Tropical Storm Jose

[Paranoid]

Bit of a surprise storm this one, appears to have just formed near Bermuda. Perhaps shear from Irene was holding it back?

Advisory link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/281159.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

Very surprising as the NHC gave it a near 0% chance of developing 24hrs ago! Their disscussion at the time highlighted the circulation was well defined, but there was no convection over the LLC due to high shear. In the face of the shear, convection flared and remained persistant enough for the disturbance to be declared Tropical Storm Jose, with intensity at 35kts. Shear is still very much a problem for Jose. Irene's outflow is causing strong shear of 40-50kts over Jose, and it is difficult to see how Jose can survive very long in such a hostile environment. Therefore, Jose is forecast to dissipate in 24-36hrs. However, due to Jose's proximity to Bermuda, a tropical storm warning has been issued.

[Somerset Squall]

Despite the strong shear Jose's LLC has tightened a little as the storm moves just west of Bermuda. Also, flaring convection has occured a little closer to the centre. Intensiy has increased to 40kts. Despite Jose's slight intensfication, Jose is still expected to dissipate soon. The very high shear will prevent persistant convection from forming and will also distort the LLC.

[onlyME]

Jose is again a minimal tropical storm (35 kt).

It will become post - tropical because of shear and cooler waters according to NHC.

Bye,Jose! See you in 2017!