UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[gottolovethisweather]

in Belgium and Holland.......

No Coast, no, that never ever happens! I just cannot allow it to be said.

Just how many Thunder days and nights have those places acheived this year and the MCS counts must be very high too.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Costa Del Fal]

My fears regarding Monday are now true. It now looks like an average day with no convective potential except a slight risk up North but even this looks like going.

[Coast]

Just how many Thunder days and nights have those places acheived this year and the MCS counts must be very high too.

Looking into that, but here is some information for recent historical data on thunderstorms in Belgium (specifically Flemish Brabant) going back to 20 years ago:

The distribution of the number of thunderstorms in Zaventem (Flemish Brabant) about 24 hours following table shows: during the storm season (May / September) is a maximum in the evening peak period around 20 hours. This increase between 17h and 20h has everything to do with the temperature and maturity stage of thunderstorms. The temperature is reached with some delay after the maximum solar radiation, and with more storms delayed their reaching the adult stage. Outside the storm season, the temperature plays a minor role and gives a mixed picture depending on the weather. (Figure Source: Belgocontrol)

And then there is the geographical distribution in Belgium, where we have the famous "Thunder Alley" or "Lightning Flanders Valley" over Brabant and Antwerp to find. Large parts of West Flanders and East Flanders and Limburg know much less thunderstorms. For the Ardennes is that there is more incidence of lightning in the area between the Sambre and Meuse, while the High Fens again less experience thunderstorms. These statistics give a reasonable picture period 1951-1980 where and what to expect. (Figure Source: dissertation G. Buyse)

http://www.skystef.b...verwachting.htm

Here we go, SkyStefs weather bog for this year, month by month for the storm season May to end of August:

http://www.skystef.b...r-diary1105.htm

http://www.skystef.be/weather-diary1106.htm

http://www.skystef.be/weather-diary1107.htm

http://www.skystef.be/weather-diary1108.htm

August 18th 2011:

Starting cloudy with Ac and some light showers in morning. From noon large breaks, but from 1600 onwards moderate thundery outbreaks with at first gusts up to 40 kt, thunder activity eased off around 1930. Between 2100-2330 again some showers. Total rain = 20 mm. Today, between late afternoon-evening, moderate thunderstorms over all provinces. Over both Brabants, Limbourg, Liège, Hainaut and Namur some were severe due to large hail, strong winds (presumable due to a combination of weak tornado's/downbursts over Limbourg and eastern Vlaams-Brabant). Five people died during a pop festival at Kiewit near Hasselt (Limburg) due to a downburst. In the same provinces locally flooding did occur due to the very high rain rate, according to some automatic stations exceeding 300 mm/h. Peak gust via the official stations: Beauvechain 43 kt, Zaventem 37 kt, Ernage 35 kt. Local downburst and/or small tornado's over Limbourg and northeastern Brabant must have given gusts >50 kt. Highest amount of rainfall officially: Retie 39 mm, Ukkel 31 mm, Kleine Brogel 27 mm, Elsenborn 25 mm, Zaventem 23 mm. Via amateur stations: Kessel-Lo 57 mm. Check also a time lapse of a moderate thunderstorm edging Brussels Airport. In depth pictorial report follows later.

So who fancies storm chasing in Antwerp during the late afternoons of May or July next year then?

+ £100 fuel, £50 incidental car expenses, £40 a night accommodation add £25.00 a day other expenses means about £165.00 per person for 4 in a car over 7 days (6 nights) ???

[Lauren]

Feels like I'm abroad outside. Nice and hot and humid with a sort of smoggy feel in the air.

[Harry]

Feels like I'm abroad outside. Nice and hot and humid with a sort of smoggy feel in the air.

Lovely isn't it after 3-4 weeks of cool weather!

[Supacell]

Looking into that, but here is some information for recent historical data on thunderstorms in Belgium (specifically Flemish Brabant) going back to 20 years ago:

http://www.skystef.b...verwachting.htm

Here we go, SkyStefs weather bog for this year, month by month for the storm season May to end of August:

http://www.skystef.b...r-diary1105.htm

http://www.skystef.be/weather-diary1106.htm

http://www.skystef.be/weather-diary1107.htm

http://www.skystef.be/weather-diary1108.htm

August 18th 2011:

So who fancies storm chasing in Antwerp during the late afternoons of May or July next year then?

+ £100 fuel, £50 incidental car expenses, £40 a night accommodation add £25.00 a day other expenses means about £165.00 per person for 4 in a car over 7 days (6 nights) ???

I have thought about it a few times this year but the cost for doing it on my own would be much higher and so I have not been able to justify the expense.

Problem is with Europe is nothing is guaranteed, you could book a week off and then find nothing happens on that week. Would have to be a bit of a last minute job but I do think a few of us storm starved UK stranded people should attempt an escape to the stormy pastures of the nearby continent.

I have also given serious thought to saving up and going to Florida for 6/7 days. You are pretty much guaranteed a lightning show there if you go between June and end of August. Its not cheap though.

[Bluebreezer54]

I would be interested in that Coast. We tried to get something going along those lines over in Ukww but it came to nothing sadly. Supacell has a point about uncertanties and booking leave etc.

