Christmas Weather 2011 - A White One Or Not?

[Staffordshire]

Yeah, north staff moors have some preety high setelments, I'm at 165m ASL. That however in south staffs.

[GaryW]

I've been a long time lurker, and this is only my fifth post...

If there is any early/mid-December snow this year, I'd like it to stick around until the big day (the last two winters have seen the snow melt just before).

Edited September 9, 2011 by GaryW

[A Winter's Tale]

"It Will be Snowy this Christmas

Snowy at Home

It will be cold so cold

With all this Snow

This Christmas"

Judging by this Snowy and rather than Muddy forecast, I suspect we will be looking forward to a Brrrrrrriliat Christmas.

[summer blizzard]

Leeds is very poor in Westerlies. During the second cold spell of December 2010 we only had a few snow flurries here while west Leeds only had around 2 cm.. parts of the North East were the only places in the UK with no snow cover during that period due to those pesky Pennines! It was really cold though, with a permanent rime frost.. would've been better if that 25 cm of snow in early December stuck around though.

I am not so sure about. I would say rather that Leeds is poor in N or NW winds because of the Pennines however in W winds such as 25th Dec 04 or 19th Dec 10, Leeds is able to see snow, although not that much obviously.

[johnholmes]

been without broadband for several days so the latest CFS raw output I have is for 9th September

yet another variation, the 3rd so far out of the 5 I've posted

[Met4Cast]

been without broadband for several days so the latest CFS raw output I have is for 9th September

yet another variation, the 3rd so far out of the 5 I've posted

Are those charts available anywhere else other than NW Extra?

[Stuart]

I am sorry not posting right now much due to me not haveing broadband in my new place yet

Our latest update marginally increases the risk of Christmas snow. The reasoning for this is largely based on the September weather patterns to date, and the expectation of how they will develop in the next couple of weeks, along a firming up of ENSO predictions. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled and chilly weather in northern regions with a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in particular. Southern regions may also be on the cold side. Low pressure is expected to be close to the country, and possibly tracking significantly south, allowing colder air to dig in across more of the country.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 37%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

Edited September 10, 2011 by Stuart

[NorthernRab]

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 37%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

I feel like such a fool, all this time I've been wondering why you were only forecasting for North Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and Lancashire - didn't realise that you meant everyone north and everyone south of these places too!

[Stormyking]

I wish that it will be a white christmas this year, just to see it once will be amazing

[egret]

Ryan, you must have been unlucky last year - my son and I went out tobogganing both Xmas Eve and Xmas day last year - and that was a first for me in half a century! Xmas eve had stunning icicles from buidling roofs as we walked back from church in the evening. Whilst it did not snow on 'the day' the atmosphere was certainly there.

It will be interesting to see what happens this year. If the sunspot theories are correct, and if we do not get quite such a strong and early start to winter as last year (which i feel was exceptional), then there must be a very good chance of conditions being favourable for snow falling around Xmas Day compared with the longer term probability of this happening.

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our third update again marginally increases the risk of Christmas snow. The reasoning for this is largely based on the September weather patterns to date, and the expectation of how they will develop in the next couple of weeks, along a firming up of ENSO predictions. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled and chilly weather in northern regions with a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in particular. Southern regions may also be on the cold side. Low pressure is expected to be close to the country, and possibly tracking significantly south, allowing colder air to dig in across more of the country.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 37%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 24%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Eskimo]

Had a white christmas twice in a row 2009 & 2010 which were the only two I've witnessed in my 18 year existence , I feel privileged to of witnessed them

[Aaron]

2009 was a great Christmas..

2010 was white, strictly speaking, with a permanent rime frost and some flurries of snow previous nights giving an 'icing sugar' coating, but there wasn't really any snow about.. still was really really cold

Now if 2011 isn't a white Christmas it just won't feel 'normal'!

Edited September 16, 2011 by Aaron

[Crepuscular Ray]

ODGIH. No credible models can predict snowfall (definition of White Christmas is snowfall, not lying snow) anywhere on a given day 4+ months in advance. None of the professional ones, including N/W, do. There are far too many variables to base a projection for snow on 25 December on what you think ENSO's current activity entails.

I'm not saying it won't be a white Christmas where you are, just that the science doesn't yet exist to predict snowfall for anyone, anywhere at that length of time.

[Puts on tin hat and awaits incoming]

[Rollo]

ODGIH. No credible models can predict snowfall (definition of White Christmas is snowfall, not lying snow) anywhere on a given day 4+ months in advance. None of the professional ones, including N/W, do. There are far too many variables to base a projection for snow on 25 December on what you think ENSO's current activity entails.

