Super Typhoon Nanmadol

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 96W has become TD14W, 400 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Intensity is 25kts. 14W is in a weak sttering environment and is moving little. The depression's steering influence is going to come from a developing monsoon depression to the northeast (invest 97W). Invest 97W is a very broad and much larger system than TD14W, and will pull 14W towards itself. This means that 14W will slowly move northeastwards over the next day or so, followed by an acceleration towards the northeast as a binary interaction occurs. 14W will likely end up being absorbed later down the line, though this is a long way off and therefore uncertain. Strengthening is likely as shear is low and outflow good, but 14W will be negatively impacted by invest 97W as the distance between the two systems decrease. As a result, JTWC forecast a peak of 50kts in 4-5 days time followed by weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

14W has moved very slowly northwards overnight and has become a tropical storm, with intensity now at 35kts. Deep convection persists over the LLC, and banding features are becoming more prominant. The storm should receive a name from JMA soon. Conditions are favourable for continued strengthening with low shear, warm sea temps and good radial outflow. 14W should accelerate to the northeast in a few days time as it begins a Fujiwhara Interaction with a developing storm to the east (invest 97W). This creates large uncertainty in both the intensity and track forecast for 14W by day 4 and 5.

[Somerset Squall]

14W has strengthened further and has become Tropical Storm Nandamol, with intensity now at 45kts. Deep convection continues to persist over the LLC, and tight, curved banding continues to wrap around the storm. Nandamol is in a very favourable environment for further intensification as it drifts northwards, with low shear and good upper level outflow persisting. I don't think it will be long before Nandamol becomes a typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

My previous post should read NANMADOL for the storm's name.

Intensity still at 45kts, though a solid CDO appears to be forming, so this should allow some decent strengthening to begin. Interesting to see the HUGE invest 97W closing in on tropical depression status to the east, this is the system that is expected to interact with Nanmadol in a few days time. At this stage, it's difficult to say what will happen to both storms. Fascinating to watch once the Fujiwhara effect begins!

Edited August 24, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol has continued to strengthen as it moves little in weak steering currents. Intensity has risen to 60kts. Further intensification is expected as Nanmadol drifts to the north over the next few days.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol has become a typhoon with intensity now at 65kts. Nandamol has thick, curved banding wrapping into a solid and very dense CDO feature. All of this indicates a healthy system in a favourable environment. Don't be surprised to see Nanmadol become a cat 3 before any negative influences start to be felt from the developing tropical cyclone (97W) to the east. The image above shows Nanmadol's strong organisation well.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol has continued to strengthen quickly, and intensity has risen to 90kts, making the typhoon a cat 2. Low shear, strong dual outflow channels and warm sea temps should allow continued rapid intensification. Nanmadol has moved little over the last day or two but it is now finally moving slowly in a northerly direction. In a few days, a turn towards the northeast is expected as Nanmadol interacts with Tropical Storm Talas to the east. The latter should begin to move away from Nanmadol, so the interaction shouldn't last long. JTWC expect a peak of 120kts east of Taiwan, followed by a period of slight weakening as the Fujiwhara Interaction occurs.

Edited August 25, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol continues to rapidly intensify. Sustained winds are now at 115kts, making Nanmadol a cat 4. The eye is very well defined and is embedded in a near circular central dense overcast feature. I don't think this phase of rapid intensification has finished yet, and I think Nanmadol could get close or reach cat 5 strength by tomorrow.

Edited August 25, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

Impressive storm, Shows how fast these systems can ramp up out here!

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, this typhoon is going nuts!

Nanmadol is stubbornly moving west too, which is not good news at all. This means the dangerous typhoon is going to scrape Luzon as a high end cat 4 or cat 5, then impact Taiwan at similar strength. As Nanmadol has moved further away from Talas, fujiwhara interaction is no longer expected leaving the typhoon to bring some very severe weather to Taiwan after lashing Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol has become a super typhoon this morning, and is on the cusp of cat 5 status, with intensity now at 135kts. Nanmadol has a perfectly defined eye and a solid CDO feature. Nanmadol should attain cat 5 status as it passes just east of Luzon. The strongest winds should remain just offshore and Nanmadol is finally making that poleward turn, but eastern Luzon is and will continue to be battered by some very damaging winds nonetheless and also some flooding rains. Nanmadol should continue on a northerly track as the ridge to the north weakens and steering influence transfers to an equatorial ridge. However, steering currents could become ill defined again when Nanmadol passes east of Taiwan as the super typhoon puts some distance between itself and the ridge. After attaining cat 5 status, Nanmadol should slowly weaken as shear begins to increase near Taiwan.

[Somerset Squall]

This is a scary image for Luzon:

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol continued to wonder west of north and therefore interacted with the rugged terrain of Luzon moreso than originally anticipated. Nanmadol's peak was 135kts, just below cat 5 status, and the typhoon has lost strength over land. Intensity has fallen to 105kts, making Nanmadol a cat 3 currently. Nanmadol is expected to regain some strength as it clears northern Luzon and heads towards Taiwan. The track forecast has shifted westwards as ridging is expected to rebuild to the north of Nanmadol once more, meaning landfall in Taiwan is looking much more likely than originally thought. Over Taiwan, Nanmadol will significantly weaken as it runs through the country south to north. This also means severe weather will affect the country for an extended period.

Four people already reported dead in the Philippines:

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/super-typhoon-nanmadol-lashes-philippines_728588.html

[Somerset Squall]

Nanmadol is closing in on southern Taiwan. Land interaction has weakened Nanmadol to 75kts and it never really had time to recover from Luzon. However, the typhoon is still dangerous as it has a lot of rain attached to it along with damaging winds. Nanmadol will make landfallin around 12hrs time. Afterwards, ridging to the north will rebuild forcing Nanmadol westwards. Nanmadol will be a tropical storm by this point, before making another landfall on the east coast of China.

[yamkin]

Typhoon Nanmadol floods homes in Taiwan, heads for China

A typhoon that flooded homes, roads and farmland in Taiwan with more than 20 inches of rain left the island Monday and headed to southeastern China............................http://www.usatoday....ID=xjh8jzgmzc80

Edited August 29, 2011 by yamkin

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the video Yamkin, it does look pretty bad for everyone who has been in the path of Nanmadol over the last week.

Nanmadol has weakened to 45kts and is close to landfall in southeastern China. Very little convection resides near the LLC due to an increase in shear. With continued high shear, Nanmadol should quickly dissipate over land.

[onlyME]

Nanmadol landfalled in SE China and JTWC issued its last advisory.

There are some floods and landslides in China,but Chinese government says that no deaths or injuries are reported to them!