Slightly off topic but after some glorious sunshine for much of the day a haah, or sea fret is coming in over the cliffs here at Fairlight, and with it a noticeable cool down. It then dissapears as quickly as it arrived.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Bluebreezer54

[Coast]

I have thought about it a few times this year but the cost for doing it on my own would be much higher and so I have not been able to justify the expense.

I would be interested in that Coast.

We need to get Paul Sherman (and the guys on here who do the US stormrchasing) involved with the logistics side of things, but an initial list of interested parties could be useful.

My problem like yours is just as you book the week, Europe goes quite and all we do is drink Belgium Trappist ales and eat lush chocolates all week long (OK, it's got its upsides!! )

[Paul Sherman]

Logistics wise you need a radar (Obvious) with a dongle that is going to allow you to get Internet access whilst on the road (Think Netweather have the European Radar) And also a Streets and Trips for Europe (If one exists) Also you will need some things you would easily forget like a Uk/Euro Adapter for charging Cameras and Camcorders etc. Passport and Suntan Lotion obviously, you will also need the 19V Cigarette Adaptors if you are going to use a Netbook whilst travelling. We usually allow about $40-$50 per day in the US Which gets us something for Lunch (Usually around $8-$10) Evening Meal (Usually around $17-$30) and incidentals like sweeties and stuff around $10 per day. Equate that to Euros and it would probably be around 35 Euros per day.

I would elect a Team Leader to be the main chaser as too many opinions can seriously hamper your chances of Chasing Storms, Someone holding the Laptop with the radar and Someone GPS Navigating, also someone watching for signs of things happening out of the window. Your team of 4 is a very good number although it can also be done with 3 people.

It can be done but I would budget for a lot more than £165 per person for 6 nights or 7 days - Dont know if Robin has his costs right as the spending money alone on my rough estimates comes out at about £250

Regards

Paul S

[Adi F]

Oh Chocolates, you best count me in....

[Harry]

The biggest problem - is by the time you've booked your non-refundable tickets etc, the storm track swerves West across home!

[Coast]

The biggest problem - is by the time you've booked your non-refundable tickets etc, the storm track swerves West across home!

Well if you pay for the tickets and go, we'll stay here an chase through Sussex, Kent and Essex then! TBH the way the last 3 to 4 years have gone, I can't see imports or clippers giving us much bother next year.......

Dont know if Robin has his costs right as the spending money alone on my rough estimates comes out at about £250

I'm a cheap date!!!!!

[A.J]

My random thought for the day....Forget positive & negative North Atlantic Oscillations, forget spanish plumes, forget global warming, the fact is, is that I have made 75% less posts in this thread this summer than in any other year since I have been a NW member (I joined in 2005).....As a storm thread junkie, I think that the above statement is all the proof people need to show that it has been a totally pants year for storms in the UK (with exception of those incredibly lucky people up in the NE this year)!!

Thanks for allowing me to share that with you...My name is AJ, and I'm a stormaholic.....

[Coast]

My name is AJ, and I'm a stormaholic.....

Now, would anybody else in the group like to stand up, state their name and share their story and heartache with us?

[Harry]

Now, would anybody else in the group like to stand up, state their name and share their story and heartache with us?

My name is Cliff..... (joke), I am also a stormaholic, I became addicted in the late 90s after years of a vile affliction, and perpetual torment (brontophobia) throughout my youth. I discovered ways of overcoming my torment and year's of mother nature's abuse, however in the process became grossly addicted. In the past few years however, I have had intense withdrawal symptoms and fear this may lead to large scale depression (like those stormless ones we've had most of the summer)....

I am here today therefore to ask for £150,000,000,000 for a 0% share in my venture, which will see a large scale turbine field erected in W Belgium and Netherlands, propelling all of the necessary 'drug' back towards the UK. The financial benefits are non-existent however the socio-psychological benefits to many many people will be profound. I am aware this is not financially sound however years of Labour government has taught me it's not about the profitability or it's sustainability, it's about making people happy and investing record sums in something which will probably not even work.

Thank you and I'll happily answer any questions and provide as much feedback as I can

[Jane Louise]

My name is Jane Louise but you can call me Jane.

I too am a stormaholic and reside and spend most my time in 'The No Storms Club'

My story is to long to go into , but know, that I am severely storm starved.

[A.J]

My name is Cliff..... (joke), I am also a stormaholic, I became addicted in the late 90s after years of a vile affliction, and perpetual torment (brontophobia) throughout my youth. I discovered ways of overcoming my torment and year's of mother nature's abuse, however in the process became grossly addicted. In the past few years however, I have had intense withdrawal symptoms and fear this may lead to large scale depression (like those stormless ones we've had most of the summer)....

I am here today therefore to ask for £150,000,000,000 for a 0% share in my venture, which will see a large scale turbine field erected in W Belgium and Netherlands, propelling all of the necessary 'drug' back towards the UK. The financial benefits are non-existent however the socio-psychological benefits to many many people will be profound. I am aware this is not financially sound however years of Labour government has taught me it's not about the profitability or it's sustainability, it's about making people happy and investing record sums in something which will probably not even work.

