Major Hurricane Katia

[Harry]

Katia definately back to Hurricane strength again and should be acknowledged as such by the NHC in the next advisory at 4.00pm. GFS 06Z now skirts the N.Carolina banks and Rhode Island with Katia, but the westward shift is continuing.

Obviously lots can change, but it does look conceivable that the New York area could be hit by Katia on or shortly before September 11th (10 year anniversary!)

Coupled with the devastation caused by Irene, it could well be an uncomfortable coming week for Americans.

[AderynCoch]

Katia definately back to Hurricane strength again and should be acknowledged as such by the NHC in the next advisory at 4.00pm.

Confirmed: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/021457.shtml

[tinybill]

Confirmed: http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/021457.shtml

http://www.stormpulse.com/

looking at the models now most of them are saying it could going to the bay of mexico ,or hit land somewere near charlstron

[Adi F]

http://www.stormpulse.com/

looking at the models now most of them are saying it could going to the bay of mexico ,or hit land somewere near charlstron

Really?

She is skirting westward under the blocking high pressure to her north at the moment, over the next 7 days that high pressure will erode from the west so once that starts happens she will turn very quickly to a more north easterly track. At this time there is still some suggestion she will miss the mainland but as time goes on that chance is getting smaller and smaller. Its still a long way out yet so things will change.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Adi F

[Somerset Squall]

Katia is struggling again under shear, newest NHC advisory says she could well be just below hurricane strength again. Latest intensity forecast backs off major hurricane status as conditions are expected to remain less than favourable for the next few days. Nevertheless, Katia is still expected to become a cat 2 and if the environment improves there is of course every chance Katia could become a Major.

It's worth noting the slower Katia tracks, the less likely she will be picked up by the next trough and the more likely she will trend westwards under renewed ridging.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Paranoid]

What implications could the westward trend have on any eventual landfall? Are we looking at somewhere further up the east coast such as the Carolinas or is a more southern location such as Florida more likely?

[Somerset Squall]

Still really difficult to say at the moment. Somewhere on the east coast is a lot more likely than Florida, but if the track keeps shifting west we can't rule a brush with Florida out. Latest GFS brings Katia practically onshore in North Carolina. It's looking less likely Katia will miss the east coast entirely.

[ZONE 51]

thought it was katla for a mo..

[Paranoid]

thought it was katla for a mo..

Would have been a hell of an eruption if she ended up in the tropical Atlantic ^-^.

[karyo]

thought it was katla for a mo..

Well, according to most forecasts Katla and Katia are likely to meet next week! lol

[Adi F]

Very few of the models have Katia making landfall on mainland USA up to the present run, most suggest the coast will feel the effects but the eye will stay out at sea. Nova Scotia seems to in for the worst weather at the moment but its still way out in FI at the moment. The only model that is throwing a spanner in the mix is UK Met which has gone off on its own track!

The fact is very few cat 1 and 2 hurricanes on a similar track at this time of year have made landfall on the US mainland.

[Adi F]

Secondly sea temperatures arnt that great so she will strengthen slightly over the next 5 or six days as she crosses a plume of warmer waters but then pass back into significantly cooler waters and her strength will drop again probably back to Cat 1.

[summer blizzard]

The chances of landfall even in Nova Scotia are now very limited.

TS Lee has formed in the GOM and is now 65mph+. TS Lee is also a large storm. Rather than hitting land and just degenerating, TS Lee will be picked up by a cold front and become extratropical causing a sting Jet, this will create a strong weakness in the ridge near the north east of the US. In addition to this, Hurricane Katia is already on NW path and thus will only get closer to this weakness. Hurricane Katia is expected to near Bermuda however there is a strong chance of a pretty sharp turn towards the north east.

Complete FISH although it could become a major hurricane beforehand.

[Cookie]

[Iceberg]

NHC have taken Katia down whilst I've been away, but looks like they will bring her back up to Hurricane strength again, worth remembering that without recon (there has not been a single recon flight into Katia), her intensity could be 50kts or 70kts, Lee even without a strong centre had 50kts surface winds, Katia has been around for much longer. For this reason I am not sure it makes much sense to keep lowering her and raising her by 5kts but hey ho.

Atm Katia is again looking like a hurricane and has the best presentation I think I have seen from her, high level outflow is better and is good in ALL Quads even the Quads that were effected by shear yesterday, inflow is also better and Katia has a much more symetrical look and tighter feel.

We should be entering Katias best chance of some rather quick intensification, with nothing but her self to really effect things.

Katia has been moving ENE IMO she has just managed to get over 20N but is struggling to travel north much, truth be told she's struggling to travel much at all and is very slow moving.

Re Landfall on the US, I think the chances are improving, This is the ECM which has Katia effecting the very same area in N.Carolina as Irene did. This is the model which is widely considered the best. GFS and ECM have very different solutions wrt the trough leaving the US both have been pretty consistant in their solutions. So it's a total run off between the two.

If the ECM wins then a direct hit on the US is favoured IMO with a similar track to Irene, NC and then Rhode Island, GFS puts Bermuda in play.

I wouldn't bet against the ECM and on balance think that the US will be effected by Katia.

We might get some recon on Monday, these cut backs on flights are really bothersome.

[Coast]

[Iceberg]

I see there have kept her at 60kts, which is a total surprise. Dvorak number are T4.0 which support a CAT 1 Hurricane, coupled with this we have a bouy which is reported sustained winds of 46kts and gusts to 65kts with pressure of 995mb and these numbers are still going up so we will have to see what they get to.

Based on this winds somewhere in this whole system of 65 kts seems quite reasonable.

[Cookie]

[onlyME]

Any chances for Katia becoming annular?

On satellite image it looks very round. --->

[Iceberg]

The bouy is now reporting sustained winds of 56kts and pressure of 992mb with 76kt gusts.

Considering it's very unlikely that the bouy is lucky enough to go straight through the strongest part of Katia with the lowest pressure the NHC estimate of 60kts and pressure of 992mb looks to weak.

This is a hurricane IMO.

I don't think it will go ann. as there isn't an upper high over the top of it, but it will still strengthen alot IMO

[Iceberg]

As much of an acknowledgement that your get from the NHC that they got it wrong. A special update below taking Katia back to Hurricane.

The update has Katia at 987mb but the bouy later went on to record pressure down to 982mb so 980 would be a very reasonable estimate. It's clear that Katia is alot stronger than they thought.

"

Hurricane KATIA Update Statement

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive UPDATE 000WTNT62 KNHC 041100TCUAT2HURRICANE KATIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011700 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OFTHE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...133 KM/H...JUST TO THENORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KATIA IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO A HURRICANE."

[Paranoid]

Beginnings of an eye starting to appear?

[Iceberg]

The bouy is now reported pressure of 968mb......

And winds of over 70kts this is a CAT 2 Hurricane IMO and I can't remember NHC getting it so wrong before....

Conservative after the hype of Irene, but maybe NHC have been too conservative this time.

It looks like an eye to be a few more frames needed rally.

[Paranoid]

Katia's structure seems to have changed quite a lot over the last 3 hours or so, could be some intensification going on which might account for the buoy readings. Next advisory will be out in the next half an hour or so. Will see what they have to say.

EDIT: Looks like RI is happening according to the NHC. Now upgraded to Category 2 with 100mph winds and a pressure of 966mb. http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/041452.shtml

Edited September 4, 2011 by Paranoid

[summer blizzard]

hurricane katia definitely bombing looking at the past 6 hours of images and starting to look very good. very good chance of a high category 3 or low category 4.