out for heavy thundery rain,A large area of the country is in the red(High Risk) including central and southern counties and Wales,so now i dont know whether to stay put or travel to the east???

Im not sure...the low pressure system seems to be getting a more NE kick to it now...I honestly can't see much more happenning here than heavy rain. I may be wrong, something might develop, but most other forecasts are keen to keep this more to the East/SE of us now.

The warning for us is most likely because we are still expecting a lot of rainfall which could cause localised flooding.

Edited by Bugganuts
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

That has been my suspicion all morning but I live in hope we will see something slightly further west.

I'm quite happy to share!!! unknw.gif

nexstorm.png

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 22/08/2011 15:21:19 Tracking 3 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID J-5143 detected 08:32

Storm location bearing 176.7 dgr distance 179 mi

Last recorded activity 15:21

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 1/minute

Peak strikerate 12/minute

Total recorded strikes 867

Cloud-Ground strikes 482 - 55.59%

Intracloud strikes 385 - 44.41%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 139 - 16.03%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 343 - 39.56%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 199 - 22.95%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 186 - 21.45%

Thunderstorm ID J-552 detected 14:22

Storm location bearing 161.3 dgr distance 188 mi

Last recorded activity 15:21

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 6/minute

Peak strikerate 11/minute

Total recorded strikes 192

Cloud-Ground strikes 107 - 55.73%

Intracloud strikes 85 - 44.27%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 20 - 10.42%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 87 - 45.31%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 57 - 29.69%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 28 - 14.58%

------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID A-5299 detected 12:08

Storm location bearing 112.3 dgr distance 133 mi

Last recorded activity 15:21

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 4/minute

Peak strikerate 12/minute

Total recorded strikes 500

Cloud-Ground strikes 266 - 53.20%

Intracloud strikes 234 - 46.80%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 52 - 10.40%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 214 - 42.80%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 117 - 23.40%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 117 - 23.40%

------------------------------------------------------- *** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.8.0.7025:PCI

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Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex

lol get the cream cakes in then Coast, I might be heading your way later at this rate lol

Edited by Adi F
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Hi all,

I'm guessing we won't get much idea whether a greater area other than just Eastbourne rofl.gif is going to be effected until at least early evening.

IMHO, anyone looking to chase should leave it to at least this time before heading out if not later still!

Judging by the outflow from the current storms I feel a much larger area may well end up being in the firing line for at least some action. I don't know whether the required atmospheric dynamics are there for the new areas (say Hampshire/Dorset/Berkshire etc.) but I believe it's all to play for from sundown onwards. Most likely, you should take my guesswork with a "pinch of salt" but I'm more confident than others in here it seems. blum.gif

post-7183-0-28253200-1314023639_thumb.gipost-7183-0-75926200-1314023655_thumb.gi

I'm liking the approach of the low thus far and we should not worry if the sferics die down, as the key time period for French developments will be between approximately 6pm and midnight. This is precisely when I will be paying much more attention to the continent's activities.

Whatever happens, the opportunities are dwindling for yet another year, so I truly hope some folk get lucky tonight, including myself for that matter.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

There is a group of Sferics SSE of Isle of Wight looks like that they may hit south coast soon

post-9919-0-21410600-1314024104_thumb.pn

as they have been moving in a generally north direction

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

The progression of the Low is encouraging I must admit! The low has pretty much lost grip of the current MCS which is now drifting ENE...storms forming closer to the Low however will more in its grip and less likely to fling out in such an easterly direction...look at the fresh cells to the NE of the Low centre...they aren't drifting as rapidly NE as the circulation around the low is keeping them tucked in.

Intense radar watching I feel by many on here......I also note that at the moment much of the rain is convective and not frontal mess....which is also encouraging!

Although I know its an academic/voluntary organisation, I cannot emphasise enough my displeasure with Estofex! Come 5pm there'll be a forecast out for tomorrow smothering Benelux and N Germany in a Level 1 or 2 with naff all here!

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Lydd, Romney Marsh, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Storms
  • Location: Lydd, Romney Marsh, Kent

Currently parked in Folkestone overlooking the harbour, lovely spot, very hazy, poor vis, reminds me of the precursor to a large storm which hopped across channel in 2007 the classic murkyness! Incidentally my wife has kicked me out today, cant go anywhere else until she calms down,so am doing some storm chasing instead, anyone on south coast between dover and hastings over next 24 hrs let me know

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

lol get the cream cakes in then Coast, I might be heading your way later at this rate lol

Éclair or doughnut? good.gif

The progression of the Low is encouraging I must admit! The low has pretty much lost grip of the current MCS which is now drifting ENE...storms forming closer to the Low however will more in its grip and less likely to fling out in such an easterly direction...look at the fresh cells to the NE of the Low centre...they aren't drifting as rapidly NE as the circulation around the low is keeping them tucked in.

Still think the main event is after hours, but I'd be happy to have some hors d'oeuvres until the 72oz steak is cooked!

Although I know its an academic/voluntary organisation, I cannot emphasise enough my displeasure with Estofex! Come 5pm there'll be a forecast out for tomorrow smothering Benelux and N Germany in a Level 1 or 2 with naff all here!

TORRO have nothing either for today (yet) so maybe they are hanging this one out until the last possible moment so to avoid the guessing - like I have!!!

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