Thank you and I'll happily answer any questions and provide as much feedback as I can

I applied to be the latest Dragon, but was turned down by the beeb, but despite that, I like the concept, the idea has great potential, I believe that my investment will give this product the quickest route to market....but....you're way out on your figures....How can you value your company at £150 billion with no current turnover?.....I actually think you've actually undervalued your business....With that in mind, I'll offer you £200 Billion for 0% of the business....Cash, cheque or card?.....

[Coast]

I actually think you've actually undervalued your business....With that in mind, I'll offer you £200 Billion for 0% of the business....Cash, cheque or card?.....

I'm oot !!!!

[Harry]

I'm oot !!!!

I knew of all the dragon's which would be posted, it would be Bannatyne

In other news, GFS 12z for tomorrow night has shunted storm potential back further West....still not progged to be more than a Kent clipper, it's the closest to our shores than the previous numerous runs have been...in fact there's about a 50-100 mile difference between 06z and 12z....interesting!

[Chloe]

Clouds developing here building high will it develope into storms have to wait and see!!!!

[staplehurst]

I knew of all the dragon's which would be posted, it would be Bannatyne

In other news, GFS 12z for tomorrow night has shunted storm potential back further West....still not progged to be more than a Kent clipper, it's the closest to our shores than the previous numerous runs have been...in fact there's about a 50-100 mile difference between 06z and 12z....interesting!

whilst the 12z NAE has shifted it further east. Not going to lie, I don't think this is going to happen tbh...

[Harry]

whilst the 12z NAE has shifted it further east. Not going to lie, I don't think this is going to happen tbh...

I agree, me neither...just keeping a beady eye on possibilities!

In the immortal words of Bonnie Tyler (well, touch of poetic licence) - "I need a T'storm, I'm holding out for a T'storm til the end of the night, and it's gotta be strong and it's gotta be bad and it's gotta last through the whole night"

Edited September 2, 2011 by Harry

[Jane Louise]

According to the MO there may be some heavy thundery rain from Sunday until Tuesday.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Drier for a time on Sunday, but rain spreading from the west later. Thereafter, windy with sunny/clear spells and showers, locally heavy and thundery. Turning very wet and windy Tuesday.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_weather.html

[Coast]

Damn you! DAMN YOU!!!!!! How close does this want to get but actually not give us a thing??????

But interestingly, UKASF show that area over the smallest part of SE Kent but a much bigger part of the West and North:

Areas Affected:

SLGT: East Kent, N England, Wales, SW England, W Country, W Midlands

Synopsis:

A deep low pressure system at all levels, containing the remnants of ex-Hurricane Irene, will anchor itself to the SE of Iceland. Associated trough axis approaches from the W late in the period, destabilising a warm and humid airmass ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.

Discussion:

A very marginal forecast for both shaded SLGT regions.

Firstly, concentrating on the cold front (the western of the two shaded SLGT regions). There are indications that convective elements may develop along said front as instability increases slightly, most likely later in the afternoon and evening. Topography may play an important role in aiding uplift, accompanied by a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE, and thus the best potential for lightning is likely to be to the N + E of high ground as a result of NEward-moving pulses along the cold front. It should be noted that lightning will be quite sporadic, and coverage, if any, should be very low (<10%).

The second area of interest is very late in the forecast period across the Dover Straits/Southern North Sea and perhaps East Kent. Destabilisation of the warm and humid airmass ahead of the approaching upper trough and surface cold front will cause scattered thunderstorms to develop across NE France and the Low Countries.

Depending on the speed of the upper trough/cold front, such storms may also develop over the Dover Straits/southern North Sea and far eastern English Channel, given a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. There is a risk of such storms affecting eastern parts of Kent - if this does happen, then in terms of coverage a MDT threat level would seem more appropriate, but given the uncertainties at the moment we issue a SLGT level. The main period of interest will be from 21z onwards, particularly nearer the end of the forecast period.

It is possible that further storms will develop after midnight and may graze close to the Essex coast but since that is after the end of this forecast period we are not able to extend the SLGT area any further north for the time being. Such lightning activity will, anyway, rapidly shift eastwards during the early hours of the morning as frontogenesis takes place, and rainfall becomes increasingly dynamic rather than convective in nature.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: There are indications for further embedded convection possible along the cold front over eastern counties on Sunday, but as ever uncertainties remain.

How's that for hedging your bets?!!!!

I'll stick some other charts in here for a giggle, but I'm not raising any hopes:

21st OWS seem to have it covered (or not actually)

Their UKMO interpretation is, in the same Bonnie Tyler stylee as Harry's post above 'holding out for a hero':

The reality is, it just isn't close enough is it?

Although looking at the KO index, I can see where UKASF may have drawn their West and Northwest slight risk from:

A little bit of convergence in that area

and convective precip:

I'd say that UKASF's use of the term slight risk, may even be over-egging it for today. But if you live in Deal or Dover, you might want to keep an eye out to sea and see if the neighbours are having a party again......

[Staffordshire]

Notice that area at risk in NW France could that give you guys anything?