UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[Costa Del Fal]

Next Mondays potential still there but I have a feeling that as this weekends potential is shifting East so is the potential on Monday now and could end up missing the best potential for much of the UK or only affect the East. Still, good potential still there right now, just a thought.

[staplehurst]

Big difference between Sunday and Monday, or rather Saturday night and Monday is Sat night is more of a plume-type event, most likely your classic elevated imports, whereas Monday is more your rPm airmass thundery showers (pulse-type storms etc). In this country, given past few years, the most widespread activity is acheived from rPm showery regimes more than imports sadly.

[Harry]

Big difference between Sunday and Monday, or rather Saturday night and Monday is Sat night is more of a plume-type event, most likely your classic elevated imports, whereas Monday is more your rPm airmass thundery showers (pulse-type storms etc). In this country, given past few years, the most widespread activity is acheived from rPm showery regimes more than imports sadly.

Blimey I had to read the first line of that post over and over again before I worked out what you meant

[Weather Wizard]

UKASF agreeing with your talk of recent eastward shifts

Areas Affected:

None

Synopsis:

Negatively-tilted upper ridge slowly pivots to become positively-tilted as an upper trough slowly approaches from the Atlantic.

Discussion:Once again warm mid-levels underneath the weakening upper ridge will result in unfavourable lapse rates for any noteworthy convection. Forecast soundings indicate a pretty dry atmosphere, with any cloud likely at very low levels (below 850mb). Lightning is very unlikely, although there are some indications that very late in the forecast period there may be a slight increased in instability over NW Scotland as a reuslt of the approaching weather fronts, with very maginal ELT's.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Whilst the GFS, and to some extent the Canadian model, suggests thundery imports late on Saturday and Saturday night, we take considerable caution at this range due to the infamous progressive eastern shift over consecutive model runs leading up to such an event.

Why couldn't I have been alive 20 years ago!!!

(http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/90)

Edited September 1, 2011 by Weather wizard

[staplehurst]

Wish I could remember the 90's, but I guess I was too young.

Anyway, the 12z UKMO model has shifted it further east, but it still gives it a good graze across the far SE and east of East Anglia, and is still further west than the GFS...

[DAVID SNOW]

Wish I could remember the 90's, but I guess I was too young.

Anyway, the 12z UKMO model has shifted it further east, but it still gives it a good graze across the far SE and east of East Anglia, and is still further west than the GFS...

Wish i could remember the 90's,but i guess i was too p.ssed.

[Sprites]

In 98 or 99 i recorded 34 thunder days, i got a Hi-8 camcorder in 98 and the storms seemed to want to show off to the camera, only 11 thunder days so far this year, and two of those days were a distant rumble, the average for Honington is 16 thunder days.

[Costa Del Fal]

18z not good at all. Saturday looks almost completely binned for the SE and now Monday is heading that way too all thanks to this stupid Easterly Shift in the models. At this rate, by the end of tomorrow, Monday will be just an average day.

[staplehurst]

18z not good at all. Saturday looks almost completely binned for the SE and now Monday is heading that way too all thanks to this stupid Easterly Shift in the models. At this rate, by the end of tomorrow, Monday will be just an average day.

The answer - don't look at each run

Edited September 1, 2011 by staplehurst

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z not good at all. Saturday looks almost completely binned for the SE and now Monday is heading that way too all thanks to this stupid Easterly Shift in the models. At this rate, by the end of tomorrow, Monday will be just an average day.

Story of the summer here- average and benign....just completely devoid of anything meteorologically interesting. Why buck the trend

[Costa Del Fal]

The answer - don't look at each run

:lol: But when you see the classic Easterly shift occur you cant help but watch how fast it happens. Hehe.

[Raidan]

From a Bristol newspaper

SUMMER ENDS WITH A BANG

THUNDERSTORMS will round off britains coldest summer in 20 years,Gale force winds and heavy rain will batter the N and W of England next week according to forecasters,Summer sizzled but never boiled and forget any hope of a Indian summer said PWS forecaster Jonathan Powell,First storm of autumn is threatening to come next week and Atlantic weather systems will take a grip through latter October into November,Flooding a distinct possibility and tornados also possible.

Not the full article but gives a idea of the what could happen next week and October and November.

[Harry]

From a Bristol newspaper SUMMER ENDS WITH A BANG THUNDERSTORMS will round off britains coldest summer in 20 years,Gale force winds and heavy rain will batter the N and W of England next week according to forecasters,Summer sizzled but never boiled and forget any hope of a Indian summer said PWS forecaster Jonathan Powell,First storm of autumn is threatening to come next week and Atlantic weather systems will take a grip through latter October into November,Flooding a distinct possibility and tornados also possible. Not the full article but gives a idea of the what could happen next week and October and November.

