Major Hurricane Katia

[Iceberg]

Morning, The NHC have said that this is now TD 12 with advisories due to start in 50 mins.

Could be a nice photogenic one with little chance of landfall but most models projecting a good hurricane.

Path and intensity predictions.

[Somerset Squall]

My favourite type of storm to track if it is indeed a fish!

[toggerob]

Looks good on the IR Rainbow view http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg some substantial cloud heights coming into Mauritania now aswell which may be the next invest after TD12, or become associated with it.

[Somerset Squall]

NHC advisory out, indicates gradual intensification into a hurricane, with an 85kt intensity forecast by day 5. Track forecast is a mix of northwesterly and west-northwesterly, and TD 12 does get quite close to the Caribbean by day 5. Definitely one to watch.

[tinybill]

http://www.stormpulse.com/

looking at the track on here its going were they dont whant to the bay of mexico !!!

[Iceberg]

Some major shifts westwards in the 12Z model guidance, not enough yet to cause landfall, but enough to start raising the possibilitity the 00Z suite will be interesting. BTW they all still make this into a Major hurricane due to the very favourable conditions.

[SMU]

iceberg- see the 12z ECM that looked like a pathway similar to irene, however the track was less curved out - meaning it came in west sharp & didnt swing out as fast-

would be catastrophe for the same areas- interesting this year as the bermuda high has been ridging North scuppering the UK Summer, with that in mind a Major hurricane in the GOM is looking unlikely because the bottom side of the ridge isnt holding the storms on that southern track for long enough

S

Edited August 29, 2011 by Steve Murr

[Cookie]

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

What a fantastic satelite picture there cookie! Where does it come from?

[Cookie]

What a fantastic satelite picture there cookie! Where does it come from?

If im honest no idea I pinched it :lol:

[Iceberg]

iceberg- see the 12z ECM that looked like a pathway similar to irene, however the track was less curved out - meaning it came in west sharp & didnt swing out as fast-

would be catastrophe for the same areas- interesting this year as the bermuda high has been ridging North scuppering the UK Summer, with that in mind a Major hurricane in the GOM is looking unlikely because the bottom side of the ridge isnt holding the storms on that southern track for long enough

S

The link between the UK and hurricane season is very obvious this year isn't it Steve. GFS 00Z actually sends Katia this way at the end of the run, but if we assume a more north westwards track i.e closer to land then I don't see this as very likely but a good ridge and maybe some warm September weather come mid September is more reasonable.

Re the Bermuda high it seems to be linking up with a strong Azores high which is allowing a good ridge to extend across the Atlantic allowing systems such as Irene/Katia to come in straight of Africa as Cape Verde Storms and then survive across a low shear environment which SAL the only issue as it gets dragged along the corridor as well.

A very interesting season so far, no systems developing east of the Leewards, however also no systems really going anywhere between Texas and Florida.

Anyway the 00Z suite is still trending west, islanders will not want to see the GFDL which places the future storm in touching distance of them, GFS now goes just to the west of Bermuda. The ridge is looking stronger as well which makes the GFS slower until the trough comes along in the distance future. GFS has persistantly underplayed the highs and weakened them to quickly, introducing the troughs too quickly and deeply. ECM really is the model of choice atm.

TD12 looks to be suffering from shear to me atm from the NE it's still at only 11N or so and will struggle to get the circulation unless a solid CDO forms, we also have a bit of suffering from the dreaded dry air of this season as per the NHC latest discussion.

All in All TD12 is taking a little longer to develop than the models are suggesting which will also help her to be steered more westwards on the prevailing winds.

[Paranoid]

Now officially TS Katia, advisory below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/300845.shtml

[Adi F]

The latest assembly of the track.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12

[AderynCoch]

Certainly the potential for a high-season Cape Verde beast here. Far too early to tell where it's going to end up though.

As an aside Katia is Katrina's successor, having entered the list after the latter was retired.

[yamkin]

Guess what folks, I'm sure you all remember what Hurricane Katrina was like, the name Katia replaces the name Katrina. Let's hope they have not put a jinx on the name and it turns out to be a CAT 5 hurricane as well.........http://abclocal.go.c...orld&id=8334907

Edited August 30, 2011 by yamkin

[mezzacyclone]

Interesting models (latest GFS 12z not lauded one bit due to slowing the movement too much under the steadfast Atlantic ridge? currently zipping along @ 15kn?) with 2 ridges nearly co-joining and even a low in the NW GOM beginning to develop at 96hrs?

Little troughing SWestwards but we know Katia will have to contend with dry air incursions under the ridge regardless how potent she becomes but all in all and as said earlier post, we are gonna be watching this for quite a while until things are clearer? as fun as it is for the time being

[Iceberg]

Yes more ridging on the GFS, not a surprise given that the 06Z ops was on the extreme east of the ENS GFS runs will comment more when the run is fully out.

A fish this might not be....

[Iceberg]

GFS goes on to quickly and almost indecently erode the high and replace it with a trough, which tbh looks very unrealistic.

ECM at only T24 seems to have a poor handle of the storm. It might have some value later in the run to judge the longer term synoptics.

HWRF and GFDL has both trended west.

All in All I would say that none of the 12Z models seems to have a very good grasp beyond T120.

[Jack Wales]

A lovely looking system alreaedy....

A dense CDO forming with cold cloud tops, I think Katia will be a hurricane tomorrow

[Paranoid]

I'd say Katia is up to 50-60mph winds based on that picture. If she makes it to Hurricane status tomorrow, then she's ahead of "schedule", which will worry people further down the line. Hopefully Katia will turn out to be a fish or only pass near to land without making landfall (similar to Earl of 2010).

[Somerset Squall]

My opinion is this has a real shot a cat 5 status. I truly hope it goes out to sea!

[Paranoid]

My opinion is this has a real shot a cat 5 status. I truly hope it goes out to sea!

It has plenty of time to strengthen, really depends on conditions later on in the week. I'm inclined to agree with you about the possibility of Katia reaching Cat 5 (very likely at the moment she will reach Cat 4). Hopefully she will not be as infamous as her predecessor...

[Polar Bear]

here we go you all...

wonder then if this lady will make the grade tomorrow then....

000

WTNT32 KNHC 302039

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011

500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 35.4W

ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST. KATIA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE

TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[tinybill]

here we go you all...

wonder then if this lady will make the grade tomorrow then....

000

WTNT32 KNHC 302039

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011

500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...KATIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 35.4W

ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST. KATIA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE

TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.stormpulse.com/

see one trackes could be heading for new orleans area

[Jack Wales]

I agree, Katia now has a definate shot at Cat 5, and conditions appear to favour rapid intensification with increasing ocean heat and low shear. Katia already appears to be a fairly large system so if she does make cat 5 she may not stay at that level for very long. GFS goes for landfall in Nova Scotia / Newfoundland, it'll be interesting to see what track the rest of the models will forecast.