I'm not saying it won't be a white Christmas where you are, just that the science doesn't yet exist to predict snowfall for anyone, anywhere at that length of time.

[Puts on tin hat and awaits incoming]

. Well I for one totally agree with you,only the likes of Piers Corbyn. Would risk a forecast like that and one snowflake on the top of Ben Nevis would give him cause to celebrate his success.

[Weather-history]

. Low pressure is expected to be close to the country, and possibly tracking significantly south, allowing colder air to dig in across more of the country.

http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

Absolutely laughable this: Low pressue is expected to be close to the country?

Expected?! The only thing that I would be expecting this far out is that Christmas Day is on the 25th of December.

I give you a Christmas Day forecast without even looking a single long range model.

High pressue possibly cover much of the country with early frost and patchy freezing fog. Cold where the fog lingers. Sunny spells. Maxima 5-6C

Edited September 17, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

(definition of White Christmas is snowfall, not lying snow)

Thats the bookie definition in order to win a bet but in order for it to be a white Christmas, it seems logical to me that snow has to be on the ground ergo a white covering. Wet snow and nothing lying can not realistically be called a white Christmas, IMO. There's no way, Christtmas 1999 was a white Christmas and Christmas 2009 and 2010 were not, IMO. We've heard the term of green Christmas, so how come wet snow not settling be called a white Christmas, when you can see green grass and one where snow lays thickly on the ground but brilliant sunshine not?

Why the bookies can't accept snow lying on the ground at 9am at a met office station being the definition I don't understand. I wonder how many bets they may have won if they took this

Edited September 17, 2011 by Mr_Data

[cyclonic happiness]

Thats the bookie definition in order to win a bet but in order for it to be a white Christmas, it seems logical to me that snow has to be on the ground ergo a white covering. Wet snow and nothing lying can not realistically be called a white Christmas, IMO. There's no way, Christtmas 1999 was a white Christmas and Christmas 2009 and 2010 were not, IMO. We've heard the term of green Christmas, so how come wet snow not settling be called a white Christmas, when you can see green grass and one where snow lays thickly on the ground but brilliant sunshine not?

Why the bookies can't accept snow lying on the ground at 9am at a met office station being the definition I don't understand. I wonder how many bets they may have won if they took this

I agree!

We had a white christams here last year, because we had some snow on the ground, but also, we had the most amazing hoar frosts which made every other surface white too!

In fact you couldn't have got more white if you'd sprayed the place with lime paint!

[greybing]

Forecast

Our third update again marginally increases the risk of Christmas snow. The reasoning for this is largely based on the September weather patterns to date, and the expectation of how they will develop in the next couple of weeks, along a firming up of ENSO predictions. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled and chilly weather in northern regions with a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in particular. Southern regions may also be on the cold side. Low pressure is expected to be close to the country, and possibly tracking significantly south, allowing colder air to dig in across more of the country.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 37%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 24%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

http://theweatherout...eather-forecast

Same in my neck of the woods though just lying snow.I would love to have a snow storm on the eve.

[Stuart]

Forecast

Our fourth update gives a slightly reduced chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the September weather patterns to date, and the expectation of how they will develop in the next couple of weeks, along a firming up of ENSO predictions. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled and possibly chilly weather in northern regions with a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in particular. Southern regions may be less cold.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 33%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

Forecast issued

Update 1, 01/09/2011

Update 2, 10/09/2011

Update 3, 13/09/2011

Update 4, 17/09/2011

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[johnholmes]

hi

This is the first of a series of pdf outputs showing how the raw CFS is suggesting winter may turn out and specifically for 25 december 2011.

Whilst I've placed it in the Christmas thread it is really about more than just that as I hope to use the raw CFS output along with inputs from other threads to try and see if I can pick out any trends 2-3 weeks ahead of the actual weather occurring.

it might work it might not-25 December we will have one answer and the end of February 2012 will complete that answer!

CFS for the winter with jh-issue 1-fri 16 september 2011.pdf

[ZONE 51]

Thanks JH, i enjoy reading your PDF files and look foward to the updates as much im sure as many others do!

[Stuart]

Thanks John for That

[Guest]

Would like to put in an order for say, 15 to 20 cms of the dry white stuff starting 24.12.2011 for my area, any chance you may be able to oblige?

[trisnow]

Would like to put in an order for say, 15 to 20 cms of the dry white stuff starting 24.12.2011 for my area, any chance you may be able to oblige?

I'd like to put a similar order in please but with an earlier start date, say 1st December? Many thanks in advance