I noticed a similarly article in the [sorry - bile rising!] Daily Star yesterday where flooding and tornadoes were spoken of as a distinct possibility!

Flooding is not unusual in October/November when we have a train of strong Atlantic depressions sweeping in towards the end of the Hurricane season.

Tornadoes are possible at any time of the year.

So all in all nothing profound in either article to be honest!

[staplehurst]

I noticed a similarly article in the [sorry - bile rising!] Daily Star yesterday where flooding and tornadoes were spoken of as a distinct possibility!

Flooding is not unusual in October/November when we have a train of strong Atlantic depressions sweeping in towards the end of the Hurricane season.

Tornadoes are possible at any time of the year.

So all in all nothing profound in either article to be honest!

it's a bit like our friend Piers Corbyn predicting tornadoes in the Mid West for the Spring just gone - Sherlock!

[Coast]

it's a bit like our friend Piers Corbyn predicting tornadoes

He might be your friend.......

[Harry]

I notice the UKMO model is still keen to incorporate the far SE corner in the precip mass, while GFS is intent as ever to keep it firmly over the continent!

To say I'm upset is an understatement....the weather over the past few years really has been the cruellest it could be to us storm lovers in the UK (unless you live the NE of England).

Where there have been storms in the US they've been devastating - the continent has seen a fair of destruction from storms this year also! The one proper storm day in the SE this year (28th June) saw fatalities, widespread flooding, numerous building fires and electrical infrastructure damage due to the lightning.

Seems to be that we get far fewer, but when we do get them they're explosive!

Never know....UKMO forecast offers us a glimpse of hope, but GFS I fear will prevail....it's handled these plume events brilliantly of late (in comparison with other models)....but my excitement level on a scale of 1 to 10 is at around 2/10.

[Coast]

I see this extended outlook from UKASF this morning:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: As expected, GFS has exhibited the usual eastward shift of potential imports for Saturday night. However, it is interesting to note that, although also exhibiting an eastward shift, the UKMO and CMC models continue to suggest Kent, Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk are still at risk of elevated thunderstorms during Saturday night associated with surface cyclogenesis. This potential will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Yep, GFS continues the march Eastward and if taken in isolation, I'm afraid the most interesting thing on Saturday night is still X Factor

Our own NMM doesn't really give much more joy for the earlier part of the day as it comes into range:

[MP-R]

Monday's convective possibilities seem to have all but vanished. Monday was looking particulary good a few days ago with cold uppers being dragged in around a trough of about 1000mb. Now the air seems to stabilise ahead of another front of rain later in the day from the southwest.

[Harry]

Can safely say storm potential for tomorrow night is now at 0% in the SE

It appears the CF is going to zip through quicker than initially expected, aiding in the eastward shift!

Pony

[Coast]

I'm currently writing to my local MP about this whole situation, frankly it's not good enough

[Lauren]

Found my thunderstorm diaries that I used to keep (well 3 of them anyway).

By this time in '97 we had already had 5 thunderstorms, 2 of which were all nighters. According to the diary, I classed a thunderstorm as being over 30 minutes long, anything shorter was classed as 'a day with thunder' of which we had had 23.

Compare that to 2011, where we have had 2 thunder days and only one of those days could be considered a thunderstorm.

I'm sorry i just don't buy it when people say we are having the same amount of storms as ever.

On a separate note, it is almost quite smoggy today.

[Harry]

Yeah can safely rule out much happening this weekend!

Looking at ECM, a profound change in the September outlook once we get this week out of the way....if that comes off then phwoar, indian summer or what! I know I know, one run and its likely to change considerably...however, makes for nice viewing!

[gottolovethisweather]

Found my thunderstorm diaries that I used to keep (well 3 of them anyway).

Hi Lauren,

That is very revealing and I certainly am of the same impression that the best Thunder days & nights were in days gone by.

I believe that the weak sun, ENSO, SST's etc. all play a part, in that the spanish plume type events rarely reach us these days.

I love keeping my records, weather related or otherwise, in diaries and notebooks which is quite unlike having all of it stored online.

Maybe the weekend or early next week can produce something but I'll not get excited until nearer the event.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited September 2, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[staplehurst]

6z NAE brings thundery showers across east Kent tomorrow evening, and then just offshore from East Anglia. Quite possible for some lightning in distance across the sea along said eastern coasts.

[Coast]

Maybe the weekend or early next week can produce something

in Belgium and Holland.......